:( DISAPPOINTING BLT RUMORS from DEEP CROAKER :(

[greenban]

Hey fellow MouseOwners! Sorry for being so scarce lately, but a lot of real-world irons (in the prevebial fire) needed tending to. I just had a rather disheartening discussion with DEEP CROAKER.

Remember these are RUMORS and have not been confirmed with a second source as of yet.

1) With the exception of Cruise sales, all DVC sales units have missed their goals for the year. Jim Lewis is very unhappy. Many Guides believe the problem was caused by Jim Lewis' choice of Steve Harvey (I don't know this person by name) as the lead advertising focus of last year. And guess what? supposedly, they just renewed their 'contract' with Mr. Harvey for next year!

2) NYC sales center is gonna happen soon, and may be in Northern New Jersey versus NYC proper. The IL and NY centers have been getting the best sales incentives even though it costs much more to sell at those locations than via the telephone sales-guide system. Some animosity is developing between these sales branches.

3) A bigwig on the BLT steering committee has a serious health problem that has required long hospitalizations and has thrown all schedules out the door. Guides who were told not to vacation in June and July, are again being told to vacation immediatly or not at all.

4) So, with disappointing 2007 FY sales, October 1st (Disney's next FY) is looking out to be the sales date (back to our original prediction nearly a half a year ago....... BUT many senior agents expect sales to begin on the Member's Cruise this September. DC just doesn't know. Also, BLT has *NOT* been declared part of DVC internally yet, despite the take out restaurant reported in the Sentinal.

5) Now the bad news....... Price per point *RUMORED* originally to have been $180 per point. That is not a typo. Management feels they could have sold out at that level last year (before the credit/mortgage crunch) became known. DC feels the delay in starting sales may even extend to the election. He expects points to go for $140.00pp PLUS. I hope he is wrong!

6) This is a direct Jim Lewis quote, "...Get ready because sales will be announced one week before sales start, and DVC Owners will have only one week to purchase before BLT is offered to the general public..." Now that seems to be a confirmation of BLTs DVC status to me, but hey I wasn't at this meeting.

7) Project Crystal is the current 'code' name for DVC at the contemporary.

More as I get it!

Gotta Hop!

-Tony

[tomandrobin]

Tony Tony Tony....Where have you been?

[tomandrobin]

Well, just read thru your report and that just seals the deal for me.

It will be interesting to see how well BLT will sell at those prices. It will also be interesting to see the mad rush at the 7 month mark.

Now if we can only see those point charts.....................

[B'rer Karen]

140-180 pp? That is absolutely insane. I didn't have any intention to buy BLT but if I did I'd be giving that up. If this is true, it makes the current AKV deal look even better.

As for Steve Harvey, I didn't realize he was involved in the advertising focus. He is a comedian, had a TV show at one point. I know he was involved with the Disney Dreamers Academy but I never saw any marketing with him in it.

[mountainjourno]

Welcome back Tony :)

Now the bad news....... Price per point *RUMORED* originally to have been $180 per point. That is not a typo. Management feels they could have sold out at that level last year (before the credit/mortgage crunch) became known. DC feels the delay in starting sales may even extend to the election. He expects points to go for $140.00pp PLUS. I hope he is wrong!



This is wonderful news! It's so ludicrious it's funny. If they raise the per point price to such a crazy level then:

1) It will be so easy to get in at 7 months, that I wouldn't need points there anyway
2) It will likely raise the per-point cost of WVL - which I'm about to buy.
3) There is no "3", but I felt only two points didn't seem worthy of my manic laughing at the idea of such a price.

I had considered buying there if the price was right, but if it's even remotely close to the $140 amount, I'll just take my chances at 7 months. And if I don't get in there...oh well, have to settle for one of my other lovely DVCs!

Thanks for the update!

[TikiTwinsDad]

glad to see some news, I guess, but best is at least we know Tony is alive and hasn't croaked.

I don't consider myself a likely BLT buyer, and I agree with mountainjourno's assessment, this could be good news for someone like myself who would like to stay there because of its location but the theme doesn't do it for me, so we'll survive even if we can't ever get in. We'll just try for a few nights or 2 around the 7-month mark.

I agree that the premium they are asking seems a tad insane. I just don't get that at all. It doesn't work that way with CRO rooms, why would it work that way with a DVC room. If anything DVC'ers may be less likely to use the parks than other guests. The only way I can see it making sense is if there are other perks (such as if they limit the "Top of the World" structure on top, have some great pool, concierge, something!).

My take away is, though, if they can't get the ridiculous $80 premium on the front end purchases (and have to settle for $40 b/c of the economt), I imagine the point charts will be inflated accordingly to make up for that. The economy has to turn around at some point, right?

Welcome back, Tony, again. Hope all is well.

[suecait]

First let me say I hope everything is okay in the real world for you. I have missed your news & insight here.

I am with others, $140/point no way. VWL is looking real nice then. So if this is true what will it do to the price of VWL & other resorts? AKV will still be on sale when this is announced (assuming is Oct), how can they sell two resorts at such a large price gap? Excluding incentives has DVC sold resorts for different prices? And if so, what was the price gap then?

[Laxmom]

Missed you green buddy!

Wow, interesting news, as always!! I can't imagine $180 per point. $140 maybe to some not to me. I figured Oct all along. Just makes good business sense. Very enlightening! Can't wait for the next installment.

[tomandrobin]

At least with BLT selling at $140 per point, it won't cut into AKV sales.

I wonder where GCV are going to cost per point? any word on them?

I also wonder is this the kind of pricing we can expect for Hawaii!

And Tony.....you are the best! :worship:

[salmoneous]

$180? I wasn't going to post while away, but had to drop in for a quick comment . Either

1) DVC managers are the biggestest idiots on the planet, or
2) Somebody along the chain (source -> Croaker -> Tony) is having fun and playing a joke.

[bigbahamadada]

Over the past few months, I've gone from not at all interested, to being slightly enamored with the thought of 100 points at BLT. If prices are anywhere close to these levels, the interest level is back to zero. And this from someone who will be paying cash to stay at the Contemporary this weekend.

If for the same up front cost, I could have 100 points at BLT or 170+ points at VWL via resale - that's not exactly a tough call. Give me more VWL in a heatbeat. The extra 5 days I could stay each year will more than offset the convenience of being able to walk to MK.

[im4disney]

While there appears to be lots of interest in BLT here in internet/disney message board land; in this economy, I just don't think there is any way many folks will pay $140pp. Yeah, some would jump right away, but I think that things would cool very, very quickly.

We are very serious about BLT; but at that price per point, we would be in "wait and see" mode. It should be very interesting in the next six months or so.

I don't believe anyone really knows what is going to happen, but Disney is going to have to "pull the trigger" on BLT soon.

[sk8belle]

If they are having problems with sales units reaching their goals at the current pp structure, with their current marketing plan (I know who Steve Harvey is, but have NEVER seen any DVC marketing with him in it), do they really think pricing BLT at $140+ :scary: is going to improve things? Maybe not being able to reach those goals has to do with something other than bad/misdirected marketing. Granted, there are those who will pay that price, but are there enough to sell out BLT? That just doesn't seem realistic.

[Ransom]

Looks like I better buy my VWL add-on real soon now...

[robinb]

I am a probable BLT buyer, but not at $140 per point. That's absolutely insane. Maybe they are just "softening" us up for a $110+ price point ... we'll feel lucky to "only" pay $110 instead of $140.

[zulaya]

I think I may have seen Steve Harvey in one Disney Files magazine, but I may not be remembering right.

Maybe I'm the wrong demographic for them. :idontgeti

DVC should have expected this with the economy being as it is. They should have revised their goals when it was obvious that a lot of people are financially strapped or tightening their belts. That's their fault.

That being said, $140 per point...I don't know...maybe they are hoping the Europeans with their favorable exchange rate will pick up the slack. But it's just as expensive for them to fly over to the US now, so who knows?

[DVC Mike]

Maybe they are just floating this rumored price of $140+ per point through the DVC community to help push AKV sales? It would certainly help them reach their sales targets for this fiscal year.

I just don't see them selling BLT for $140 per point come October 1st.

[HauntedPirate]

$140/point? In the current economy? :lmbo: I guess we all knew DVC management wasn't a bunch of geniuses, but this is the icing on the proverbial cake. There's no way on God's green earth I'll pay $140/pt for the Contemporary tower. I'll go pony up $90/pt at BCV or less at VWL and be much happier.

The points chart will be interesting as well. My interpretation is that the points chart is the MAXIMUM number of points that can be charged per room, per year, correct? If so, then they could put out an outrageous initial points chart (ante up at 40/night for a studio, anyone? Maybe 80/night for a 2-br?), and then scale it back when no one wants to stay there.

Morons.... :headbange

Oh yes, welcome back, Tony! Hope all is well.

