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Old 03-21-2020, 10:42 AM   #11
pooh bears mom
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DVC will take a long term hit with this. I think people are reevaluating what is important. I think we will see 2010 prices within the next year. Disney will not simply bounce back immediately following this.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:00 AM   #12
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DVC will take a long term hit with this. I think people are reevaluating what is important. I think we will see 2010 prices within the next year. Disney will not simply bounce back immediately following this.
I agree. I think it will occur to more people that crowded places (I'm lookin' at you WDW) are germ factories. When it was a cold, even a flu, we dealt with it.

Granted, a COVID-19 doesn't come along often, but people will think about it. They'll think "what if something new comes along and, before it's well known, we're in a crowded place and get it? What if this new one hits kids harder? Do I want to put my kids at risk for some rides?"

To be sure, many will not think this, or decide that the risks are low. But I think a bunch of folks will go there in their reasoning.

Cheers.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:35 AM   #13
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DVC will take a long term hit with this. I think people are reevaluating what is important. I think we will see 2010 prices within the next year. Disney will not simply bounce back immediately following this.
I assume your "this" is the virus shut-down and not parking.

I think differently. I think as soon as those gates are opened, there is going to be a mad rush back to "normalcy" - much like what happened after 9/11.

There is so much pent up frustration over cancellations and travel plans that have been on-hold - - combine that with what is sure to be low airfare and resort special offerings - -things will be whirring at top speed ASAP.

The financial parameters are not the same as they were with the 2007 - 2010 economic conditions where so many were over-extended on their mortgages and their home valuations were not in line with their mortgages. There was not the gov't support that is going to cushion this shorter term predicament.

Those young people and 2020 college graduates that are already throwing caution to the wind on spring break will be spending on many vacations as soon as they are employed. They'll be wanting their "do overs"!

It's just a matter of finding the turning point of the virus. People are already frustrated with staying home and it's been barely a week! I predict a slow open - by Disney design at first - and then a flood as soon as the parks and resorts are fully opened.
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Old 03-21-2020, 11:57 AM   #14
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I agree. I think it will occur to more people that crowded places (I'm lookin' at you WDW) are germ factories. When it was a cold, even a flu, we dealt with it.

Granted, a COVID-19 doesn't come along often, but people will think about it. They'll think "what if something new comes along and, before it's well known, we're in a crowded place and get it? What if this new one hits kids harder? Do I want to put my kids at risk for some rides?"

To be sure, many will not think this, or decide that the risks are low. But I think a bunch of folks will go there in their reasoning.

Cheers.
Not only that, but I think this may redefine “disposable cash” for many families. Not sure that we will see 2010 prices. But I think this will will be a reality check for DVC leadership and their 245pp resorts...
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Old 03-21-2020, 01:24 PM   #15
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I assume your "this" is the virus shut-down and not parking.

I think differently. I think as soon as those gates are opened, there is going to be a mad rush back to "normalcy" - much like what happened after 9/11.

There is so much pent up frustration over cancellations and travel plans that have been on-hold - - combine that with what is sure to be low airfare and resort special offerings - -things will be whirring at top speed ASAP.

The financial parameters are not the same as they were with the 2007 - 2010 economic conditions where so many were over-extended on their mortgages and their home valuations were not in line with their mortgages. There was not the gov't support that is going to cushion this shorter term predicament.

Those young people and 2020 college graduates that are already throwing caution to the wind on spring break will be spending on many vacations as soon as they are employed. They'll be wanting their "do overs"!

It's just a matter of finding the turning point of the virus. People are already frustrated with staying home and it's been barely a week! I predict a slow open - by Disney design at first - and then a flood as soon as the parks and resorts are fully opened.
I respectfully and sadly disagree. The college spring break crowds are, for the most part, not the disney crowds. I think I know, because I was a disney spring break girl back 20 years ago, and I went with my best friend and my mother. We had a great time. Had zero interest in Daytona. I remember, some friends and those in my dorm at the time, went to Daytona and they had zero interest in Disney. The disney crowd vs. spring break crowd are for the most part different groups. I think the disney spring break group are more the family oriented group or at least, overall. With one son in college and another starting next year, We were thinking of going for a few days over spring break prior to this. Just my opinion and based on my own experience.
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Old 03-21-2020, 02:14 PM   #16
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I respectfully and sadly disagree. The college spring break crowds are, for the most part, not the disney crowds. I think I know, because I was a disney spring break girl back 20 years ago, and I went with my best friend and my mother. We had a great time. Had zero interest in Daytona. I remember, some friends and those in my dorm at the time, went to Daytona and they had zero interest in Disney. The disney crowd vs. spring break crowd are for the most part different groups. I think the disney spring break group are more the family oriented group or at least, overall. With one son in college and another starting next year, We were thinking of going for a few days over spring break prior to this. Just my opinion and based on my own experience.
I wasn't saying they'd be going to Disney for Spring Break, I was making the general observation that this generation isn't going to stop vacationing because they've been raised on nice vacations, are less likely to buy houses, will marry and delay having children and will have expendable incomes. They'll spend on vacations, for sure.

