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Old 08-10-2018, 08:46 AM   #11
swilly99
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thinking points again. Not sure I will jump but looking at VERO for cheap points and the delta on maintenance does not seem that high anymore. Would you buy VERO these days? if not why?
We bought Vero in 2008 because it was all that we could afford at the time. While it limits us to the 7 month window for ressies at WDW we have not regretted our decision and we have been able to the ressies that have have wanted/needed including a Grand Villa in Nov.. Our MFs have have not gone up that much in the time that we have owned either IMO.
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Old 08-10-2018, 09:15 AM   #12
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We bought Vero in 2008 because it was all that we could afford at the time. While it limits us to the 7 month window for ressies at WDW we have not regretted our decision and we have been able to the ressies that have have wanted/needed including a Grand Villa in Nov.. Our MFs have have not gone up that much in the time that we have owned either IMO.
Thanks. Great info!
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Old 08-10-2018, 12:52 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by NYDVC View Post
thinking points again. Not sure I will jump but looking at VERO for cheap points and the delta on maintenance does not seem that high anymore. Would you buy VERO these days? if not why?
I think there are two factors working against it:

- It is now more important to buy where you stay, especially if you want one of the more desirable rooms/properties with lower points cost, better view, etc.

- For those that know they want to keep their DVC holdings a long time, the MF can exceed the point cost savings in about 10 years I believe.

I think VB points CAN make sense for those that would use the points there occasionally, know they will not have the points that long overall, and are OK with rolling the dice as to availability with the WDW resorts.
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Old 08-10-2018, 01:24 PM   #14
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I think there are two factors working against it:

- For those that know they want to keep their DVC holdings a long time, the MF can exceed the point cost savings in about 10 years I believe.
For VB ($58 avg price) vs. SSR ($106 avg price) it would take 19+ years for the MF to exceed the point cost savings:

$106-$58= $51 / $2.67 (delta on MF) = 19 That does not include the loss of opportunity for the increased PP you pay.

Given SSR is the fourth cheapest property with the lowest MF, the break even point is even longer for most other properties. For VGF for example it's 46 years, and again that does not take into account the loss of opportunity. If that is taken into account then you'd never make up for the increased PP.

$169-$58 = $111 / $2.39 = 46.

I'm aware VB expire in 2042, but is using that as an example as it has the highest MF.

I know many people like to say that in the long run MF is more important, but if it's correct that the average DVC owner hold onto a property for 7 years (I've seen that posted several places, but have no idea if it's correct) then that's not the case. Chances are that even if you hold onto your deed until it expire then financially it makes more sense to buy the cheapest property with a few exceptions. This obviously does not take into account that MF increases at different rates from year to year depending on resort.

If you don't mind staying where there's availability at 7 months, then I think buying VB makes sense.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:33 PM   #15
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For VB ($58 avg price) vs. SSR ($106 avg price) it would take 19+ years for the MF to exceed the point cost savings:

$106-$58= $51 / $2.67 (delta on MF) = 19 That does not include the loss of opportunity for the increased PP you pay.
I agree with you 100% that in the short term, VB can make a lot of sense. But it would be well before 19 years that SSR would offer a better value due to the resale value that has been omitted.

Assuming nominal figures, in 20 years, VB would be worth close to $0 on the resale market. SSR would still have 16 years left and presumably close to full value, or $106 in current value. Assuming a point differential of about $100 between resorts and a modest 100 pt contract, you would be ahead about $5K on an SSR contract at the 20 year mark after subtracting the roughly $5K buy-in cost differential today.

I would estimate somewhere in the 13-15 year timeframe the favorability switches from VB to SSR, all other aspects kept equal.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:37 PM   #16
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Saratoga Springs -- $106 / ROFR -- 175 points @ $95
Those were where my add on 50 points came from.
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:43 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Jotunheim View Post
I agree with you 100% that in the short term, VB can make a lot of sense. But it would be well before 19 years that SSR would offer a better value due to the resale value that has been omitted.

