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Old 06-15-2017, 11:50 AM   #1
TexasChick
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Default Resale Market Trend Observations

I noticed a trend, and this may have been pointed out before, but I wanted to share for those of you looking to purchase or sell via the resale market. I have had multiple brokers tell me that right now is a sellers' market and to wait until the fall to purchase when prices drop if I think the prices are too high. I am only going to talk about Bay Lake Towers (BLT) as that is what I have been tracking, but this holds true for most of the properties. I looked back at the last 3 years of resale history that I could find. It seems like in late September-October, the prices start to drop as the market gets flooded with listings for all properties. People are thinking about paying those dues again in January as well as Christmas time expenses coming up, so they list their contracts. However, because of those same two factors, buyers want to wait until after the first of the year when Christmas is over and the dues have already been paid. Also, home property taxes are due then, which can be a large amount as well, and I have to imagine this also affects the market. Even though the prices are lower in the early spring with a lot of listings, there are a ton of people looking to buy because of Christmas bonuses, tax refunds, etc., so the inventory drops dramatically by the time you hit April or May. Disney also seems to exercise ROFR a lot when the prices are lower during this period, which makes sense.

Just looking at BLT, a lot of contracts went for $120+ with stripped points between May-September 2016, and it looks to be on track to do that again this year, maybe even a little bit higher than last year. However, starting really in September/October, the prices start to come down below $110pp, and sellers are having to reduce their prices. There are exceptions to every trend, but it seems to be a sellers' market in the late spring-summer, and a buyer's market in the early fall-early spring.

With all that said, some cannot wait for the market, and they need the points NOW to book a trip. There is value in that as well because even at $125pp for BLT, you are still getting a substantial deal over buying directly from Disney or booking a cash reservation, and you have access to your points sooner rather than later. Even as I post this, brokers are being flooded with emails and calls from buyers looking to buy at the higher prices which is honestly great for me as a current owner. All the brokers are saying they can't get listings fast enough, and people will pay just about any price. In summary, if you are an owner looking to sell, now is the time because the market seems to shift in a couple of months. If you are a buyer, even though you may get a lower price in a few months, the dreaded ROFR Monster is still there to keep things in check! I hope this helps someone on the fence about buying or selling.
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Old 06-15-2017, 12:00 PM   #2
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Yep, it's a bloodbath out there for certain resorts. I am worried that some of this price inflation will stay intact given higher rental rates through brokers and the stock market still on the upswing over all, but you are undoubtedly right that when people have all those credit card bills to pay around the holidays, they aren't so keen on the MF's they have to pay before thinking about airfare and park tickets.

I only wish I had more clarity on my finances in Feb when prices were a good $10pp cheaper on almost every property.
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Old 06-15-2017, 12:08 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by pdude81 View Post
Yep, it's a bloodbath out there for certain resorts. I am worried that some of this price inflation will stay intact given higher rental rates through brokers and the stock market still on the upswing over all, but you are undoubtedly right that when people have all those credit card bills to pay around the holidays, they aren't so keen on the MF's they have to pay before thinking about airfare and park tickets.

I only wish I had more clarity on my finances in Feb when prices were a good $10pp cheaper on almost every property.
That's the great thing about an open market though: price generally reflects supply and demand. Also, remember that MOST owners don't rent out their points; they use them. The rental prices are good for those that rent out from time-to-time, but they are irrelevant to 90% of owners. I read somewhere that only 10% of owners rent out their points which isn't surprising considering that a lot of people add-on to bring family members with them or go more often (the latter is the case for us). Also, the rental point brokers are constantly advertising that they have low inventory and need points because the majority of us use our points most of, if not all, the time.
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Old 06-15-2017, 12:25 PM   #4
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That's the great thing about an open market though: price generally reflects supply and demand. Also, remember that MOST owners don't rent out their points; they use them. The rental prices are good for those that rent out from time-to-time, but they are irrelevant to 90% of owners. I read somewhere that only 10% of owners rent out their points which isn't surprising considering that a lot of people add-on to bring family members with them or go more often (the latter is the case for us). Also, the rental point brokers are constantly advertising that they have low inventory and need points because the majority of us use our points most of, if not all, the time.
Yes, I believe there are quite a few people who just let their points go unused half the time or waste a lot of their value trading into the concierge collection. I'm actually surprised it's as high as 10% renting points just because a lot of these resorts sold before spending every minute looking up something on the internet became a thing. So based on that viewpoint I think there are a lot of people that assume they could never sell or rent out their timeshare based on the anecdotal horror stories about unloading one.

Imagine if everybody who bought BWV in the low 60's knew that they could get in the ballpark of $100pp for it now after using it for 20 years already. It would be interesting to see how quickly those listing prices would drop. Regardless, I hope that supply goes up a bit in the winter since as you pointed out it normally does. Who knows how high the direct costs will go otherwise?
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Old 06-15-2017, 02:58 PM   #5
goldilocks_63
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Talking I think BLT will go up in price

I believe BLT will continue to rise in price, so if you want you should get now.....

Because DVC may put in a BLT II in, and that direct price will be even higher....

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Old 06-15-2017, 03:17 PM   #6
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The best resales I purchased were in September and October (2011 and 2013). Stock market decline, over saturated resales market and loaded contracts made purchasing during these times a steal. This was a happening that I don't think will ever be repeated.

I would not use this data in your comparisons, but rather only go back about 2 years.
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Old 06-15-2017, 04:58 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by goldilocks_63 View Post
I believe BLT will continue to rise in price, so if you want you should get now.....
Well technically, you are incorrect, as in about 40 years a BLT contract will be worth $0. But yes, I agree that prices are very reasonable for that resort, even now.
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Old 06-15-2017, 05:50 PM   #8
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Over the last couple of days, have been getting email notices with noticeably more DVC listings than over the last month.

Doubt it's the start of any pattern, but still surprising to see.
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Old 06-15-2017, 05:56 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by BWV Dreamin View Post
The best resales I purchased were in September and October (2011 and 2013). Stock market decline, over saturated resales market and loaded contracts made purchasing during these times a steal. This was a happening that I don't think will ever be repeated.

I would not use this data in your comparisons, but rather only go back about 2 years.
I just went back to 2015 onward. Also, I have had MULTIPLE brokers tell me that there are substantially more listings in the fall than in the late spring/early summer. I am jealous of your 2011 and 2013 deals!

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Over the last couple of days, have been getting email notices with noticeably more DVC listings than over the last month.

Doubt it's the start of any pattern, but still surprising to see.
I agree about getting more emails. However, I have also noticed that the prices are much higher than they were a few months ago. It's not the end of the world if we only own at VGF and never add-on at a different resort since we LOVE it there!
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Old 06-15-2017, 06:19 PM   #10
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I agree about getting more emails. However, I have also noticed that the prices are much higher than they were a few months ago. It's not the end of the world if we only own at VGF and never add-on at a different resort since we LOVE it there!
So true about those rising prices!
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