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Old 02-12-2018, 03:36 PM   #1
Christwo
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Default Worth Buying Resale at These High Prices?

Hello,

Long time lurker first time posting. We've been looking to purchase DVC for around 6 months now. Done large amounts of research up and down and were ready to buy as soon as we close on our new home (this week.) The price increases have pushed all of the Florida resorts near or over $100PP minus SS.

The math I've been working with is based on us taking 2 trips a year which we currently do. We've been staying on property typically in pop century with their referred rooms. We pay around $125-175 a night on that. We also are platinum AP holders. So with that I factor around $1600+- in rooms yearly. With the old 25 point Add on route SS made major sense. Pay in the 80sPP get a 25 add-on and save significantly on AP renewal and much nicer hotel accommodations for about what I'm already spending annually.

With the changes now it's looking like it would be a better idea to possibly buy BLT and rent any points I didn't use. I guess we are just a bit overwhelmed by the large jump and wondering if it's still the right time. In theory prices should continue to climb and get even more expensive but if we are at the start of a correction prices could come back down to what they were 6 months ago maybe?

In short we want to buy and we are ok paying a premium but want some feedback on why people are choosing to buy DVC especially at the current resale prices. I didn't mention it above but we would be financing short term <6 months as the 20% down on our house took some of our savings but I can put away 5 to 6k monthly to pay off this year. Would be financing purely to lock in current price per point.

Any feedback is appreciated thank you.
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Old 02-12-2018, 05:45 PM   #2
cmrdgrs
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Have you figured out how your savings might be negated due to financing? I haven't run the numbers, but it would seem that if you have to finance maybe you should just continue to rent. Renting from either a trusted board member or a broker might be the better way to go for you at this point in time. Just my 2 cents.

BTW: Glad to have you out of the lurking shadows!
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Old 02-12-2018, 05:52 PM   #3
Christwo
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The financing would be short term if points increased by even $4 a point on average in the next 6 months it would be a better deal for me to finance with those high rates and a no pre-payment penalty loan. We would be buying a decent amount of points 200-250. I could honestly pay cash but I know my wife is going to want home things for our new house as well.

I guess I am more focused on the long term on will disney's "rack rate" pricing continue to rise at such a rate that I can one day be like many other posts on this site who bought in $30-40 a point lower than what current rates are. Or is this the potential top of the market.
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Old 02-12-2018, 05:55 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Christwo View Post
Hello,

Long time lurker first time posting. We've been looking to purchase DVC for around 6 months now. Done large amounts of research up and down and were ready to buy as soon as we close on our new home (this week.) The price increases have pushed all of the Florida resorts near or over $100PP minus SS.

The math I've been working with is based on us taking 2 trips a year which we currently do. We've been staying on property typically in pop century with their referred rooms. We pay around $125-175 a night on that. We also are platinum AP holders. So with that I factor around $1600+- in rooms yearly. With the old 25 point Add on route SS made major sense. Pay in the 80sPP get a 25 add-on and save significantly on AP renewal and much nicer hotel accommodations for about what I'm already spending annually.

With the changes now it's looking like it would be a better idea to possibly buy BLT and rent any points I didn't use. I guess we are just a bit overwhelmed by the large jump and wondering if it's still the right time. In theory prices should continue to climb and get even more expensive but if we are at the start of a correction prices could come back down to what they were 6 months ago maybe?

In short we want to buy and we are ok paying a premium but want some feedback on why people are choosing to buy DVC especially at the current resale prices. I didn't mention it above but we would be financing short term <6 months as the 20% down on our house took some of our savings but I can put away 5 to 6k monthly to pay off this year. Would be financing purely to lock in current price per point.