Also, the Disney vacation of 20 years ago for this group has changed and is far more appealing now since alcohol has been added to the equation. I've seen more 21st bday, bachelorette, bachelor, graduation, reunion, etc... "Drink around the World" (not just contained to Epcot) groups that could compete with the South American tour groups over the past 2 - 3 years.

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Old 03-21-2020, 03:31 PM   #17
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Find a contract and make an $75-$80 offer - - you never know until you ask. This is definitely the time.

I just had a contract pass through Marriott's ROFR in Hawaii that was about 21% of what they wanted directly for an annual ocean front villa. Not DVC equivalent by any means, but this is the time to make those offers.

I'm working on our "roving retirement" plan with this current economic opportunity.
zafiro;
we're in the process of buying more points right now, at what I thought was a great price on 3/6. We also are ramping up so we can increase our snow-birding in retirement. If prices really tank in the next 2 months, and my employment is not impacted, I may just have to buy more. Hoping/Praying this is not a long-term impact, and my retirement date can still be achieved as planned.
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Old 03-21-2020, 03:38 PM   #18
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Oh, we only want to stay at BWV and BCV. My thought is that, after retirement, we may be able to sneak into these with less-valuable points for mid-week less popular times since we can travel at any time then. I know 7-month is getting harder, but I hear of plenty of people still getting it.

However, we'll be 82 in 2042. We may be done with Disney...maybe not

Cheers.
brp-
We will be 82 & 83 in 2042, and didn't buy DVC until 2010. Added on twice (counting 1 resale that just passed ROFR). We blew through a lot of points this January for a 3BR-GV for the whole family, but long term plans are to maximize DVC points for snow-birding in retirement. I'm holding on to that plan, and wishing away the COVID-19 as fast as it came.
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Old 03-21-2020, 03:51 PM   #19
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I assume your "this" is the virus shut-down and not parking.

I think differently. I think as soon as those gates are opened, there is going to be a mad rush back to "normalcy" - much like what happened after 9/11.

There is so much pent up frustration over cancellations and travel plans that have been on-hold - - combine that with what is sure to be low airfare and resort special offerings - -things will be whirring at top speed ASAP.

The financial parameters are not the same as they were with the 2007 - 2010 economic conditions where so many were over-extended on their mortgages and their home valuations were not in line with their mortgages. There was not the gov't support that is going to cushion this shorter term predicament.

Those young people and 2020 college graduates that are already throwing caution to the wind on spring break will be spending on many vacations as soon as they are employed. They'll be wanting their "do overs"!

It's just a matter of finding the turning point of the virus. People are already frustrated with staying home and it's been barely a week! I predict a slow open - by Disney design at first - and then a flood as soon as the parks and resorts are fully opened.
Shorter term perhaps but this will hit like a ton of bricks shortly thereafter. I will assume that you either work for someone or if you own you are in great shape to weather this storm and haven't looked what the financial aid is to small businesses.

With a fed rate at zero the government is willing to give out loans to small businesses at the low low rate of 3.75%(are they kidding me? I can get a heloc for less than this). The aforementioned loans will be available by showing hardship for up to 25k(what is 25k going to do? a month or two of payroll for many small businesses) with no collateral. Guess what comes next?

Yup, anything over 25k you will have to provide collateral. Well I am no loan administrator but I would think that your business will not be considered collateral because you are about to go out of business and need a loan to continue to exist. Well, lets see what the next thing you have that may qualify as collateral against the loan?

Yup, you guessed it, your home. This whole mess is going to have a tremendous economic price for a while, IMO.

And the value of your home? where is that going to be when home sales are virtually non existent for 6-8 weeks? climbing the chart?

OR maybe just maybe you use your 401k or pension to secure the loan, I'm sure it is doing swimmingly in this economy. I'm not normally an alarmist but I just think too many people are thinking above their own heads, just because they are fine everyone will be. I just cant see this not affecting many a small business owner. This will hurt people.
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Old 03-21-2020, 03:53 PM   #20
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But to answer the question, no not now, but in 12-24 months I will be expecting to do some shopping. Unfortunately it will mean someone didn't fair so well in this.
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