home News forums Reviews Trade links

Go Back   The DVC Boards at MouseOwners.com - the place to talk DVC and Walt Disney World > VACATION CLUB RESOURCES > Questions about Buying and Selling DVC
 Register FAQ Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

 Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes

Old 07-11-2018, 01:29 PM   #11
Loro
Grand Villa
 
Loro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,288
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by C&CPoly2017 View Post
I understand your points, but my comment on not being a normal market are related to Disney's ROFR. There's quite a lot of room for prices to slack on the direct side before it wouldn't make sense for them to buy back points at ~$100/point to sell at a discount to direct.
I understand what you are saying.

There is some slack, but as I mentioned in my last post there is a substantial cost for them holding all of those points if nobody is buying or using them. Plus as prices at the rest of Disney's accommodations would decrease with the downturn, DVC would no longer hold the same value/price either. They will have to once again offer more for less like they did 10 years ago before these enormous price hikes hit.
Loro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 01:33 PM   #12
helenabear
Add-on Aficionado
 
helenabear's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Central Ohio
Posts: 10,333
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loro View Post
I understand what you are saying.

There is some slack, but as I mentioned in my last post there is a substantial cost for them holding all of those points if nobody is buying or using them. Plus as prices at the rest of Disney's accommodations would decrease with the downturn, DVC would no longer hold the same value/price either. They will have to once again offer more for less like they did 10 years ago before these enormous price hikes hit.
When the economy turned down, the prices I saw and paid for in 2004 were again what I saw during the recession. There were a few that dropped really low, but not as a whole. I was dreaming of buying more then but we had just had a child and adding on didn't feel smart then.

10 years ago direct prices didn't drop. They may have offered some incentives, but in general no drops in prices. I think it won't happen. Resale prices might drop, but direct? Nah, DVC will weather any economic downturn (when/if it happens) similarly to before which was a rather large and longer one that came up after a huge hit to the travel industry as a whole.
__________________
helenabear is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 01:34 PM   #13
C&CPoly2017
Waiting to pass ROFR (i.e., n00b)
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: New York
Posts: 12
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loro View Post
I understand what you are saying.

There is some slack, but as I mentioned in my last post there is a substantial cost for them holding all of those points if nobody is buying or using them. Plus as prices at the rest of Disney's accommodations would decrease with the downturn, DVC would no longer hold the same value/price either. They will have to once again offer more for less like they did 10 years ago before these enormous price hikes hit.
There would have to be a pretty significant drop off in interest before I could see that scenario play out. I think it takes a more significant set of assumptions to see that happen compared to believing that costs will persist at current levels (which are admittedly high and up significantly in the last couple of years).

Last edited by C&CPoly2017; 07-11-2018 at 01:48 PM.
C&CPoly2017 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 01:39 PM   #14
pdude81
Grand Villa
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 2,338
Default

Lowering the actual cost would harm their model for future sales as people might think they could hold out for a better deal. Incentives are their best weapon as those have expiration dates and nobody knows if the deal will be better or worse (spoiler alert: same deal with a different wrapper).

They don't have to raise the cost of points if sales are struggling but I can't see a world where they would drop given that they didn't in the last recession.
pdude81 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 01:39 PM   #15
Jotunheim
Studio
 
Jotunheim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: SE Wisconsin
Posts: 113
Default

Looking at some older posts of resale prices paid or discussed (and this is only for one resort with many variables with regards to points on contract and contract size), it appears that the decline was roughly about 20%. I saw a few posts with BWV going for mid to upper $80's in 2006 and 2007 and looks like the asking prices in mid to late 2009 was in the low $70's. This would probably imply a high $60's sales price on average. I am sure some desperate sellers let them go for much less though.

Keep in mind though that the last recession was unusually severe. I would expect that resale pricing would decline in the next recession, but it would probably be more in the 5-15% range. This is assuming your normal garden variety downturn.
__________________
Jotunheim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 02:05 PM   #16
GiantsNiners11
Grand Villa
 
GiantsNiners11's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: First class on a coach budget
Posts: 2,169
Default

Itís a bit of perspective too.

We bought during the recession, however, our investment portfolio is up way way way more than our DVC appreciation. 50% DVC appreciation? That is peanuts compared to what most made in stocks and emerging asset classes like cryptocurrencies. That means if a family took their $10,000 back during he recession and invested it even moderately well in the boom, they can still buy DVC and have made ďmoreĒ than someone who spent their 10k on cheap DVC.

Itís all relative and Iím glad we bought our 500+ points then, but the only real financial losers are those who leave their money in a bank account or their mattress.
__________________
ďToo many people grow up. That's the real trouble with the world, too many people grow up. They forget. They don't remember what it's like to be 12 years old. They patronize, they treat children as inferiors. Well I won't do that.Ē ~Walt Disney

Me(34) DW(33) DD(5)
GiantsNiners11 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 02:09 PM   #17
DisneyTravelers
Grand Villa
 
DisneyTravelers's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Raleigh NC
Posts: 2,146
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cvjw View Post
We purchased BCV for $80 per point in 2008, not sure what BWV was selling for at that time. We purchased BWV points around 2012 or 2013 for $77 per point.

Just wanted to add that in addition to the DVC prices getting so high lately, the maintenance fees are approaching $7 per point. At some point, it may be more expensive to own DVC points as opposed to just renting points or booking directly with Disney.