[mountainjourno]

The points chart will be interesting as well. My interpretation is that the points chart is the MAXIMUM number of points that can be charged per room, per year, correct? If so, then they could put out an outrageous initial points chart (ante up at 40/night for a studio, anyone? Maybe 80/night for a 2-br?), and then scale it back when no one wants to stay there.




No - this is kinda the "matter can not be created nor destroyed" situation. Once point chart is in action (and the sales have started), they can't just remove points, they'd need to reallocate them to different nights or categories for the same resort. They can't just remove points off the charts altogether. So they'll need to think very carefully about this!

[jbrowna]

As long as they keep the point charts reasonable, I can see them trying to overprice the points. After all, they can always offer some incentive to bring the price down. But once they file the point charts, they'll be stuck with them for the life of the contract -- presumably 50 years -- so I hope they keep the charts in line with other resorts. Like others have suggested, I might be willing to pay a small premium over the cost of AKV points, but not as much as this rumor says. At what's being rumored I'd just take my chance with my cheaper points at the 7 month mark.

Of course, I suppose they could impose a restriction that wouldn't allow non-owners to book there -- I believe that would be allowed under DVC contracts, since the only resort you are guaranteed to be able to book at is the resort you actually own. But I think if they tried that they might find themselves with a lot of unhappy DVC'ers and an empty building! Besides, if they did that, would that mean BLT owners would be prohibited from using their points to book at other DVC resorts? Meaning, they'd pay a premium price for points that are less flexible? Man, I'd hate to try and sell THAT!

I suspect that they might try to price the GCV points that high, or even higher, since my opinion is that most of the contracts sold there will be in the 25-50 point range, so the overall cost won't pinch so much. But I think if they go that high for BLT they're going to find it even harder to reach their sales goals.

[Colorado Belle]

In some ways, IF they sold BLT for $180 per point, this would benefit those of us who already own DVC.

Let me explain.

There are some people who actually research their purchases on the internet and on this and other DVC websites, before buying. There are quite a few however, that rely on info supplied to them by the guides.

No guide is gonna tell any prospective buyer that 'oh yeah, if you buy into BLT at $180 per point, that your points will carry the same 'renting of a unit' as those who bought OKW at $50 a point. They will be told that they get an 11 month window to book BLT because that's a selling point.
They also won't be told that if they ever rent out their points, that they could expect the same average rental cost ($10-14.50) that all other DVC owners enjoy.

The reason it benefits those of us who are already DVC owners is that at 7 months, our points at $50-100 cost per point are 'worth' the same as the BLTs points when securing a ressie.

It's good for all owners here and now, that BLT sells for as high a price as possible because it makes our points even more valuable. So all you have to do is NOT buy and let those who only speak to the guides buy.

BTW, when I was out at Disneyland this past spring, I was told by a guide for GC that they wanted to sell them at $125 -150 per point. AND have a really high point structure.

Unless they change the rules about reserving these resports with regular DVC points (meaning that unless a GC owner or BLT owner can rent a unit for less points than the rest of us, it makes no economic sense for anyone to pay the higher point cost. I think Disney relies on people coming to them for their info...and not reading my humble little post. So for me, I wish Disney well....sell those suckers at $200 a point if they can...and I'll be happy that I bought a few years back at under $80.

[tomandrobin]

I think the better approach would be to ramp up the points per night, then the cost per point. At $140 pp, no owner in his right mind is going to trade out at the 7 month mark. It'll be rentals only.

I can see it now.....

Looking for two bedrom Magic Kingdom view, looking to pay $10 per point!

At least is the points per night are 50% higher then the other resorts, the initial price per point can remain about the same as all the rest.

[jbrowna]

The points chart will be interesting as well. My interpretation is that the points chart is the MAXIMUM number of points that can be charged per room, per year, correct? If so, then they could put out an outrageous initial points chart (ante up at 40/night for a studio, anyone? Maybe 80/night for a 2-br?), and then scale it back when no one wants to stay there.


Remember that points actually represent a real estate interest. So if they suddenly say a room is not worth as many points, then they are lowering the real estate value of the point -- I don't think they can legally do that. As others said, they can shift points around (as they do from year-to-year for Easter Week), but they can't change the overall number of points at a given resort. If it takes X number of points to fill up a fully built resort for a year (the number of points it would take to completely own a resort), then X has to remain constant. You can divide X up any number of ways you want (which is what a timeshare does), but you can't change X.

[pixiechick]

Wow. I'm still thinking the ramifications of all of this though, so no comments.
:headache:

I just wanted to thank Tony, and Deep Croaker, for the info.

[HauntedPirate]

Thanks for the clarification on the points. I'm not sure where I got the idea, but I was obviously mistaken. :)

I still think they're going to charge too many points/night and want too much $$$ per point. I hope they prove me wrong, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

[jbrowna]

I still think they're going to charge too many points/night and want too much $$$ per point. I hope they prove me wrong, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

If they do, those two things in combination with the economy might just be a "perfect storm" to create a DVC shipwreck! :scary:

[Blue&Gold]

Sad... All very sad.

[Starr W.]

I think the better approach would be to ramp up the points per night, then the cost per point. At $140 pp, no owner in his right mind is going to trade out at the 7 month mark. It'll be rentals only.

I can see it now.....

Looking for two bedrom Magic Kingdom view, looking to pay $10 per point!

At least is the points per night are 50% higher then the other resorts, the initial price per point can remain about the same as all the rest.

This is what I would hope they would do.

[apurplebrat]

Wow, we were thinking about possibly buying BLT but no way at those potential prices

[mgilmer]

Well it may not do any good, but I just sent Steve Jobs an email and asked him to use his considerable clout to fire Jim Lewis for being a complete idiot.

[CLSCT]

I see the mention herein of purchasing VWL instead (which I love) but is that resale or through DVC? Can I still buy VWL through my guide, but maybe I'd do resale instead....

[Blue&Gold]

I see the mention herein of purchasing VWL instead (which I love) but is that resale or through DVC? Can I still buy VWL through my guide, but maybe I'd do resale instead....

Yes, you can buy VWL through your Guide... It's not their focus, they'll push you elsewhere, but if they have inventory in your use year (if you already have a master contract elsewhere), go for it---or be put on the wait list.

Lots of VWL contracts on the resale market... Looks like some "I've got to be closest to MK" owners were clearing their books to buy BLT. Wonder how many will feel like they've been bitten in the *** by DVC if this pricing rumor is even close to being true?

[mountainjourno]

Well it may not do any good, but I just sent Steve Jobs an email and asked him to use his considerable clout to fire Jim Lewis for being a complete idiot.

Huh? But this is all just a rumour - nothing has actually been announced yet, and anything can change on a moment's notice.

Personally, I'm not worried. Either option is okay. If the points are expensive, we won't buy them and will just use our current DVC contracts. If they're cheap - we will. Either way, we still get to go have fun at WDW :bluebloun

[Jeanninepl]

I was a prospective DVC owner who was waiting for BLT to buy. Now seeing this, if it is true, has me second guessing. If they make me buy 160 pts - that is a 23K buy-in, at least, depending on how much I would need if they raise the points to stay there.

We got to Disney and stay on the monorail every other year. For 23K, and since I usually get a 20-40% off pin code, I could vacation for the next 10 years and not make my money back.

I am ANXIOUSLY awaiting the announcement on buy-in costs, points needed, and maintainence fees to see if I will ever be a DVC owner!!!

[mgilmer]

Huh? But this is all just a rumour - nothing has actually been announced yet, and anything can change on a moment's notice.

Personally, I'm not worried. Either option is okay. If the points are expensive, we won't buy them and will just use our current DVC contracts. If they're cheap - we will. Either way, we still get to go have fun at WDW :bluebloun

Its not just this. Its the "new and improved booking system" and all the other missteps since Jim Lewis took over as head of DVC. The guy is incompetent.

[B'rer Karen]

Its not just this. Its the "new and improved booking system" and all the other missteps since Jim Lewis took over as head of DVC. The guy is incompetent.

Okay, so how can Steve Jobs help with that?

[Leftcoaster]

At least with BLT selling at $140 per point, it won't cut into AKV sales.

I wonder where GCV are going to cost per point? any word on them?



My source was telling me a similar price range as what they are saying for BLT. I didn't report it as I thought it was too unbelievable. But not, hearing about BLT, I can see they will try to price GCV accordingly.

[harmrose22]

My source was telling me a similar price range as what they are saying for BLT. I didn't report it as I thought it was too unbelievable. But not, hearing about BLT, I can see they will try to price GCV accordingly.

If that is the case for BLT and GCV, I think we will end up passing on both. That price point is just to high.