Assuming nominal figures, in 20 years, VB would be worth close to $0 on the resale market. SSR would still have 16 years left and presumably close to full value, or $106 in current value. Assuming a point differential of about $100 between resorts and a modest 100 pt contract, you would be ahead about $5K on an SSR contract at the 20 year mark after subtracting the roughly $5K buy-in cost differential today.

I would estimate somewhere in the 13-15 year timeframe the favorability switches from VB to SSR, all other aspects kept equal.
I don't think SSR will be even remotely close to selling for $100 in 20 years. Prices are at an all time high right now. That's just speculation on my part obviously, but I paid $79 PP for SSR one year ago almost to the date. Next recession I might be underwater on it (not that it matters to me).

Either way, I think MF is over rated as a factor in deciding on where to buy
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Old 08-10-2018, 04:57 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Jotunheim View Post
I think there are two factors working against it:

- It is now more important to buy where you stay, especially if you want one of the more desirable rooms/properties with lower points cost, better view, etc.

- For those that know they want to keep their DVC holdings a long time, the MF can exceed the point cost savings in about 10 years I believe.

I think VB points CAN make sense for those that would use the points there occasionally, know they will not have the points that long overall, and are OK with rolling the dice as to availability with the WDW resorts.
thanks for the input. Great points. We certainly go to vero once every two years so thats a consideration. However, we have no problems getting the rooms we want at 7 months.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesper View Post
For VB ($58 avg price) vs. SSR ($106 avg price) it would take 19+ years for the MF to exceed the point cost savings:

$106-$58= $51 / $2.67 (delta on MF) = 19 That does not include the loss of opportunity for the increased PP you pay.

Given SSR is the fourth cheapest property with the lowest MF, the break even point is even longer for most other properties. For VGF for example it's 46 years, and again that does not take into account the loss of opportunity. If that is taken into account then you'd never make up for the increased PP.

$169-$58 = $111 / $2.39 = 46.

I'm aware VB expire in 2042, but is using that as an example as it has the highest MF.

I know many people like to say that in the long run MF is more important, but if it's correct that the average DVC owner hold onto a property for 7 years (I've seen that posted several places, but have no idea if it's correct) then that's not the case. Chances are that even if you hold onto your deed until it expire then financially it makes more sense to buy the cheapest property with a few exceptions. This obviously does not take into account that MF increases at different rates from year to year depending on resort.

If you don't mind staying where there's availability at 7 months, then I think buying VB makes sense.
for me the points are just for that. getting something at the 7 month mark. great points thanks!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jotunheim View Post
I agree with you 100% that in the short term, VB can make a lot of sense. But it would be well before 19 years that SSR would offer a better value due to the resale value that has been omitted.

Assuming nominal figures, in 20 years, VB would be worth close to $0 on the resale market. SSR would still have 16 years left and presumably close to full value, or $106 in current value. Assuming a point differential of about $100 between resorts and a modest 100 pt contract, you would be ahead about $5K on an SSR contract at the 20 year mark after subtracting the roughly $5K buy-in cost differential today.

I would estimate somewhere in the 13-15 year timeframe the favorability switches from VB to SSR, all other aspects kept equal.
When you mention only 5K more and the break even at 15 years say, it seems to make sense to go with SSR. having 16 more years of points (or resale value) is a plus for SSR. I will be 82 when VB contract closes, so I am not sure I will care a lot at that time. :-)

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Originally Posted by Jesper View Post
I don't think SSR will be even remotely close to selling for $100 in 20 years. Prices are at an all time high right now. That's just speculation on my part obviously, but I paid $79 PP for SSR one year ago almost to the date. Next recession I might be underwater on it (not that it matters to me).

Either way, I think MF is over rated as a factor in deciding on where to buy
Yeah, AS much as I don't like the word recession, then would be a great time to buy points. I brought OKW in early 90's for $51 pp and I can get that and more right now. So I am not convinced that SSR will drop considerable. The real question is when will the resorts start losing value because of age of contract.I agree with you 16 years is not long and most likely will at least start declining at that time.

thanks for the input.
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