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Old 07-11-2018, 02:47 PM   #21
Loro
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Originally Posted by tink711 View Post
@OP something else to consider is rising interest rates. I think a lot of new buyers are financing a large portion of the purchase. When interst rates are low people are less cautious about borrowing. Even if the economy stays strong, rising interest rates could change the way people think about borrowing large sums of money for luxury purchases.
That is definitely another part of it.
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Old 07-11-2018, 03:03 PM   #22
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We will have to definitely wait and see how hard the next downturn hits. It may be different in that prices are much higher this time around.



Perhaps they may try to just weather it out. I'm not sure they will do it for an extended time due to the increased number of DVCs and prices being so much higher now. They would have to hold onto a lot of inventory for years even with a mild downturn since it can scare off consumers.
I'm very confident they would weather it. Have you looked at the history of points costs? They would likely offer incentives, but that's about it.

It wasn't that long ago that people were struggling. In fact just in the last few years people have started to recover in some cases. It didn't stop them then and I doubt it would considering how severe and long term that recession was.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:14 PM   #23
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Did you buy direct in 2008 and 2012 and 213? We purchased SSR direct in January 2008 and we paid about $90 per point. Sure wish I had bought about 60 more points originally....
Nope. All resale
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Old 07-11-2018, 06:01 PM   #24
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We bought in 2012 - 2 BWV resale contracts - one for $57 pp and one for $63 pp. I recently saw a stripped contract resale for $123. That's quite a gap.
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Old 07-11-2018, 06:38 PM   #25
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How much did resale prices drop in the last recession? At the time, I was interested in BWV and it seems that prices were around $65-75 per point in 2009, but I have no idea what they were going for when the economy was healthy in 2006 or 2007.
In 2011 I purchased 150 pt. VWL/BRV for $52/pt. Triple (fully) loaded. I sold this contract for $82/pt. last year .I rented the original loaded points (2010,2011) thus lowering my original buy in. Continued to rent it ( used half rented half) for the 6 years I owned it. Needless to say I made a nice profit off of this contract.
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Old 07-12-2018, 04:53 PM   #26
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We bought a 100 pt triple loaded contract in 2013 for $65 pp. I just sold it completely stripped through 2020 for $105. Of course, I turned around and put that money towards a 125 pt CCV at $176.
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Old 07-12-2018, 05:07 PM   #27
BEAM4DVC
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We bought a 100 pt triple loaded contract in 2013 for $65 pp. I just sold it completely stripped through 2020 for $105. Of course, I turned around and put that money towards a 125 pt CCV at $176.
Then that means you saved money!! According to the DVC website, CCV is $182/point!! You bargain hunter!!!
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Old 07-12-2018, 05:15 PM   #28
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Then that means you saved money!! According to the DVC website, CCV is $182/point!! You bargain hunter!!!
That's because I got a $750 incentive which took it from $182 pp to $176 pp.
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Old 07-12-2018, 06:14 PM   #29
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In looking at the resale prices over the years, I feel that resale prices have been around 50% of direct prices. Would like to hear others’ opinions on this statistic. So, by that measure resale prices look a little rich, but as long as they are cheaper than direct they will be attractive.
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Old 07-12-2018, 06:27 PM   #30
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That's because I got a $750 incentive which took it from $182 pp to $176 pp.
As I said!!! You saved money!!!

Just FYI.... You could have saved even more money by buying more points, right!?!?!?!?
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