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Old 12-05-2018, 01:12 PM   #1
Commish
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Default Summer 2019 - 7 Month Window Low Demand?

As an OKW VB owner I rely on the 7 month window - I am noticing wide 2BR availability at the 7 month window (even Beach Club) for July.

Summer Isn’t Peak Season at Disney World Anymore

I bring the above up as so many are convinced "buy where you want to stay" but from a 2BR Summer perspective demand appears to be low. (2017 I secured BLT & BWV for July 4th Week) I do enjoy when the Vero Beach Points can be deployed with the same value as BLT/BC/BWV/GC! - vs having the issue of "Do I use my expensive BC/BLT points staying at a different resort" Buying the cheap DVC resorts perhaps gives you more, not less flexibility as "Trading Up" does have a good deal of satisfaction


In need of a challenge I am working on Aulani 2 Br for mid June, I had no idea how high demand is there for June - Late June the 2BR Ocean View moves from 69 ppn to 84ppn (+22%) I currently have 3 of 6 nights 2BR Ocean View in hand and will work the waitlist till the bitter end. During my time stalking the RAT glanced at Grand Californian and as a pleasant surprise 3 night 2BR Grand Californian was available (booked on the spot - so will go to Disneyland for 3 night then Hawaii for 6 ! (but no WDW!) So 9 nights ~600 points thank you OKW & Vero contracts!
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Old 12-05-2018, 01:49 PM   #2
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Iím wondering if you are seeing more summer availability because of Star Wars? Maybe people are pushing their trips into fall/winter in order to see the new attractions?
At any rate, congratulations on your ďscoresĒ and good luck with the waitlist!
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Old 12-05-2018, 02:30 PM   #3
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I always try and confirm when a new buyer plans to travel and what size villa. Studio? Yes, it is probably best to buy where you don't mind staying for any time of the year.

1 and 2BR's? Then it depends on the resorts your interested in, how tied you are to a particular one and the times you will travel. Buying for late spring and summer travel makes it pretty easy to sleep around in the larger villas. And a wish to stay in larger villas makes any time of the year easier to trade into a non-home resort.
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:13 PM   #4
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Nice score! I've seen a lot of talk on here about how hard reservations are getting inside of 7 months. I do think its true for a few of the resorts, but I looked and over the past year, we've made reservations at 9 different resorts (a few times renting points), only one of which was with home booking window. Even yesterday I snagged Jan 4-6 at SSR in a 1 bdrm. But we've also gotten VGC, Aulani, Boardwalk, and Poly at 5 months or closer this past year in studios.

I think it depends most on your willingness to stalk the RAT vs wait on waitlists. I usually fulfill my own waitlist before the waitlist is fulfilled automatically.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Star Wars affects this summer some.
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:30 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsweeney View Post
I also wouldn't be surprised if Star Wars affects this summer some.
Agreed - I think summer and early fall might be a bit lower as people await SWL.

That said, I do think that summer is an increasingly less attractive time for many. The heat, the increased costs of travel, housing and tickets, the summer storms...it all adds up to a lessened summer market. I think MANY families of younger children are comfortable with some days of missed school in order to do Disney at a 'better' time. I know we did this for our first decade of visiting. It wasn't until this year (oldest in grade 8) that we felt we really couldn't do that anymore. Similarly, now that our older two are entering their teens, we are more likely to take a Disney break here and there to make room for other things that are age-appropriate. So, we avoided summers until our kids were too old to miss school, and now we won't go as often because there are other things we want to do with our older kids before they go off to college.

All in all, summer prices are high, weather is bad, and the people who go are often those with no option of traveling at another time. These factors have served to level out the crowds throughout the year in a way that there aren't as many high and low seasons as there were in the past. There are peak and low weeks, but not nearly as many long seasons of high and low crowds as there were in years past.
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:38 PM   #6
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TBH summer was never 'peak time' for DVC anyway. It's a higher point time and people try to go elsewhere.

The 2 bedroom phenomenon is true though. I find it is much easier to get a 2 bedroom now at 7 months than it was maybe 5 or so years ago. Seems studios are the way to go now which does help.

I've read that article before when it first came out. It's true that summer isn't as busy as it was. Conversely other times (fall for example) have really ramped up. It's busier mid-March than it is 1st of June. Busier early/mid Oct than 1st of June. I think the crowds are balancing.

If SWL affects summer then that would make it even nicer. However as a whole the last few years we've had remarks from CMs how summers aren't as crazy as they were. I think it has to do with prices and people having shifts in school schedules allowing weeks off in fall and winter when they didn't use to have them (we don't but that's okay).

This all said and done, I still say buy where you want to stay, or at least would always enjoy staying. One never knows how things will shift.
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:48 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ermindy1133 View Post
Iím wondering if you are seeing more summer availability because of Star Wars? Maybe people are pushing their trips into fall/winter in order to see the new attractions?
I think this has had a HUGE impact on the crowds! As I mentioned in another post a couple of months ago, we are taking a group of 10 (comprised of 3 families) in June. The planning for this trip began in August of 2017, as Disney had just opened Pandora but had not yet announced the opening date outside of giving a year for TSL or SWL. The major draw for everyone was SWL, being that we are all huge fans.

I had already begun tracking the crowds for June, 2019 when Disney announced that SWL wasn't opening until the fall. We decided to go ahead with the June 2019 plan (most of us will return in April, 2020 for the Star Wars 5K), and we added 3 days at the Royal Pacific at Universal.

Over the past 6 months, the projected crowds for June has dropped DRASTICALLY! I mean, there are days that AK is projected to have a crowd level of 4!
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Old 12-05-2018, 04:01 PM   #8
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Summer is not peak season, Spring is the peak season.



If you look at point requirements of the months of March and April, they us more points then any other consecutive two month window.
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Old 12-05-2018, 06:09 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomandrobin View Post
Summer is not peak season, Spring is the peak season.



If you look at point requirements of the months of March and April, they us more points then any other consecutive two month window.
Most of summer is in the Magic season as well. So in terms of points, they're the same. In terms of crowds I think spring can be worse but not always. For our times March is worse than June.
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Old 12-05-2018, 07:08 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by helenabear View Post
Most of summer is in the Magic season as well. So in terms of points, they're the same. In terms of crowds I think spring can be worse but not always. For our times March is worse than June.

It is, but my point was that the Spring period requires more points then any other two month period = the busiest time. The two weeks around Easter is nuts, no two weeks during the summer equal those days.



The busiest summer week is July 4th, but the week following July 4th is one of the slowest weeks of the summer. Both August and June are affected by various school schedules.



I did a month by month point analysis recently (about a month or two ago) that showed point usage. I was surprised by the numbers and that spring time required more points.
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