I do think that Mike makes a good point, though. Are they just trying to get people to buy AKV by leaking a higher price than planned? However, for those who want to be close to MK, I think it will just end up pushing people to buy VWL, especially if there are a lot of resale contracts out there now. On this thread alone, almost everyone who mentioned buying elsewhere, mentioned VWL instead of AKV. It sounds like an odd strategy to me but this has been the year of all things odd with DVC!!!

[erikthewise]

They might have sold a floor or two to complete idiots at $180/pt. At $140 a point, it will take years to sell it out. There are only so many people out there for whom money is not an object. Many wealthy people got that way and stay that way by being careful with their money, and won't accept a poor value even when they can well afford it. And for people who want to spend a lot of money, there will be competition from the Ritz Carlton and adjacent fractional ownership units that are planned.

[SwampFox]

My source was telling me a similar price range as what they are saying for BLT. I didn't report it as I thought it was too unbelievable. But not, hearing about BLT, I can see they will try to price GCV accordingly.
Thanks for showing the restraint not to post outlandish rumours.

It seems this is from the same "reliable source" who stated that BLT sales would begin on July 1 (and that all DVC guide vacations had been suspended and that CM discounts ended on June 30). Near the end of June, the same "reliable source" updated the "reliable" information stating that BLT would begin sales "no later than August 15" and that DVC sales were above projections so BLT was being delayed into the next fiscal year.

Now that August 15 will apparently come and go without no comments from Disney about BLT, this "reliable source" has had to again update his wonderful rumors with more "reliability".

Why not just wait until DVC makes an announcement instead of screaming that the "Sky is Falling" time-after-time-after-time?

Many thanks to Tony for yet another great laugh.

[cheapmom]

This is hilarious. This has to be some kind of joke.

[Laxmom]

Tony specified that this was rumor in big, bold letters. Period. Last time I looked rumor meant may or may not be true. So, take it for what it is. Hey, it kills time and got you to read it and post, Swampfox!:kickingco

[lenshanem]

What a joke. They must think people are real idiots. I'm really surprised given the current economy. No thanks, we'll pass at that price. We'll happily stay at our BCV and VWL. We'll just have to take the boat from VWL to MK instead of walking. And really that is not a bad thing!

With ticket prices going up, cutbacks on shows, destroying the quality of food while raising the prices, stupid new booking policies... Really, this makes the BLT add on a no brainier. We won't be suckers this time! Oh, well...

I love going to WDW, but at what point will people just stop and say - no more? Personally, last couple trips and future ones we're spending way less than before. Really, I can't keep justifying the dining prices anymore.

And what is with only a week of sales for current DVC owners before offering it to the general public? Sounds like no chance for any kind of special incentives???

This rumor actually disgusts me.

[SwampFox]

Tony specified that this was rumor in big, bold letters. Period. Last time I looked rumor meant may or may not be true. So, take it for what it is. Hey, it kills time and got you to read it and post, Swampfox!:kickingco

Yeah - and the big bold rumour is from the same source as always and as usual is good for nothing but yet another big laugh.

Careful, that sky will get you too! :)

[carolina_yankee]

Why not just wait until DVC makes an announcement instead of screaming that the "Sky is Falling" time-after-time-after-time?

Many thanks to Tony for yet another great laugh.

Tony can certainly take care of himself, but I don't think the tone of the post is very fair. Since LeftCoaster verified he had already heard a similar price rumor for GCV, that shows consistency from two different sources. Both have given us the information as Rumor - so that's all it is until we know more.

Over the years, DeepCroaker has been fairly on target, so I don't think Tony or DC is playing around with us at all. Tony was pretty clear that things seem somewhat chaotic within DVC around BLT - not declared into inventory yet, a major illness for the project leader, rapidly changing economic circumstances. The changes don't surprise me.

Each time DC gave Tony the information, it may well have been the most accurate information at that time, but things can happen to make changes until the last minute. As one Disney manager said to me once, "This is Disney. Nothing is for certain."

Dirk

[Blue&Gold]

Thanks for showing the restraint not to post outlandish rumours.


Outlandish rumors are half the fun around here!

[carolina_yankee]

They might have sold a floor or two to complete idiots at $180/pt. .

One way to justify the price would be to make BLT a mixed-use building. We've heard in the past that Disney hasn't committed to making the full building DVC. Since nothing has been declared into DVC yet, there's room for any last minuted decisions. Would that price be more realistic if, say, 25% of BLT were DVC villas?

After all, DVC may be counting on their being enough 'complete idiots' for 25% of the building. :D

Dirk

[Laxmom]

Carolina Yankee, you are again the voice of reason!

[SwampFox]

Tony can certainly take care of himself, but I don't think the tone of the post is very fair.

Sorry, I wrongly assumed that it's "fair" to point out the recent record of the predictions from this source.

I apologize for not being "fair". It appears that there are different definitions for the word.

[lenshanem]

Funny, I told DH about this tonight and he mentioned this is like double what we paid for BCV. We paid $74 per point. Now in our minds is BLT worth that much more than BCV?!? I know this was a few years ago, but really!

[pixiechick]

Funny, I told DH about this tonight and he mentioned this is like double what we paid for BCV. We paid $74 per point. Now in our minds is BLT worth that much more than BCV?!? I know this was a few years ago, but really!


DH and I had the same conversation. We had discussed selling off some of our BCV points in order to buy BLT. We bought in to BCV when it opened, and fortunately, with a CM discount. It would have never been a good financial trade-off, but we would have enjoyed the points/location. NO WAY would I make that trade now, not at that rumored price point.

As a matter of fact, the piece we'd sell off is "extra" points that we really don't need. If anything, we'd sell them and use the money not to vacation at Disney, but somewhere else. DVC may have cured me of any add-on-itis, if this turns out to be close to true.

[Deb & Bill]

Couldn't DVC just inflate the number of points for a stay and accomplish the same thing? Like 20 points for a studio, Sun - Thur, 40 Fri and Sat. It would keep owners like me who bought at $50 a point at OKW from staying there.

If they go with $140 or $180 a point, sales can not go well with this economy. Then that will leave fewer villas available at 7 months out for points stays. They will fill the place up with CRO reservations, no matter the nightly price.

Plus raise the minimum number of points for a new contract to 250 or whatever it would take for a week's stay and add-ons to 100 or more and then intervals of 25 only over 100.

Maybe they hired the CEO from Exxon to consult with DVC management.

[Blue&Gold]

Sorry, I wrongly assumed that it's "fair" to point out the recent record of the predictions from this source.

I think it is entirely reasonable to question the veracity of a rumor. Caveat emptor in the realm of "information."

[pycees312]

First off thanks Tony for the info rumor or not I appreciate you trying to get info for all of us in cyberland..

180 sounds like alot however in timeshare land most companies are looking to create the " elite/ and or tiered" type of timeshare experience and charge an extra premium for it. regardless of the economy most of the decisions were made prior to the meltdown. Disney will now have thier "tiered" timeshare program.
Animal Kingdom will look like the value and
BLT will look like the premium.
Same principals apply those who want to stay at the pop century choose it for affordability
And those that choose the Grand Floridian choose it because it's considered one of the high end hotels on Disney property.

Now of course things change and I doubt it will be 180 however i can see them creating some special incentives for now to get the price down temporarily.....I dont think this will soley be a DVC property anyway if at all...

As for GCV I expect 150-160 PP and reason is I live in California and I wish wish wish our home prices were anywhere near Florida's but it's not.. so why should I expect GCV to be sold at Florida DVC resort prices..

ooh and hello to all the Guides and others who read these forums lol

[Blue&Gold]

Couldn't DVC just inflate the number of points for a stay and accomplish the same thing?

Yes. Most likely scenario is a combination of the two ways of garnering a "premium." Higher point costs and higher cost per point.

It will all come down to how much the location is worth to people... And remember the VAST majority of DVC buyers initially only take the time to learn what the sales guides tell them... Lordy, read some of the questions on these boards that could be answered by simply opening up the member handbook or reading the actual DVC website. I would guess that the target sales audience for this resort isn't too familiar or too concerned with the resale market.

[mgilmer]

Okay, so how can Steve Jobs help with that?

FWIW, Steve Jobs is the largest individual stockholder in The Disney Company with an ownership approaching 10% of the common stock. That. and the fact he is on the Board of Directors and the Executive Committee thereof, gives him more clout at Disney than anybody.

[mikayla73]

Yes. Most likely scenario is a combination of the two ways of garnering a "premium." Higher point costs and higher cost per point.

It will all come down to how much the location is worth to people... And remember the VAST majority of DVC buyers initially only take the time to learn what the sales guides tell them... Lordy, read some of the questions on these boards that could be answered by simply opening up the member handbook or reading the actual DVC website. I would guess that the target sales audience for this resort isn't too familiar or too concerned with the resale market.

