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Old 01-16-2018, 03:39 PM   #11
FessParker1
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At 50 years you could still have some value in 10 years. What happens in 15 years when there's only 10 years left on the 2042 contracts? Still gonna be over 100 a pt? Probably gonna blow the whole thing up. Are people going to want to buy in knowing that at some point its worthless? Making more money on my money than what I would save by owning and using the points, not to mention the hassle of trying to get the bookings you want. Way easier to rent when you want. I see too many people here with points that have to make cash reservations because when they want to go is booked. That's not why your in it. I have the availability to go when ever there's an opening so it may work better for me that way. Never ever xmas or school vacations. I have one week that there never seems to be a crowd. A few more points but it's worth it.

And yes Disney does care about you, They need you to pay your MF's.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:43 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by teachmusic View Post
Hi,

OK - the prices per point for the newest and brightest DVC units are going up to over $200. For the life of me, I cannot fathom why Disney would make such a boneheaded move. Are there really that many people out in the world with enough disposable income to afford these prices and not at least blink or gulp hard? What am I missing here?

The only thing I can figure is that they're preparing for the new resort that will be ready in 2020-21(?) and I guess by then, $200 a point will seem like a bargain.
Yes, there is. But going in with a group is another way to make it more affordable. Put it in a business name and each person (or couple) in the group uses a fraction of the points.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:43 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by DVCERSINCEDAY1 View Post
50 years? who wants to own anywhere 50 years? way too much upfront commitment to anything methinks. certainly hope the resale market holds for these folks.

any cost per year calculation comparing resorts new and old would need to consider the time value of money. net present value calculations...that i must leave to others.
Who would have ever imagined that a hotel room at the Contemporary would be in the neighborhood of $700 per night in 1971? or that the price of tickets would rise so much? In 1971 the cost for a ticket to enter WDW was $3.50.

Time marches on and prices continue to rise.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:46 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by FessParker1 View Post
At 50 years you could still have some value in 10 years. What happens in 15 years when there's only 10 years left on the 2042 contracts? Still gonna be over 100 a pt? Probably gonna blow the whole thing up. Are people going to want to buy in knowing that at some point its worthless? Making more money on my money than what I would save by owning and using the points, not to mention the hassle of trying to get the bookings you want. Way easier to rent when you want. I see too many people here with points that have to make cash reservations because when they want to go is booked. That's not why your in it. I have the availability to go when ever there's an opening so it may work better for me that way. Never ever xmas or school vacations. I have one week that there never seems to be a crowd. A few more points but it's worth it.
.
I still believe that as the 2042 contracts begin their death spiral, that DVC will restrict the points at those resorts.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:47 PM   #15
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Stayed at Contemporary in 1972 ( thanks MOM) was around $27 a night.

They could also change the contract end dates for new sales like with OKW
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:48 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FessParker1 View Post
At 50 years you could still have some value in 10 years. What happens in 15 years when there's only 10 years left on the 2042 contracts? Still gonna be over 100 a pt? Probably gonna blow the whole thing up. Are people going to want to buy in knowing that at some point its worthless? Making more money on my money than what I would save by owning and using the points, not to mention the hassle of trying to get the bookings you want. Way easier to rent when you want. I see too many people here with points that have to make cash reservations because when they want to go is booked. That's not why your in it. I have the availability to go when ever there's an opening so it may work better for me that way. Never ever xmas or school vacations. I have one week that there never seems to be a crowd. A few more points but it's worth it.

And yes Disney does care about you, They need you to pay your MF's.
in 15 years, $100 will be about $40 in today's money...would be a bargain to own resort with ten years left. good lord, 15 years is a llllloooooonnnnnnnggggg time to deal with dvc and mf's imo.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:49 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teachmusic View Post
Hi,

OK - the prices per point for the newest and brightest DVC units are going up to over $200. For the life of me, I cannot fathom why Disney would make such a boneheaded move. Are there really that many people out in the world with enough disposable income to afford these prices and not at least blink or gulp hard? What am I missing here?

