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Old 11-11-2020, 04:27 PM   #1
zafiro
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Default DIS stock on the fence

https://www.investors.com/news/disne...20/?src=A00220

After the past few days of a run up, I've sold off about 1/2 of my DIS shares ahead of tomorrow's certain cloudy news.
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Old 11-11-2020, 06:28 PM   #2
brp
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Seems like a safe bet. Assume that the run-up is based on the promise of the vaccine, but the results, and even projections, are likely to be bad.

Then again, the only stock I now trade is the company stock I get for free since I've amassed enogh losses to cover all those gains and those from mrs. brp (she's actually good at this) for a number of years. So anything I say about stock is highly suspect

Cheers.
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Old 11-11-2020, 06:57 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by brp View Post
Seems like a safe bet. Assume that the run-up is based on the promise of the vaccine, but the results, and even projections, are likely to be bad.

Then again, the only stock I now trade is the company stock I get for free since I've amassed enogh losses to cover all those gains and those from mrs. brp (she's actually good at this) for a number of years. So anything I say about stock is highly suspect

Cheers.
The two day run-up was due to the vaccine news. Now that reality is saying the first 25M production batch is for the world and not just for the US, and that we still have far to go, stocks are coming back down.

It's funny because as Travel and Leisure stocks were escalating, "Work at / Shop at Home" tech stocks were falling due to the thought that the genie will go back in the bottle and all will go back to "normal" quickly .

That 2 day pattern is now in reverse, but I was able to sell the T&L highs and buy the Tech lows simultaneously. I'm enjoying this little trading arbitrage tunnel that the virus and any related good or bad news over the last several months has created; a bit of positivity coming out of 2020 volatility.

Last edited by zafiro; 11-11-2020 at 07:18 PM.
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Old 11-11-2020, 10:50 PM   #4
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It's hard to play earnings, so don't. If you like your gains, go ahead and take them. Otherwise, it's unpredictable.

Bad news doesn't always mean a dip. It depends on how bad vs expectations. Or sometimes you'll see a company crush earnings (wrt expectations) and still dip 5% the next day.

Use me as an example. I held AAPL, SQ, and PYPL calls through earnings, so I watched all 3. AAPL tanked on iphone revenue being way down, even though the company's balance sheet and overall revenue numbers beat expectations. PYPL crushed earnings and nosedived the next day. SQ crushed earnings and went on a huge run, before coming back down to earth a few days ago. And earlier this year TSLA missed, but didn't miss bad enough, so they rallied.
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Old 11-12-2020, 11:04 AM   #5
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I was quite thankful for Monday's pop and sold all my remaining shares of DIS at $146. I'm out.

@zafiro, I like your mention of having "sold off about 1/2 of" a given stock. I've been using that approach often through this year. I figure, if I sell 1/2 and that stock later tanks, I'm happy for what I was able to preserve (convert to cash) and will sit patiently for the remainder to recover. On the other hand, if I sell 1/2 and the market surges, I'm happy both with what I preserved AND that my remaining investment is still working in my favor. Yippie!
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Old 11-12-2020, 12:33 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flypwm View Post
It's hard to play earnings, so don't. If you like your gains, go ahead and take them. Otherwise, it's unpredictable.

Bad news doesn't always mean a dip. It depends on how bad vs expectations. Or sometimes you'll see a company crush earnings (wrt expectations) and still dip 5% the next day.

Use me as an example. I held AAPL, SQ, and PYPL calls through earnings, so I watched all 3. AAPL tanked on iphone revenue being way down, even though the company's balance sheet and overall revenue numbers beat expectations. PYPL crushed earnings and nosedived the next day. SQ crushed earnings and went on a huge run, before coming back down to earth a few days ago. And earlier this year TSLA missed, but didn't miss bad enough, so they rallied.
Agreed, market is a long term play either way. Also The future has as much to do with the price movement as current earnings. The parks losing money is already priced in currently, the street is going to want to know how Disney+ is doing and what they are planning going forward.
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:05 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by bwvBound View Post
I was quite thankful for Monday's pop and sold all my remaining shares of DIS at $146. I'm out.

@zafiro, I like your mention of having "sold off about 1/2 of" a given stock. I've been using that approach often through this year. I figure, if I sell 1/2 and that stock later tanks, I'm happy for what I was able to preserve (convert to cash) and will sit patiently for the remainder to recover. On the other hand, if I sell 1/2 and the market surges, I'm happy both with what I preserved AND that my remaining investment is still working in my favor. Yippie!
Exactly my sentiments!!! What's the saying; "Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered"? I like having that cash sitting around for dips and rebalancing opportunities.
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:09 PM   #8
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Exactly my sentiments!!! What's the saying; "Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered"? I like having that cash sitting around for dips and rebalancing opportunities.
mr.s brp says the same thing. Ahd she got that one from her dad.

Also, if one can sell half and make back all, or most, of the original stake, then one is playing with the house's money. it's a no-lose.

Cheers.
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:21 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flypwm View Post
It's hard to play earnings, so don't. If you like your gains, go ahead and take them. Otherwise, it's unpredictable.

Bad news doesn't always mean a dip. It depends on how bad vs expectations. Or sometimes you'll see a company crush earnings (wrt expectations) and still dip 5% the next day.

Use me as an example. I held AAPL, SQ, and PYPL calls through earnings, so I watched all 3. AAPL tanked on iphone revenue being way down, even though the company's balance sheet and overall revenue numbers beat expectations. PYPL crushed earnings and nosedived the next day. SQ crushed earnings and went on a huge run, before coming back down to earth a few days ago. And earlier this year TSLA missed, but didn't miss bad enough, so they rallied.
I don't play options so I'm typically looking for long term buys, which has worked well for me. I bought TSLA shortly after IPO in 2011 and have been adding on the big dips ever since - through all of the short seller craziness, bad press and countless reviews of a tech company burning through cash. Did the same with AMZN and AAPL before TSLA. I prefer tech because I understand tech, but options are a bit too risky for me at the moment. Maybe someday.

Last edited by zafiro; 11-12-2020 at 01:28 PM.
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Old 11-12-2020, 01:26 PM   #10
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mr.s brp says the same thing. Ahd she got that one from her dad.

Also, if one can sell half and make back all, or most, of the original stake, then one is playing with the house's money. it's a no-lose.

Cheers.
Sounds like mrs. brp and I are of similar mind. My grandfather was my financial mentor. He didn't "play" with stocks, but he understood "value" and told me that there was no use in penny pinching, saving and growing your earnings unless you took some of that stash to have fun along the way as well because life is always shorter than you expect.
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