Yes - I was one of the VAST majority. :o I had no idea about the DVC sites online, TUG, resales, or any of the other sites that have info for time shares. I didn't have any idea that I could have bought points at other DVC's if I had wanted to. So I am sure there will be plenty of people who don't know more than what their guide tells them, either because they don't know to look for more info, don't want to, or don't care. I have a great guide. She took her time, answered all of our questions, and I don't regret buying site unseen. I just didn't know all of the questions to ask, which is on me not them. I am sure they will be able to get the uninformed people to purchase at a higher price - I don't know about $180pp :holymoly: - but there will be plenty of people who just won't know any better and think that's what it costs. Imagine the shock when they learn about it later!

I have of course become more informed :cool2: since we bought in (thanks MO's!!).

As for the rumors, I hope that they are exactly that, just rumors, especially for VGC because that's where I want to buy next!

Thanks for the info Tony and I hope things are going better and some of your irons are burning down so thing return to normal for you!

[bavaria]

And for people who want to spend a lot of money, there will be competition from the Ritz Carlton and adjacent fractional ownership units that are planned.

And DVC simply doesn't have the service to compete. Product has also been lacking, although the BLT and GCV product seems to be better than other current DVC product. But if upkeep on those products is the same as we see at current DVC, then I fear that it will not be maintained at the opening standard.

The NJ/NY sales centre is interesting. I have friends in that area who pay for a week at a monorail resort which equals about 1/3-1/2 of a current DVC buy in. The proposed BLT price wouldn't deter them, obviously.

[NYDVC]

tony as always thatnks for the info.

I struggle with the logic of this rumour. If they are going to sell the sandwich at 140/180 and also offer the AKV for 104 at the same time? Previoous post talk about selling doing better when there are options?


Also, they certainly have the location, but being round, there are not that many with views of MK. Certainly not 50% like the A-frame. I certainly agree, If any of these rumours are true, I will wait for the sales. and I think there will be.

[cheapmom]

by Carolina Yankee: Over the years, DeepCroaker has been fairly on target,
There is no question in my mind that DC is the real deal. He came out with spot-on point charts for AKV weeks before anyone else. You can't make that up.

I just don't understand how they are going to sell this product at a price point of $140 when you compare a cash stay- it makes no financial sense. I would love to see the Magic Guide Math that will convince people to buy at $140. Can't wait to see how this will play out. Sadly though, I think I have gone from being a player in waiting to a spectator.

[Plutofan2]

Thanks Tony for posting this information.

[DVC-To-Be]

Animal Kingdom will look like the value and
BLT will look like the premium.
Same principals apply those who want to stay at the pop century choose it for affordability
And those that choose the Grand Floridian choose it because it's considered one of the high end hotels on Disney property.


The only problem with that reasoning is that there are no people staying at GF for the price you would pay to stay at Pop Century, so this is why people will pay a premium to stay there, because everyone has to.

This is not the case with DVC. There could be people in the next room who bought there points at OKW for $50 having the same experience as you. I don't care how much money you have, no one wants to look like a mug. The only people who would want to do this are those who do not understand DVC and don't realise that this is the reality of the situation. This means those who don't do much research into the market beforehand, which again makes them a bit of a mug in my book!


That being said, $140 per point...I don't know...maybe they are hoping the Europeans with their favorable exchange rate will pick up the slack. But it's just as expensive for them to fly over to the US now, so who knows?

I am one of these Europeans and we were looking to make our initial DVC purchase split between BLT and BWV. You are right, with the current exchange rate, the figures don't look so bad for us, but they are still a rip off compared to AKV. We may be better off in this climate but we are not idiots! It looks like it will be BWV and either VWL or AKV for us.

We only wanted BLT because of the location on the monorail. It is our least favourite monorail resort, but we would have bought there for the location. Not at this price. We will wait until that DVC at the Poly comes along!

[carolina_yankee]

The NJ/NY sales centre is interesting. I have friends in that area who pay for a week at a monorail resort which equals about 1/3-1/2 of a current DVC buy in. The proposed BLT price wouldn't deter them, obviously.

There is no question in my mind that DC is the real deal. He came out with spot-on point charts for AKV weeks before anyone else. You can't make that up.

I just don't understand how they are going to sell this product at a price point of $140 when you compare a cash stay- it makes no financial sense. I would love to see the Magic Guide Math that will convince people to buy at $140. Can't wait to see how this will play out. Sadly though, I think I have gone from being a player in waiting to a spectator.

OK - taking Bavaria's comment about the cost of a weekly stay at a monorail resort . . .

Using 2009 Rack Rates for Regular Season, a Contemporary Tower MK View Room would be $3430. $4500 if you make concierge. Concierge is probably irrelevant, except that DVC tend to always cost more through CRO than regular rooms in the same mixed resort, so let's say $4500 a week is the value for a BLT studio.

If buy-in is 160 points at $180: $28,800

If buy in is 160 points at $140: $22,400

Using $4500, it would take 6+ stays to justify a $28,800 purchase, or 5 stays to justify a $22,400 purchase. If DVC's market is the folks who plunk down $4500 a week without blinking for what is basically a 3 star room with a great location with a monorail, then I can see them going for either the $140 or $180 price easy.

Schlubs like me will never fork over the money to stay at a monorail resort when I could stay twice as long at Disney at another resort I would be perfectly happy with. So, that offer is lost on me and I laugh at their $180. Yet, I live in a world in which people will happily pull out that checkbook and fill up that resort.

Again, this could be perhaps be an even easier sell if the resort is mixed-use, making DVC even more of an exclusive purchase.

What I don't understand about this whole scenario is the 7 month differential. Why would someone who paid $180 a point for BLT ever stay at any other resort they could have bought for less than $100 a point?

What kind of fuss would a BLT owner put up if he couldn't book at 6 months because we SSR owners grabbed up all the available rooms at the 7 months window?

This would make more sense to me if the cost per point had a slight location premium, but the point charts were through the roof.

It makes me wonder if there will be limited trade-in privileges for non-BLT owners?

Dirk

[carolina_yankee]

Sorry, I wrongly assumed that it's "fair" to point out the recent record of the predictions from this source.

I apologize for not being "fair". It appears that there are different definitions for the word.

SwampFox, I didn't say pointing out the recent record of predictions wasn't fair. I said the I ddin't think the tone of the post was fair. I think we all know that any rumor has to be taken with a grain of salt, particlularly with BLT where we have seen things change on a dime (not the least is the name change).

I was concerned that your mistrust in the rumor was expressed in a way that called Greenban into qeustion. If I read more into your post than was there, I apologize. If not, then I stand by what I said.

Dirk

[erikthewise]

And DVC simply doesn't have the service to compete. Product has also been lacking, although the BLT and GCV product seems to be better than other current DVC product. But if upkeep on those products is the same as we see at current DVC, then I fear that it will not be maintained at the opening standard.

The NJ/NY sales centre is interesting. I have friends in that area who pay for a week at a monorail resort which equals about 1/3-1/2 of a current DVC buy in. The proposed BLT price wouldn't deter them, obviously.

I don't doubt you but I'm having trouble making the arithmetic work. Rack rates for basic room in monorail resorts run $400-$600/night depending on season. (I'm ignoring the South Wing at the Contemporary which starts around $300.) So for a week with taxes we're talking roughly $3000-$4500. A week in a studio/1BR/2BR at BCV/BWV/VWL takes 104-134/200-270/270-350 points. Multiplying by roughly $100/pt gives answers from $10K to $35K.

SO.... only by comparing the rack rates at monorail resorts to a STUDIO in ADVENTURE season do we come close to 1/3 to 1/2 of a DVC buyin! An actual suite, or even a studio in Magic season is going to be a lot more. And of course the eventual cost of that same buyin at the BLT is bound to be even higher still!

Say, you'd make a pretty good DVC salesperson!

At the risk of a nostalgia trip, it hasn't always been this way. I'll restrict myself to this decade. Our 2001 trip at the Polynesian cost us $229/night, in concierge! Basic Garden View was $179. That was not a rack rate, but it was a well-publicized public code. Even still we joined DVC the next year.

Edited to Add: As you can see Dirk replied while I was typing mine.

[Ransom]

This is not the case with DVC. There could be people in the next room who bought there points at OKW for $50 having the same experience as you.

But couldn't they make BLT only for those with BLT points?

I realize that would strongly imply they couldn't trade out either, but isn't it a possibility?

It would certainly work for those who are CR resort fans for life.

[erikthewise]

But couldn't they make BLT only for those with BLT points?

I realize that would strongly imply they couldn't trade out either, but isn't it a possibility?

It would certainly work for those who are CR resort fans for life.

Certainly they could, but then it wouldn't be DVC, would it? BLVC anyone?

[kapeman]

Now, I fully realize we are in the realm of speculation and supposition, so please bear with me.

IF the price point is as high as rumored and IF the BLT becomes a failure from a sales standpoint (granted this is a real stretch, but others have suggested it) then the current DVC top management may have just killed any more DVC monorail properties.

