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Old 07-18-2019, 03:13 PM   #21
Ccarroll1100
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I played the game. Iíve sold all but 100 of my points.
I think we are at the top of the resale market right now.
I made a nice profit on what I sold and no more Maintenance fees
(Except the 100 BC points I still have)
So these 12 years of DVC ownership have been good to me.
The crowds, the pricing, the other options, the point in our lives and the timing were just right for us to sell.
We will be going to the world far less than we used to.
I think this is exactly what the mouse wants though.
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Old 07-18-2019, 09:21 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Ccarroll1100 View Post
I think this is exactly what the mouse wants though.
Not sure I follow this part.

They want people to go less often?
They want people to add more points to the resale market?

Sorry, don't get the message here.

Cheers.
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Old 07-19-2019, 12:16 PM   #23
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Personally having bought 2 more resale contracts this year - prices seem to have been fairly stable the last 6 months. Also I having bought contracts over the last few years Disney seemingly was a LOT more aggressive with ROFR which forced prices up.

I think 2042 contracts will start coming down in price a few dollars per point per year as we hit 20 years (maintaining a rough $4-5/pt/yr price).

Also what's helping maintain 2042 prices is the scarcity of availability at places like BWV and BCV - as much as you want to pay less for a 2042 contract if you want to book BWV studio you need to book at 11 months - just a fact.

- Todd
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Old 07-19-2019, 12:30 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by sawickipedia View Post
Personally having bought 2 more resale contracts this year - prices seem to have been fairly stable the last 6 months. Also I having bought contracts over the last few years Disney seemingly was a LOT more aggressive with ROFR which forced prices up.

I think 2042 contracts will start coming down in price a few dollars per point per year as we hit 20 years (maintaining a rough $4-5/pt/yr price).

Also what's helping maintain 2042 prices is the scarcity of availability at places like BWV and BCV - as much as you want to pay less for a 2042 contract if you want to book BWV studio you need to book at 11 months - just a fact.

- Todd
It stands to reason that the resale prices will come down as the expiration date approaches, but people have predicting that for as long as I can remember. So far, it hasn't happened. I think it will be a quite a while yet.

The BWV & BCV contracts will continue to hold a lot of value as long as Disney keeps raising the cash prices for rooms and keeps limiting the discounts.
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Old 07-19-2019, 12:46 PM   #25
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FWIW I think the OKW prices are going up because DVC is exercising ROFR on the resort to phase out the 2042 contracts so they can age out the 2057 ownership and start a rebuild on the expired contracts prior to 2057.

I also wonder if the 2042 contracts that are bought up could be resold direct as fixed week options. We are seeing DVC purchase and repackage contracts as points and use year variations.
That way DVC can control high demand occupancy and sell a bank of villa points on a tight booking tetris formula during peak times.
They can then rent out the other DVC property villas at the same resort to general public and lure a new population into a direct sale options.

Just my 2 cents.
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Old 07-19-2019, 01:03 PM   #26
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IMO, DVC never wanted clients from lower/static income brackets. The point cost was low but the required point minimum to purchase was high. The nod was the so called free tickets but in order to get enough for the entire family the appropriately sized villa was needed no squeezing in to studios or 1-BR's to make points stretch or that savings was used by a need to purchase tickets.

The recession in the early 2000's gave us an opportunity to own. For a while those of us with stable incomes sailed along happily with our low point contracts, trading into high point DVC venues, and discounted low cost APs.

Can't blame Disney for being in the biz to make $$ just because I am still making $. A silver lining to ageing: we drink less, earn more with more surplus cash because our kids aren't using it and no longer eat much to maintain our descending metabolism.

I don't want the pre-Eisner days when the parks and hotels were kinda raggedy. When trying to book my special coded/discounted vacations I would have to keep hanging up to get a operator who either knew my code or was willing to make the effort to help me book.
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Old 07-19-2019, 01:04 PM   #27
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Theoretically, the value of a DVC point should start declining after the first use year. What props it up primarily is that Disney keeps raising the price of a direct point. Secondarily, the cost of cash rooms keep going up. Third, Disney just keeps getting more popular. It used to be a destination to go to every few years. Now it has become a lifestyle. Hell people talk about retiring there. These three factors have caused resale prices to increase at a greater rate than the depreciation (fewer remaining years) has caused the price to decrease.

As the years on the contract get fewer, the depreciation will be harder to overcome. But if Disney continues to raise cash prices and direct points exponentially, it may be a while before we see declines.

I think the main correlation is between direct prices and resale. I don't think the resale market is sophisticated enough to know that, "hey a point should equal 30-40% of the present value of a cash room less projected future maintenance fees". The resale market just knows Disney sell this for x, I sell it for x less a discount.
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Old 07-19-2019, 03:31 PM   #28
Ccarroll1100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bakerworld View Post
IMO, DVC never wanted clients from lower/static income brackets. The point cost was low but the required point minimum to purchase was high. The nod was the so called free tickets but in order to get enough for the entire family the appropriately sized villa was needed no squeezing in to studios or 1-BR's to make points stretch or that savings was used by a need to purchase tickets.

The recession in the early 2000's gave us an opportunity to own. For a while those of us with stable incomes sailed along happily with our low point contracts, trading into high point DVC venues, and discounted low cost APs.
This exactly!!
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Old 07-19-2019, 09:05 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boundin' View Post
Theoretically, the value of a DVC point should start declining after the first use year. What props it up primarily is that Disney keeps raising the price of a direct point. Secondarily, the cost of cash rooms keep going up. Third, Disney just keeps getting more popular. It used to be a destination to go to every few years.
All of this. A timeshare with a fixed lifespan should begin to devalue immediately. But so many factors around it are changing, as noted above, that the prices are being propped up.

Cheers.
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Old 07-20-2019, 10:19 AM   #30
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Not sure I follow this part.

They want people to go less often?
They want people to add more points to the resale market?

Sorry, don't get the message here.

Cheers.
This, exactly....HUH?
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