Using DVC points is still a great deal for us since we bought in when prices were so much lower.
Did you buy direct in 2008 and 2012 and 213? We purchased SSR direct in January 2008 and we paid about $90 per point. Sure wish I had bought about 60 more points originally....
__________________
Trip Report:
"Dole Whips, Disney Trips & Memories To never Forget:
http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=137109

Trip Report:
The Tale of Two Trips - The Princesses & The Dudes Take On NYE @ WDWhttp://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=134143


Spring Break Trip Report / How To Beat The Crowds & Still Have FUN!
http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=64670

First Time Cruiser Trip Report http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=87522


Me DH DS21 DD15

DisneyTravelers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 02:19 PM   #18
Loro
Grand Villa
 
Loro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,288
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jotunheim View Post
Looking at some older posts of resale prices paid or discussed (and this is only for one resort with many variables with regards to points on contract and contract size), it appears that the decline was roughly about 20%. I saw a few posts with BWV going for mid to upper $80's in 2006 and 2007 and looks like the asking prices in mid to late 2009 was in the low $70's. This would probably imply a high $60's sales price on average. I am sure some desperate sellers let them go for much less though.

Keep in mind though that the last recession was unusually severe. I would expect that resale pricing would decline in the next recession, but it would probably be more in the 5-15% range. This is assuming your normal garden variety downturn.
We will have to definitely wait and see how hard the next downturn hits. It may be different in that prices are much higher this time around.

Quote:
Originally Posted by helenabear View Post
When the economy turned down, the prices I saw and paid for in 2004 were again what I saw during the recession. There were a few that dropped really low, but not as a whole. I was dreaming of buying more then but we had just had a child and adding on didn't feel smart then.

10 years ago direct prices didn't drop. They may have offered some incentives, but in general no drops in prices. I think it won't happen. Resale prices might drop, but direct? Nah, DVC will weather any economic downturn (when/if it happens) similarly to before which was a rather large and longer one that came up after a huge hit to the travel industry as a whole.
Perhaps they may try to just weather it out. I'm not sure they will do it for an extended time due to the increased number of DVCs and prices being so much higher now. They would have to hold onto a lot of inventory for years even with a mild downturn since it can scare off consumers.
Loro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 02:29 PM   #19
Loro
Grand Villa
 
Loro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,288
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GiantsNiners11 View Post
Itís a bit of perspective too.

We bought during the recession, however, our investment portfolio is up way way way more than our DVC appreciation. 50% DVC appreciation? That is peanuts compared to what most made in stocks and emerging asset classes like cryptocurrencies. That means if a family took their $10,000 back during he recession and invested it even moderately well in the boom, they can still buy DVC and have made ďmoreĒ than someone who spent their 10k on cheap DVC.

Itís all relative and Iím glad we bought our 500+ points then, but the only real financial losers are those who leave their money in a bank account or their mattress.


Most definitely. You were one of the people I was thinking of when I posted this regarding prices had at that time. 50% gain over 4 years is pretty significant though when you look at BLT. That's a little over 11% annualized gain off the top of my head. Take into account renting out the points you don't use and the return was fantastic still. Nothing compared to some gains that could have been had otherwise like you mentioned though.

Unfortunately many people do not invest or have the means to, and were left out in the cold. Crypto also looks dead-ish now. There will be other investments to be had for sure, most of which will be far better than DVC. Right place at the right time, with the proper means.
Loro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2018, 02:40 PM   #20
tink711
Add-on Aficionado
 
tink711's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 6,571
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GiantsNiners11 View Post
Itís a bit of perspective too.

We bought during the recession, however, our investment portfolio is up way way way more than our DVC appreciation. 50% DVC appreciation? That is peanuts compared to what most made in stocks and emerging asset classes like cryptocurrencies. That means if a family took their $10,000 back during he recession and invested it even moderately well in the boom, they can still buy DVC and have made ďmoreĒ than someone who spent their 10k on cheap DVC.

Itís all relative and Iím glad we bought our 500+ points then, but the only real financial losers are those who leave their money in a bank account or their mattress.
If DVC was something you bought but didnít use (or rent). I would agree with your numbers. However, with DVC to get the true value you also have to take into account any money that wasnít spent on cash ressies (or money received from rentals). We bought in 2013 at $60 pp. We could sell at more than 50% profit but that isnít the whole story. We have done a couple of small rentals but also have several vacations. I have been tracking total cost of ownership (total cost to purchase + MFs) and each trip I get the cost of same stay in a Moderate (what we would have done if we didnít own DVC). We are almost at the point where DVC is completely paid for out of what we would we would have spent otherwise plus income from a couple of small rentals.

OK, I guess some investments would have made more than just the increase in $pp, but that doesnít consider the value of the use of the DVC.

@OP something else to consider is rising interest rates. I think a lot of new buyers are financing a large portion of the purchase. When interst rates are low people are less cautious about borrowing. Even if the economy stays strong, rising interest rates could change the way people think about borrowing large sums of money for luxury purchases.
__________________

Always dreaming of my next visit ...





tink711 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:53 AM.

© MouseOwners. "MouseOwners" is a registered servicemark. This is an unofficial fan site and is not affiliated in any way with The Walt Disney Company, the Disney Vacation Club, Disney Vacation Development, or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries. All Disney images © The Walt Disney Company.
Powered by Forum Software