Based on they way they handled and reacted to the poor performance of the HH property, even though it could be said it was poorly planned, they may react the same way to the idea of any further monorail resorts based on their poor execution on the BLT property.

[Ransom]

Certainly they could, but then it wouldn't be DVC, would it? BLVC anyone?

As I understand it, all any of us are guaranteed is the ability to book at our home resorts. Is that not true?

[NYDVC]

As I understand it, all any of us are guaranteed is the ability to book at our home resorts. Is that not true?

Yes thats true, but a big sales benefit is the option to go to other DVC and Outside resorts. How would they sell sandwich as you can only stay there? That will be a big disadvantage to alot of people. I can see BLT people turning there nose up at SSR and OKW (which I own BTW) but they certainly would want to to stay at AKV for the view at times or other monorail reosrts down the road. IMHO

[greenban]

Hey Gals & Guys!

Thanks for the welcomes back :blush

I'm home on a sick day today (Just a virus, nothing serious), and the irons in my fire are all positive, all exciting options and oportunities, nothing to worry about!

I can't prove DVC->Source->DC->Tony aren't playing a joke on us, but I am not making up what DC told me. :innocent:

I personally believe that the DVC PTB are aware of DC rumors, and they could be using them to 'feel out' the price per point. Of course, if I actually believed that our opinions were that important, I'd probably also be hearing more voices in my head than I do now. :jawdroppi

Many great points in the replies to the RUMORS were offerred. DC did mention the posibility of a teired DVC, with the BLT being the first of the Deluxe DVCs.


Deluxe DVC will appeal to the rich, no financial cruch there!
Europeans typically holiday for 21+ days, so airfare is less significant to them than us the 5-7 day vacationeers. Plus their strong currencies make purchase affordable, and their food costs here are so low (compared to their home costs) that they will save enough to more than cover their airfare increases
Locking out trades from the Original DVCs might really hamper rental activities, directly and indirectly, a clear PTP goal! Not to mention reducing the SSR trade out problem (a.k.a. limited 7 month availability!)


He also mentioned the 'abandoned' POP buildings that are currently rumoured to be the first value DVC :faint: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSc1fG0ETeY
http://forums.wdwmagic.com/showthread.php?t=335863

Thanks to www.wdwmagic for the links

I find the possible pricing disappointing too, but while I wouldn't buy 500 points I'd still buy some.

-Tony

[Ransom]

Yes thats true, but a big sales benefit is the option to go to other DVC and Outside resorts. How would they sell sandwich as you can only stay there? That will be a big disadvantage to alot of people. I can see BLT people turning there nose up at SSR and OKW (which I own BTW) but they certainly would want to to stay at AKV for the view at times or other monorail reosrts down the road. IMHO

Oh, I quite agree. I was just tossing the idea out there, along with the theories that it might be a small amount of DVC units in the building, that there might be a vats points/night disparity between BLT and the others, and the like.

The way I see it, if BLT were to be offered at a significantly higher cost of points than any other resort, then the only way that could be made to work would be to keep the rest of us out of there. The logical way to charge more for the resort would be to make the rooms have a very high cost in points, but that's not what's being rumored at this point. So I tried to come up with a way the rumor could work out, and that's what I came up with. :)

Of course, my theory, if true, would require a lot of buttressing to make it work for Disney. Either they'd have to severely limit the number of DVC units in BLT, or they'd have to allow trade-outs and trade-ins along the lines of II with the other DVC units (that is, charge some fees). As was pointed out, there probably aren't a lot of people who would be happy staying only at BLT on their dearly purchased points. We know there would be some, but it would appear unlikely that they'd get enough to fill that whole building every night and all year long.

Anyway. I'm just having fun with the rumor... :)

[DarkSoldier]

the more i think about it, this just doesnt sound like it would be a good deal at all, I can understand maybe charging 110 per point, and raising the point charts. that would be a more feasible idea than charging people 140+ per point, and then still only requiring 12 points for one night in a studio. that just means you would be paying that extra 40 bucks per point, just so you can book 5 more months in advance of everyone else, and no other real benefits. not to mention how much the annual dues would be? yikes!

[NYDVC]

Hey Gals & Guys!



Many great points in the replies to the RUMORS were offerred. DC did mention the posibility of a teired DVC, with the BLT being the first of the Deluxe DVCs.


Deluxe DVC will appeal to the rich, no financial cruch there!
Europeans typically holiday for 21+ days, so airfare is less significant to them than us the 5-7 day vacationeers. Plus their strong currencies make purchase affordable, and their food costs here are so low (compared to their home costs) that they will save enough to more than cover their airfare increases
Locking out trades from the Original DVCs might really hamper rental activities, directly and indirectly, a clear PTP goal!



-Tony



WOW; wonder what this would look like?

daily maid service: maintenance would be high
concierge : also, higher maintenance

certainly rooms would be upscaled. The people who looked at GCV said there were really upscale, maybe GCV will be 140 PP also?

lots and lots of questions. point sharts will tell alot if we ever get them :sosad:

[tomandrobin]

Many great points in the replies to the RUMORS were offerred. DC did mention the posibility of a teired DVC, with the BLT being the first of the Deluxe DVCs.

He also mentioned the 'abandoned' POP buildings that are currently rumoured to be the first value DVC

-Tony

Some already think there is a teired DVC system....

Teir 1 - BCV/BWV/VWL

Teir 2 - OKW/SSR/AKV

Teir 3 - VB/HHI

I guess all those DVC sales pithches about buying Deluxe DVC accomadations were.....Sales pitches. Pop Century Villas being a value DVC makes sense actually, but again the price per point and booking windows are going to be problem matic. Maybe the Treehouses will be part of that value teir?

[NYDVC]

Some already think there is a teired DVC system....

Teir 1 - BCV/BWV/VWL

Teir 2 - OKW/SSR/AKV

Teir 3 - VB/HHI

I guess all those DVC sales pithches about buying Deluxe DVC accomadations were.....Sales pitches. Pop Century Villas being a value DVC makes sense actually, but again the price per point and booking windows are going to be problem matic. Maybe the Treehouses will be part of that value teir?

So they control the tiers by the points per night. so people will pay 33 to 100% more for 11 month access. And in return they pay higher per night points. WOW that would be a hard sell in my book. Even if the monorail stopped AT MY ROOM to pick me up!!

[Mary]

I think management will see what the market will bear--they can always put a huge "discount" for owners and friends of owners in the beginning to try to jump start their sales. I still love my add on at VWL and wouldn't trade it for BLT anyway!

[Ransom]

So they control the tiers by the points per night. so people will pay 33 to 100% more for 11 month access. And in return they pay higher per night points. WOW that would be a hard sell in my book. Even if the monorail stopped AT MY ROOM to pick me up!!

:hahahaha:

But seriously...if they went with something like the original EPCOT transportation concept of having peoplemovers feed monorails, with a monorail line to each resort and peoplemovers to each building, I'd be able to die happy.

[bavaria]

OK - taking Bavaria's comment about the cost of a weekly stay at a monorail resort . . .

Using 2009 Rack Rates for Regular Season, a Contemporary Tower MK View Room would be $3430. $4500 if you make concierge. Concierge is probably irrelevant, except that DVC tend to always cost more through CRO than regular rooms in the same mixed resort, so let's say $4500 a week is the value for a BLT studio.

I'm talking 2-3 rooms/night, GF and sometimes concierge, for a week. Most of us don't vacation that way, but many people do. For some, they insist on being on the monorail (which never really made sense to me unless one is only going to MK)

These particular people don't consider the current DVC properties to be of good quality (and even GF is really not that deluxe). I could see them considering BLT at DC's prices. These same people also stay at GC at DL, so I could also see them considering GCV.

Granted, this is not a large segment of the WDW traffic, but it may be a new market for DVC which never really considered the current properties a viable option.

[riggins]

Thanks Tony for the info and to everyone else for your thoughts. I can't wait to see what actually comes to pass!!!! We've been anxiously awaiting BLT sales. CR had been our favorite resort for years and since we bought BWV 5 years ago, we haven't gotten to stay there very often. But we stayed at CR earlier this month and had a very disappointing stay. Combine that with these crazy cost rumors and I'm thinking a well-priced resale add-on at OKW might be in our future!!

So, what's everyone's take on how this might impact resale values at some of the other resorts? Right now, there are some good deals on resales out there. Do you think if BLT is announced in October with a $125 - $180/pp buy-in, that will drive up the cost of resales at the other resorts? I'm wondering if we're seeing a "low" in resale values now that will increase with the BLT announcement.

