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Old 07-12-2018, 07:56 PM   #31
helenabear
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Originally Posted by avsheffi View Post
We bought a 100 pt triple loaded contract in 2013 for $65 pp. I just sold it completely stripped through 2020 for $105. Of course, I turned around and put that money towards a 125 pt CCV at $176.
Don't feel bad, we just did a tiny add on at PVB. After months and months of looking, I finally gave in. Also I didn't want to spend more for points I don't need. I had a cap on my budget and the contracts I did find were about $3k more.
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Old 07-12-2018, 09:19 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Jotunheim View Post
Keep in mind though that the last recession was unusually severe. I would expect that resale pricing would decline in the next recession, but it would probably be more in the 5-15% range. This is assuming your normal garden variety downturn.
I agree with this. The economic events in 2007-2009 were pretty spectacular. I doubt that the next downturn will be that severe. I also think that the next downturn is some years away.

On the other hand, there are folks out there who are a lot more intelligent than me who think that the next downturn will be the end of our current financial system as we know it. They might be right. The fractional reserve banking that all banks rely on seems completely insane to me. It's all based on trust. If trust breaks down (as it partially did in 2007-2009), then the system collapses.

However, so long as the world is run on fiat money, then governments can just print (or digitally create) whatever money is necessary to keep banks liquid. Since most governments have a vested interest in stopping any economic collapse from happening, I think they will probably be able to keep things going just fine. It's only if a critical mass of people lose faith in fiat currency that we will really have a problem.

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I am glad we bought 10 years ago. I wish now that we had bought more. I would expect the bubble to burst in the next two years or so, as we are due a recession in the country.
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There's no question it will happen. The question that matters is when. People warned against the real estate bubble bursting for years, but still lost their money because they didn't get out at the right time.
I don't know if the bubble is a good analogy for this stuff anymore. The next time something stupendous happens with the world economy, I think it will involve something other than a bubble. I think it will involve a paradigm shift that almost nobody will anticipate (including me).

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Originally Posted by BobParr View Post
One thing to consider is that not all DVC are equal. Some won't be affected at the same rate, or to the same degree. The curve for HHI and Vero, for example, won't look much like BCV or BLT.
This is a very good point. I would expect the Epcot DVC properties and the monorail DVC properties to hold their value better than any of the others.
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Old 07-13-2018, 06:49 AM   #33
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In looking at the resale prices over the years, I feel that resale prices have been around 50% of direct prices. Would like to hear othersí opinions on this statistic. So, by that measure resale prices look a little rich, but as long as they are cheaper than direct they will be attractive.
I agree that resale prices are really strong right now and I think there are 2 parts to that.
The first part is the basic concept of supply and demand. The economy is good and Disney is upping their game in the parks so there arenít significant percentages of owners looking to dump their points and move on. At the same time, the same factors are driving more people to want to buy in.

However, I tend to doubt we will ever see the 50% mark again. I think the second part of the historical data has to do with lack of knowledge of the resale market and a general fear of the unknown of what bad things you might be exposing yourself to by buying resale. The news is out about the resale market and boards like this one have gone a long way in creating a sense of legitimacy and a comfort level in buying resale.
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Old 07-13-2018, 09:26 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by BEAM4DVC View Post
Just FYI.... You could have saved even more money by buying more points, right!?!?!?!?
UGH! Don't tempt me!
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Old 07-13-2018, 10:19 AM   #35
pooh bears mom
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DVC bubble will pop in the near future, but they will not lower prices, but start to offer large incentives of substantial price discounts per number of points you buy. Just my opinion
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