The only thing I can figure is that they're preparing for the new resort that will be ready in 2020-21(?) and I guess by then, $200 a point will seem like a bargain.
"Are there really that many people out in the world with enough disposable income to afford these prices and not at least blink or gulp hard? "
The answer thus far as been "yes" and Disney is counting on it being "yes" no matter the price.

DVC is a cash cow for Disney. They'll milk it for all its worth.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:50 PM   #18
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MOOOOOO there taking all my cash.
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:53 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmrdgrs View Post
If you do the math the price per point over the life of a 50 year contract vs. a 24 year resort is actually LESS expensive. Case in point:

400 points at BWV x $115 pp (avg resale price) = $46,000
$46,000 / 24 years of ownership = $1,917 (for each year of ownership you purchased)
$1,917 / 400 = $4.79pp for each year of ownership over 24 years

Of course this doesn't take in to account maintenance fees on each point over the 24 years. Or points that are banked that you will be able to rent out.

Next Scenario

Let's say you waited and bought at the new resort Riviera and let's use the same 400 points. We don't know what Riviera will open at when they start to sell, but let's say it is $215pp - $100 more over BWV resale.

400 points x $215pp = $86,000
$86,000 / 50 years of ownership = $1,720 (for each year of ownership you purchased)
$1,720 / 400 = $4.30pp for each year of ownership

Of course this doesn't take in to account maintenance fees on each point over the 50 years. Or promotions or points that will come with the new direct contract from DVC.

My math also doesn't take into account point inflation on the number of points needed to book a room at Riviera (which we assume will be more over booking a room at BWV), but I think if you run the numbers and can afford the buy-in DVC still works - at least on paper

ETA: I do not work for DVC -
I agree with your numbers. $215 for Riviera makes more sense that $115 for BWV.

However, it just so far from where we were just a few years ago with the resale market that it's still
Even new resorts .... Wasn't VGF something like $145pp direct when it first opened ?
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Old 01-16-2018, 04:12 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmrdgrs View Post
If you do the math the price per point over the life of a 50 year contract vs. a 24 year resort is actually LESS expensive. Case in point:

400 points at BWV x $115 pp (avg resale price) = $46,000
$46,000 / 24 years of ownership = $1,917 (for each year of ownership you purchased)
$1,917 / 400 = $4.79pp for each year of ownership over 24 years

Of course this doesn't take in to account maintenance fees on each point over the 24 years. Or points that are banked that you will be able to rent out.

Next Scenario

Let's say you waited and bought at the new resort Riviera and let's use the same 400 points. We don't know what Riviera will open at when they start to sell, but let's say it is $215pp - $100 more over BWV resale.

400 points x $215pp = $86,000
$86,000 / 50 years of ownership = $1,720 (for each year of ownership you purchased)
$1,720 / 400 = $4.30pp for each year of ownership

Of course this doesn't take in to account maintenance fees on each point over the 50 years. Or promotions or points that will come with the new direct contract from DVC.

My math also doesn't take into account point inflation on the number of points needed to book a room at Riviera (which we assume will be more over booking a room at BWV), but I think if you run the numbers and can afford the buy-in DVC still works - at least on paper

ETA: I do not work for DVC -
Yup. When we were looking at buying I discovered that, aside from the standard view, a week at the Boardwalk or Beach Club would cost me the same as a week at the Polynesian or Grand Floridian. We opted for the longer contract.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boundin' View Post
I just feel that the Riviera is going to be $300 ppt. And if there is ever a DVC component of a SW Hotel; easy $300..AND astronomical point requirements.
I dunno. That's over $100 more than the prices on non-sold out resorts. That'd be a gigantic jump in just a little over a year.

As others have said, I figure the big price jumps on VGF, VGC, and Poly and smaller jumps elsewhere, are to diminish the demand at the sold out resorts. It made me reconsider adding direct points at the Polynesian. We couldn't do it before the prices went up so I'd just as soon wait for Riviera where I'd get a different location with convenience to the new areas at HS and Epcot. The three big ones also set those resorts apart as being premier locations.
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