[bavaria]

[LIST]

Europeans typically holiday for 21+ days, so airfare is less significant to them than us the 5-7 day vacationeers. Plus their strong currencies make purchase affordable, and their food costs here are so low (compared to their home costs) that they will save enough to more than cover their airfare increases

I must protest, my sickly hopping friend! :innocent: (and I hope that you feel better soon)

Other than the UK contingent, a poster from Belgium, and my recently arrived Doppelgänger, how many Disney crazed Europeans do we see here? Not many. The reality is that for many Europeans, Disney holds limited or no interest. Shocking, I know. Something like 6% of the visitors to DLRP are German, even though we live next door.

While I agree that there was a recent Euro surge, the surge is subsiding somewhat. Combine that with 19% sales tax, 45% income tax, gas at $10,50/gallon, food costs which rose more year to date than in America (chocolate has *gasp* almost doubled in price this year!) and there isn't much coin left to throw at a BLT purchase. A recent national newspaper front page headline outlined how many of us cannot afford to travel outside German borders anymore.

If anything, I think that you will see more Canadians buying/travelling. That may be the next market for DVC to consider (currently they really only focus on the Ontario market). Remember, those Canadians are sitting quietly on the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world, as well as vast amounts of other natural resources. They may one day soon be a powerhouse! (Again, my apologies to bababear and DSNY FN for revealing their secret plans to dominate the world)

[Cherta]

but could someone please explain the whole "tiered" and "locking out trades from original DVC owners" theories to me? I know we're just speculating here, but is the implication that DVC management could limit or prevent non-BLT owners from booking BLT at the 7-month mark? Would those same BLT owners be able to book at other resorts at the 7-month mark (although I can't see the value of using $180.00 BLT points to book anywhere but BLT)?

It's probably obvious what all this means, but I'm not on the ball yet! :coffee1:

TIA!

[bigbahamadada]

Thinking about how, if I were DVC and were trying to respond to the 7 month problem and to justify the pricing disparity between two currently marketed properties, I wonder:

As part of the tier structure, is it possible that they could have a conversion charge for trades to non-home resorts? Say for example, they set the cost of a studio at BLT at 15 points per night. And any BLT owner who reserved the room with the expensive points would pay 15. But someone trading into another DVC would need to covert their lessor points (e.g a 1.35 to 1 ratio) into Premium DVC points to make a reservation. So, for example, a VWL ower like me would have to pay 20.25 VWL points to reserve the 15 point room at BLT.

And it could work the in reverse as well, a BLT owner could "trade down" into a lessor tier on a favorable term -- 100 BLT points would be worth 135 points somewhere else. And, say there were a value tier, you could trade down again.

I think such a system could be marketable on many levels: To the Pop folks, you could say - 'you can stay cheap or save up over time for that premium experience.'

To the BLT you could say that the initial buy in isn't out of market. If 100 points at BLT are worth 135 AKV points, the $140 cost per point isn't out of line - and you can get longer stays and more value by trading down. While still touting the 11-month window as a reason to pay the up front charge.

To the middle tier (that's us, dear friends), you could tout the flexibility.

What I don't know is if they (a) can do this under their governing documents (I suspect they can) or (b) if they'd want to do this from a optics standpoint (a bit of heartburn to be sure). But again, if I'm sitting in DVDs chair, this kind of tier structure solves a lot of my problems and gives me a great deal of flexiblity going forward that I currently don't have.

And before I get flammed for starting rumors, let me be clear -- this is wild speculation concoted in my own mixed up little head. I've never spoken to a frog, real or imaginary. I don't know anyone at DVC, nor do I particuarly care to. Unless, of course, there are some free FPs in it for me. Or, better yet, a reserved seat at Beaches and Cream. And if DVC is reading this and thinks its a good idea, let's talk; there's more cock and bull theories where this one came from. :howudoin:

[Cherta]

Bigbahamadada,
I don't know if your post was in response to mine, but your scenario makes sense to me-thanks for your thoughts!

[salmoneous]

Cranky notes from far away:

The tiered approach:

- makes the new resort less valuable, since owners have fewer trade options
- makes the existing resorts less valuable since owners no longer have the prospect of trading into new resorts
- greatly angers all your existing members and best customers
- makes people question the whole stability of DVC
- has no advantage that I can think of

The "stupid rich" for whom money is no object don't buy a lot of timeshares.

Europeans have had low airfares and a strong Euro/Pound for a while now, and haven't bought many DVC's. There's no reason to expect the future - with high airfares and fears of *really* high airfares - to suddenly bring in a ton of sales.

All monorail resorts aren't created equal. BLT is essentially a Contemporary Garden Wing. When they were CRO, those rooms weren't exactly beloved. The Beach Club and Boardwalk are at least as popular. Anyone think Disney could sell new DVC's there for $180/point?

DVC has been pushing hard - very hard - on the notion that DVC isn't just a room at your home resort, but a "vacation club" with options all over the globe. They've offered incentive on top of incentive, cut the minimum buy-in, and still can't meet sales goals (side note - weren't we told that BLT was pushed back, in part, because the current fiscal year sales goal had already been met? And now we are told that none of the goals were met. Hmmm - rumors are entertaining, but please people, don't put any stock in them.)

Anyone really think they can meet sales goals at twice the price?

Anyone really think that DVC management thinks they can meet sales goals at twice the price?

PS - I'm digging the DVC-POP rumor. Let's hope!

[TrvlPrincess]

THE FROG IS BACK! :computerg

Tony, you were missed!!, (I think I posted in another thread and someone else too, wondering where were you and what you would say) at any rate thanks for posting again.

As to BLT going for $140-$180, Is that for real? or is it a joke? :confused:

I cannot imagine what the Annual dues will be???!!!

[NYDVC]

Thinking about how, if I were DVC and were trying to respond to the 7 month problem and to justify the pricing disparity between two currently marketed properties, I wonder:

As part of the tier structure, is it possible that they could have a conversion charge for trades to non-home resorts? Say for example, they set the cost of a studio at BLT at 15 points per night. And any BLT owner who reserved the room with the expensive points would pay 15. But someone trading into another DVC would need to covert their lessor points (e.g a 1.35 to 1 ratio) into Premium DVC points to make a reservation. So, for example, a VWL ower like me would have to pay 20.25 VWL points to reserve the 15 point room at BLT.

And it could work the in reverse as well, a BLT owner could "trade down" into a lessor tier on a favorable term -- 100 BLT points would be worth 135 points somewhere else. And, say there were a value tier, you could trade down again.

I think such a system could be marketable on many levels: To the Pop folks, you could say - 'you can stay cheap or save up over time for that premium experience.'

To the BLT you could say that the initial buy in isn't out of market. If 100 points at BLT are worth 135 AKV points, the $140 cost per point isn't out of line - and you can get longer stays and more value by trading down. While still touting the 11-month window as a reason to pay the up front charge.

To the middle tier (that's us, dear friends), you could tout the flexibility.

What I don't know is if they (a) can do this under their governing documents (I suspect they can) or (b) if they'd want to do this from a optics standpoint (a bit of heartburn to be sure). But again, if I'm sitting in DVDs chair, this kind of tier structure solves a lot of my problems and gives me a great deal of flexiblity going forward that I currently don't have.

And before I get flammed for starting rumors, let me be clear -- this is wild speculation concoted in my own mixed up little head. I've never spoken to a frog, real or imaginary. I don't know anyone at DVC, nor do I particuarly care to. Unless, of course, there are some free FPs in it for me. Or, better yet, a reserved seat at Beaches and Cream. And if DVC is reading this and thinks its a good idea, let's talk; there's more cock and bull theories where this one came from. :howudoin:

why? thats my question. why do that when all they have to do is price the point per night higher? seems like a lot of complication for nothing. I own and OKW, I pay more for a studio in BCV now, why not do the same for the sandwich.

[Ransom]

why? thats my question. why do that when all they have to do is price the point per night higher? seems like a lot of complication for nothing. I own and OKW, I pay more for a studio in BCV now, why not do the same for the sandwich.

ITA.

But, to answer your question with a question:

Why were Pressler & Harriss allowed to turn Disneyland into a low-profit mall? Previous (and subsequent) experience had shown exactly how to get max profits out of Disneyland. Yet they were allowed to 'work their magic.'

It's baffling to me how corporate America manages to survive from year to year, honestly.

[pycees312]

If BLT is not going to be the premium "tiered" DVC i guaurantee sometime down the road there will be. I don't think it hurts existing members it just caters to a different market. Whyndam has done it with thier " travelshare program" And I remember reading on the worldmark/Whyndam boards all the older members being upset. But this is the future and an evolution in the timeshare business. It provides for more options. I could just see it now... if hypothetically speaking DVC goes the same way other timeshares have gone and allow for you to use your points for things other than accomodations(park tickets, dinning plans, airfare etc) the backlash they will also get. To me these options are great and if you really want that kind of service get on the boat if not watch the boat float by and carry on.. DVC is very curious right now about trends as far as what works and what does not etc..I was asked numerous questions during my day with them........

so let me ask this.. if you were able to convert points to pay for other services besides accomodations would you go for it then?? Park tickets, dinning plan, airfare, better cruise rates, other cruise lines, etc.. just curious..

