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Old 07-17-2019, 03:29 AM   #11
DBridge
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Originally Posted by tomandrobin View Post
Nine years ago the discussion was on how far the prices will actually go......

How times have changed. Personally, I think we are nearing peak DVC pricing for resales......at least for 5-6 years.

What will be interesting is to see how the 2042 resales hold up as hit 20 years and 15 years from expiration.
I gotta think this is close to the peak for resale value. There are a handful of resorts that approach or even exceed direct Riviera pricing.
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:12 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by DBridge View Post
I gotta think this is close to the peak for resale value. There are a handful of resorts that approach or even exceed direct Riviera pricing.

I mostly agree, but only for now. Over time, the prices will go up just because of inflationary pressure of the dollar. In 2042, we lose 5.5 DVC resorts. That has to have a long term effect too.
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:18 AM   #13
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Is anybody paying attention to length of time Sales remain versus Sold ?
It doesnít seem as if the turnover is happening like the good old days .
I am amazed to see so many Sales booths .
I think they might be building another more permanent kiosk in DS .
That might be a great job .... either that are the person in the Disney Visa booth ! Talk about getting paid to just show up...
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Old 07-17-2019, 06:51 AM   #14
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One of the reasons for selling BRV for CCV. Even with the studio availability issues, I see CCV holding its resale values (especially my fixed week) vs. BRV. 10-15 years is probably all we have left for Disney so wanted to take advantage of the higher resales price for BRV.
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Old 07-17-2019, 08:17 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by SnowWhite4 View Post
Does anyone think they will offer extensions on the 2042 resorts as we get closer? I know they did a number of years ago for OKW but was curious if they would again and include all the 2042 expiring resorts.
I doubt it. Why do an extension when you can sell it new at full price.
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Old 07-17-2019, 12:06 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by FessParker1 View Post
I doubt it. Why do an extension when you can sell it new at full price.
With a while new point inflated point chart!
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Old 07-17-2019, 01:03 PM   #17
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What should the value of DVC be?

I just did a quick calculation of BCV as a sanity check. I used current rack rates and compared a DVC studio with a hotel room. I ignored factors like daily housekeeping, parking, perks, etc. I assumed inflation for MFs and room rates would be the same. I used a 5% cost of money, which is more than the risk free rate and less than the pie in the sky 8% some would have you use. I assumed that you would hold Beach club until the end and have no terminal value and that there are 23 use years left. I came up with well over $350 per point value.

The thing is I don't know anyone who would pay $4,000 to stay in a standard view Beach Club room in February for a week. But I suppose there may be people doing just that.
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Old 07-17-2019, 04:58 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by MMC1 View Post
Disney will not want to lose the faithful. They will have something to keep us hooked.
I donít think so. I think that the demographic that Disney wants has changed over time. Disney seems to want members with vast amounts of disposable income. I believe that Disney will be glad to replace us ordinary folk with new, richer people.

They will rebuild the old resorts with amenities designed to appeal to the new demographic. They will have fewer members, but those members will spend more.
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Old 07-17-2019, 08:26 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boundin' View Post
What should the value of DVC be?

I just did a quick calculation of BCV as a sanity check. I used current rack rates and compared a DVC studio with a hotel room. I ignored factors like daily housekeeping, parking, perks, etc. I assumed inflation for MFs and room rates would be the same. I used a 5% cost of money, which is more than the risk free rate and less than the pie in the sky 8% some would have you use. I assumed that you would hold Beach club until the end and have no terminal value and that there are 23 use years left. I came up with well over $350 per point value.

The thing is I don't know anyone who would pay $4,000 to stay in a standard view Beach Club room in February for a week. But I suppose there may be people doing just that.
I really enjoyed reading your analysis. Just look at the Disney rack rates. I see people spending 10,000 for a weeks stay. The question is, is DVC really a savings at this point!!
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Old 07-18-2019, 09:19 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boundin' View Post
What should the value of DVC be?

I just did a quick calculation of BCV as a sanity check. I used current rack rates and compared a DVC studio with a hotel room. I ignored factors like daily housekeeping, parking, perks, etc. I assumed inflation for MFs and room rates would be the same. I used a 5% cost of money, which is more than the risk free rate and less than the pie in the sky 8% some would have you use. I assumed that you would hold Beach club until the end and have no terminal value and that there are 23 use years left. I came up with well over $350 per point value.

The thing is I don't know anyone who would pay $4,000 to stay in a standard view Beach Club room in February for a week. But I suppose there may be people doing just that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BWV Dreamin View Post
I really enjoyed reading your analysis. Just look at the Disney rack rates. I see people spending 10,000 for a weeks stay. The question is, is DVC really a savings at this point!!
That's what makes DVC work - it *IS* a deal over rack rates, and it does allow you to stay in accommodations you really can't get with rack rates.

I would never, never, never, never, ever be able to afford a stay at any of the monorail resorts. With DVC, I've been able to stay at almost all of them (just not into VGF). AKL is the only deluxe resort I ever paid cash for. (We paid cash for Swan, Pop, AS-Mu, PO-R). When DVC opened at AKL, I was over the moon. Cash rates have gotten to the point where we probably wouldn't stay there again because that would limit the number of times we could go at all. DVC lets us stay.

Disney is indeed very expensive and the prices of everything have outpaced inflation, a patter generally associated with Bob Iger. However, DVC - in whatever way you can get in - lets you experience Disney in a very economical way as long as you want to go at least every year or two and want more than Value accommodations.

Even with resale restrictions, purchase a resale contract for one of the Original 14 still gets you into each and every one of those resorts for a song compared to pay rack rate on the hotel side.

Now - tickets, planning, that's another story. I don't even grumble about food that much because we know how to find things we at like at prices that aren't more outrageous than New York or offer very good quality for the price (V&A, Jiko, etc.)

Dirk
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