Any feedback is appreciated thank you.
I'm admittedly confused on why the changes to qualifying for benefits now has you thinking BLT is a better purchase than SSR for you? And buying more points and renting some out? Since you would be financing I'm doubtful that buying more - thus financing more - would make sense.
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:05 PM   #5
Christwo
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Originally Posted by Goofygrl View Post
I'm admittedly confused on why the changes to qualifying for benefits now has you thinking BLT is a better purchase than SSR for you? And buying more points and renting some out? Since you would be financing I'm doubtful that buying more - thus financing more - would make sense.
I guess maybe I don't fully understand the rental aspect of the points. I figure that if by the end of the year I own a BLT set of say 250 points free and clear that I am left with $1,480 in dues + annual increases. I was factoring that say on a year where we don't want to travel as often we could rent some of our points out to cover some / all of the dues and use the remainder. I was under the impression that if Disney ever slowed down, people may want to prioritize BLT over SSR especially if you can book BLT in that 11 month window. I could and sounds like am totally be off base with that comment. Ideally I was just saying that it seems like BLT maybe worth a purchase over SSR due to desirability. Everything I've seen seems to point to SSR as just buy it to get in cheap and try and book any other resort at the 7 month mark. Am I off base with that comment?
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:08 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Christwo View Post
I guess maybe I don't fully understand the rental aspect of the points. I figure that if by the end of the year I own a BLT set of say 250 points free and clear that I am left with $1,480 in dues + annual increases. I was factoring that say on a year where we don't want to travel as often we could rent some of our points out to cover some / all of the dues and use the remainder. I was under the impression that if Disney ever slowed down, people may want to prioritize BLT over SSR especially if you can book BLT in that 11 month window. I could and sounds like am totally be off base with that comment. Ideally I was just saying that it seems like BLT maybe worth a purchase over SSR due to desirability. Everything I've seen seems to point to SSR as just buy it to get in cheap and try and book any other resort at the 7 month mark. Am I off base with that comment?
No, you're not off base. BLT at 11 months out is more of a hot commodity. At 7 months, points are points.
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:10 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Christwo View Post
The financing would be short term if points increased by even $4 a point on average in the next 6 months it would be a better deal for me to finance with those high rates and a no pre-payment penalty loan. We would be buying a decent amount of points 200-250. I could honestly pay cash but I know my wife is going to want home things for our new house as well.

I guess I am more focused on the long term on will disney's "rack rate" pricing continue to rise at such a rate that I can one day be like many other posts on this site who bought in $30-40 a point lower than what current rates are. Or is this the potential top of the market.
As far as this being the top of the market - I couldn't answer that question - my feeling is no, but my crystal ball has this habit of fogging up at the worst possible times
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Tuesday, 12/26/17 - Saturday, 12/30/17 - BLT
Saturday, 12/30/17 - Sunday, 01/07/18 - VGF (Running 1st 1/2 Marathon - 01/06/18)
Wednesday, 06/27/18 - Wednesday, 07/11/18 - HHI

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Old 02-12-2018, 06:34 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Christwo View Post
I guess maybe I don't fully understand the rental aspect of the points. I figure that if by the end of the year I own a BLT set of say 250 points free and clear that I am left with $1,480 in dues + annual increases. I was factoring that say on a year where we don't want to travel as often we could rent some of our points out to cover some / all of the dues and use the remainder. I was under the impression that if Disney ever slowed down, people may want to prioritize BLT over SSR especially if you can book BLT in that 11 month window. I could and sounds like am totally be off base with that comment. Ideally I was just saying that it seems like BLT maybe worth a purchase over SSR due to desirability. Everything I've seen seems to point to SSR as just buy it to get in cheap and try and book any other resort at the 7 month mark. Am I off base with that comment?
Points rent at 7 months without issue. Just using a broker is an easy way. In their payments it's only $1 less per point for SSR points vs BLT. Considering you'd pay $40+ per point more for BLT which means tying up a whole lot more funds plus additional financing charges because of the larger up front cost I'd say that thinking is probably not correct to perhaps start coming out ahead after 40 years. You might be able to make it a bigger difference if you rent them out yourself but a rough estimate might be 20 years to start getting even with BLT vs SSR.

IMO the only reason to buy BLT over SSR is because you feel you have to stay at BLT. Plus there's a protection SSR if DVC prices go down. You'll have paid less and the decrease is likely to be less. Of course if there's an increase BLT is more likely to increase.

But in the end I'd only recommend buying what you intend to use.
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Old 02-12-2018, 07:27 PM   #9
Christwo
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But in the end I'd only recommend buying what you intend to use.
That is a whole different can of worms. We love the Poly and originally when we started looking it was pay cash for the Poly hands down. I've seen people on several sites complain about how tight poly is now due to the Bungalows. That's why we shifted to a "value" between SSR/BLT. It sounds like I just need to get a decent point contract at SSR and pay cash. We really enjoy going to the park and would be happy staying at SSR. Since our points can transfer at the 7 month window regardless, we may be able to get a few nights sometimes at other resorts. I'm going to look at putting offers in this evening. Thank you!
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Old 02-12-2018, 07:54 PM   #10
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SSR is still the best bang for the buck.
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