[erikthewise]

Cranky notes from far away:

The tiered approach:

- makes the new resort less valuable, since owners have fewer trade options
- makes the existing resorts less valuable since owners no longer have the prospect of trading into new resorts
- greatly angers all your existing members and best customers
- makes people question the whole stability of DVC
- has no advantage that I can think of

The "stupid rich" for whom money is no object don't buy a lot of timeshares.

Europeans have had low airfares and a strong Euro/Pound for a while now, and haven't bought many DVC's. There's no reason to expect the future - with high airfares and fears of *really* high airfares - to suddenly bring in a ton of sales.

All monorail resorts aren't created equal. BLT is essentially a Contemporary Garden Wing. When they were CRO, those rooms weren't exactly beloved. The Beach Club and Boardwalk are at least as popular. Anyone think Disney could sell new DVC's there for $180/point?

DVC has been pushing hard - very hard - on the notion that DVC isn't just a room at your home resort, but a "vacation club" with options all over the globe. They've offered incentive on top of incentive, cut the minimum buy-in, and still can't meet sales goals (side note - weren't we told that BLT was pushed back, in part, because the current fiscal year sales goal had already been met? And now we are told that none of the goals were met. Hmmm - rumors are entertaining, but please people, don't put any stock in them.)

Anyone really think they can meet sales goals at twice the price?

Anyone really think that DVC management thinks they can meet sales goals at twice the price?

PS - I'm digging the DVC-POP rumor. Let's hope!

All good points. I've mentioned before but will do so again that when online polls were taken several years ago about locations of future DVCs, AKL did MUCH better than the Contemporary. But now that it is actually being built, enthusiasm for AKV seems to have subsided, apparently only because it is no longer the Next Great Thing. It's all too likely the same thing will happen to BLT. There's a difference between drooling anticipation :drool: and actually forking over the money, and it's not so easy to predict the conversion rates from "definitely interested" to "definitely going to buy" to "bought". I don't envy the DVC gurus who are attempting to do so as we type.

[suecait]

Thinking about how, if I were DVC and were trying to respond to the 7 month problem and to justify the pricing disparity between two currently marketed properties, I wonder:

As part of the tier structure, is it possible that they could have a conversion charge for trades to non-home resorts? Say for example, they set the cost of a studio at BLT at 15 points per night. And any BLT owner who reserved the room with the expensive points would pay 15. But someone trading into another DVC would need to covert their lessor points (e.g a 1.35 to 1 ratio) into Premium DVC points to make a reservation. So, for example, a VWL ower like me would have to pay 20.25 VWL points to reserve the 15 point room at BLT.

And it could work the in reverse as well, a BLT owner could "trade down" into a lessor tier on a favorable term -- 100 BLT points would be worth 135 points somewhere else. And, say there were a value tier, you could trade down again.

I think such a system could be marketable on many levels: To the Pop folks, you could say - 'you can stay cheap or save up over time for that premium experience.'

To the BLT you could say that the initial buy in isn't out of market. If 100 points at BLT are worth 135 AKV points, the $140 cost per point isn't out of line - and you can get longer stays and more value by trading down. While still touting the 11-month window as a reason to pay the up front charge.

To the middle tier (that's us, dear friends), you could tout the flexibility.

What I don't know is if they (a) can do this under their governing documents (I suspect they can) or (b) if they'd want to do this from a optics standpoint (a bit of heartburn to be sure). But again, if I'm sitting in DVDs chair, this kind of tier structure solves a lot of my problems and gives me a great deal of flexiblity going forward that I currently don't have.

And before I get flammed for starting rumors, let me be clear -- this is wild speculation concoted in my own mixed up little head. I've never spoken to a frog, real or imaginary. I don't know anyone at DVC, nor do I particuarly care to. Unless, of course, there are some free FPs in it for me. Or, better yet, a reserved seat at Beaches and Cream. And if DVC is reading this and thinks its a good idea, let's talk; there's more cock and bull theories where this one came from. :howudoin:

Whoa & people think booking catagories at SSR is too complicated!

No flames. It will be interesting to see what they do. Higher points makes the most sense. JMHO.

[spiceycat]

but could someone please explain the whole "tiered" and "locking out trades from original DVC owners" theories to me? I know we're just speculating here, but is the implication that DVC management could limit or prevent non-BLT owners from booking BLT at the 7-month mark? Would those same BLT owners be able to book at other resorts at the 7-month mark (although I can't see the value of using $180.00 BLT points to book anywhere but BLT)?

It's probably obvious what all this means, but I'm not on the ball yet! :coffee1:

TIA!


DVC did this with VWL - they refused to let non-owners trade in for over a year - believe me I tried - finally gave up and brought VWL.

DVC could easily do the same to BLT.

if you don't own - you can't trade to it.

they offer the entire thing to CRO.

their excuses only the units that have been sold are declared into the DVC market - those are the only ones that can be traded into at this time.

that say, CRO had a sale on VWL - so hoping for the same - might not be able to buy in - but hey a studio for less than a room at the CR. would definitely go that route.

this is very disappointing to me.:grrrrr:

vwl owners could book where they wanted - although most wanted VWL - which was the problem.

expecting the same thing at BLT.

hope really hope this time you are wrong, Tony. $180 a point - well might be able to afford 30 points - but not the 50 points was hoping for - well actually hoping for 100 points - but that is not going to happen.

[spiceycat]

PS - I'm digging the DVC-POP rumor. Let's hope!

would love DVC-POP - but the all star music suites stay almost sold out - (the only part of that resort that does)

so not putting more suites may be a bad move by Disney.

[bigbahamadada]

why? thats my question. why do that when all they have to do is price the point per night higher? seems like a lot of complication for nothing. I own and OKW, I pay more for a studio in BCV now, why not do the same for the sandwich.

It gives DVC another way to differentiate the value of a point. While true that, right now, they can charge different points by resort, I don't think that is enough of a pricing level. Not to mention that their ability to manipulate those pricing levers is restricted by fixed number of points at a particular point chart.

It strikes me that a fundamental problem for DVC is that, at 7 months, a point from any resort is worth the same. And this is a problem because while all points are deemed to be equal in value, not all resorts are valued equally by consumers. As a result, you see wave of activity at 7-months where people try to get a reservation (for very similar point total) at what they consider to be a more valuable resort.

By charging a conversion between tiers, they control the flow of guests and can adjust price to demand. Say, for example, if what they wanted to do was fill up SSR by creating cash rooms at BCV, they could do that by creating a favorable conversion from BCV to SSR or a unfavorable conversion from SSR to BCV.

And, really, if they are going to add "value" DVCs, I think they almost have to go to something like this. Say, for exapmle, they do create a Pop-DVC, and that the buy-in is priced low per point, and the points are worth the same as existing points or BLT points at 7-months.

As a VWL/AKV/BCV owner, I'd be furious at the thought that DVC is under cutting my purchase by selling equivalent points for a lower cost. But if they charge less for less valuable point, and I know it takes 2 Pop-points to equal 1 VWL point, I don't see it as undercutting the product. In fact, if I thought I could, on occassion, trade my 2 bedroom at VWL for a GV at POP, I might event think of it as an improvement.

[SuzanneSLO]

The "stupid rich" for whom money is no object don't buy a lot of timeshares.

I totally agree! If money is truly no object, why buy a timeshare? You just book where you want to stay and when you want to stay there. I know several people who travel exactly this way. They are all what I refer to as serial entrepeneurs: once one business is finished, they start another one. Only health issues will cause them to truly retire. Such a person would laugh at making plans 11 months out.

I could see a launch of premium tier of resorts such as BLT, GCV and Oahu. With a relatively fast sellout of GCV, it might make BLT look more attractive. I would still expect trading from other "non-premium" resorts, but possibly in a smaller window, say 11 home/7 premium/4 non-premium.

-- Suzanne

[NYDVC]

DVC did this with VWL - they refused to let non-owners trade in for over a year - believe me I tried - finally gave up and brought VWL.

DVC could easily do the same to BLT.

if you don't own - you can't trade to it.

they offer the entire thing to CRO.

their excuses only the units that have been sold are declared into the DVC market - those are the only ones that can be traded into at this time.

that say, CRO had a sale on VWL - so hoping for the same - might not be able to buy in - but hey a studio for less than a room at the CR. would definitely go that route.

this is very disappointing to me.:grrrrr:

vwl owners could book where they wanted - although most wanted VWL - which was the problem.

expecting the same thing at BLT.

hope really hope this time you are wrong, Tony. $180 a point - well might be able to afford 30 points - but not the 50 points was hoping for - well actually hoping for 100 points - but that is not going to happen.

To me, thats fair, you own, you get first crack for it. If I dont buy into the sandwich, I would not expect to get a ressie for at least a year or so. Actually buy that time maybe I will grab a resale?

[DVC-To-Be]

Europeans typically holiday for 21+ days, so airfare is less significant to them than us the 5-7 day vacationeers. Plus their strong currencies make purchase affordable, and their food costs here are so low (compared to their home costs) that they will save enough to more than cover their airfare increases



This is not necessarily true of the Brits, who are likely to be the biggest market for DVC outside the States. Typical vactions are 1 - 2 weeks, and airfares are a massive issue for us.

Even if we are better able to afford BLT due to strong currency, the pound is dropping against the dollar as we speak, so they had better get it on the market quick.

And in any event, we have no more desire to be ripped off than the average American. No BLT for me at these prices, even though I already converted some pounds into dollars when the exchange rate was at its peak ready to make a DVC purchase. I will buy resale and take my chances at 7 months along with everyone else.

[SevenSeasGirl]

I don't think that BLT will be priced quite as high as $180. It would be a shame if it was because it would turn one of the most exciting DVC projects into something that simply angers most people. It's also hard to believe that it would be priced at nearly 2x's the price I just paid for AKV.

I think it is likely that we could see the price at $140. And it makes sense that BLT owners could be given exclusive booking rights to BLT for the first year or so. If it was necessary to do at VWL, then it will certainly be necessary here, too.

Although it seems kinda crazy to think about a price that high, nostalgia pays a big role in this. Many people will pay that kind of money because of the emotional attachment they have to a resort that they first stayed at over 30 years ago.

As previously posted, it also seems likely that a greater % of units will be available to CRO. It just makes sense. I'm sure many non-DVC guests would be thrilled to have the option of a kitchen at a monorail resort.

[spiceycat]

As previously posted, it also seems likely that a greater % of units will be available to CRO. It just makes sense. I'm sure many non-DVC guests would be thrilled to have the option of a kitchen at a monorail resort.

if they have no problems renting it out with CRO - then really doubt that Disney will care if BLT is sold out fast. now DVC might - but Disney will profit anyway.

many families with money were upset that Disney does not have more suites at the MK for them.

this would also solve that problem.

most of the rich only brought at BWV when their GV was filled by DVC members for the week that THEY wanted.

if this happens at BLT can definitely see them buying again.

guess it is almost time to mark BLT off my list....:hammer: okay not yet - until Disney says this it is still a rumor.

DVC can make it be a DVC resort in name only - and Disney gets the suites that they want. They both win. just because it won't be available to non-BLT owners until 2012 if then - isn't their problem.

[tammymacb]

Wow! Go away for an overnight on HHI and I miss all of this!?

First of all, Welcome Back Tony!

Second of all, I had zero interest in BLT prior to these price points. I have less than zero now.

Third of all, I spend a good amount of time trapped in my room due to heavy rain yesterday and watched the DVC infomercial on the HHI channel over and over again... I'd say that it's almost misleading now.

Starstruck members gush rubbish about " It's so easy to vacation now, I just pick my dates and the size of my room and I'm all set! No worries!" ( Obviously taped prior to the new check in policy )
Also, the add states several times how DVC members are free to book *ANY* DVC property with their points * subject to avaiability*
Sounds like they're going to have to redo their infomercial soon.

[B'rer Karen]

Starstruck members gush rubbish about " It's so easy to vacation now, I just pick my dates and the size of my room and I'm all set! No worries!" ( Obviously taped prior to the new check in policy )
Also, the add states several times how DVC members are free to book *ANY* DVC property with their points * subject to avaiability*
Sounds like they're going to have to redo their infomercial soon.

Nah, why waste money with a redo. They do say it is subject to availability. BLT just won't be available every time you call.

That reminds me, we have a series of radio and TV commercials here (Raleigh/Durham) NC for a local car dealership. They pride themselves on not badgering customers and all of the ads feature this badger sales person, demonstrating why being badgered is a bad thing. Anyway one of my favorites goes something like this:

Lady interested in car: "What colors does it come in?"
Badger: "Oh we have a WIDE range of colors."
Lady: Great! Do you have Forest Green?"
Badger: "Not available"
Lady: "Mica?"
Badger: "Not available"
Lady: "Ocean?"
Badger: "Not available"
Lady (exhasperated): "What DO you have?"
Badger: "Oh we have a WIDE range of colors."

Now I'm going to think of this every time I call MS. :)

[bababear]

I must protest, my sickly hopping friend! :innocent: (and I hope that you feel better soon)

Other than the UK contingent, a poster from Belgium, and my recently arrived Doppelgänger, how many Disney crazed Europeans do we see here? Not many. The reality is that for many Europeans, Disney holds limited or no interest. Shocking, I know. Something like 6% of the visitors to DLRP are German, even though we live next door.

While I agree that there was a recent Euro surge, the surge is subsiding somewhat. Combine that with 19% sales tax, 45% income tax, gas at $10,50/gallon, food costs which rose more year to date than in America (chocolate has *gasp* almost doubled in price this year!) and there isn't much coin left to throw at a BLT purchase. A recent national newspaper front page headline outlined how many of us cannot afford to travel outside German borders anymore.

If anything, I think that you will see more Canadians buying/travelling. That may be the next market for DVC to consider (currently they really only focus on the Ontario market). Remember, those Canadians are sitting quietly on the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world, as well as vast amounts of other natural resources. They may one day soon be a powerhouse! (Again, my apologies to bababear and DSNY FN for revealing their secret plans to dominate the world)

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhh.Hushhhhhhhhhh
they;ll never know what hit them.

[carolina_yankee]

Fascinating thoughts.

Pure speculation on my part, but


I'm intrigued by the idea of a premium DVC where our points are equal to some fraction of their points. It's not a bad idea. Don't tell Disney.

Second, for those who have commented that the 'stupid rich' don't buy timeshares. True. But they're not buying a timeshare. They're buying Disney. If this turns into a quality product, a truly quality product as some have gushed about GCV, then the folks who vacation on the monorail like we would at a moderate, might buy in if they love Disney enough and the product is good enough. I'm betting on Disney's ability to sell itself in this way.

Third - put ourselves in the future BLT owner's shoes. What would be our perspective on Pop DVC owners taking 'our rooms' at SSR, OKW, AKV? If Disney is really considering a value DVC, I'd bet some sort of tiered system is going to come into play. And, that certainly doesn't close the door on future 'classic model' DVCs coming online, either.

Finally, remember - all we bought was an interest in a particular resort and the hopes, dreams, and scheming that comes with it. Disney doesn't care if they tick us off, as long as they can make money on a new market. They've already got our money. And, if we go away in a huff, others will certainly happily buy our discounted products.

[lenshanem]

Finally, remember - all we bought was an interest in a particular resort and the hopes, dreams, and scheming that comes with it. Disney doesn't care if they tick us off, as long as they can make money on a new market. They've already got our money. And, if we go away in a huff, others will certainly happily buy our discounted products.

True, but they sure won't be getting any referrals from us!

[tomandrobin]

Fascinating thoughts.

Pure speculation on my part, but

Second, for those who have commented that the 'stupid rich' don't buy timeshares. True. But they're not buying a timeshare. They're buying Disney.


I thought that what the Ritz was for that is being built out at Eagle Pines. :idontgeti

[JimP]

Let's assume that Disney wanted to get twice the revenue from BLT (vs AKV)... and for sake of argument... AKV is $100pp. Two possible pricing strategies would be:

1) Raise the BLT point value by 2X... and sell points at $100
2) Keep BLT point values the same as AKV... and sell points for $200

As someone who already bought my points... I love option 2. I might decided to stay at BLT sometime and be able to get in at a bargain compared to the people who bought BLT.

The problem is the DVC doesn't care about me (they have my money)... they care about the new purchaser. It seems that if they take option 1... they can sell BLT at their higher desired price... and the purchasers get 2X the points to use at other resorts at 7 months. It seems like an easier sell... so I am perplexed why they would go for the high price option.

Which led me consider something really scarry:

What stops them from charging 200X point values to stay at BLT... but sell the points for $1? They still get 2X the revenue compared to AKV... and anyone willing to buy can have a TON of points to use at the other 8 DVC properties... flooding the market at the 7 month window and totally devaluing our memberships.

/Jim

[Jeanninepl]

Fascinating thoughts.

Pure speculation on my part, but


I'm intrigued by the idea of a premium DVC where our points are equal to some fraction of their points. It's not a bad idea. Don't tell Disney.

Second, for those who have commented that the 'stupid rich' don't buy timeshares. True. But they're not buying a timeshare. They're buying Disney. If this turns into a quality product, a truly quality product as some have gushed about GCV, then the folks who vacation on the monorail like we would at a moderate, might buy in if they love Disney enough and the product is good enough. I'm betting on Disney's ability to sell itself in this way.

Third - put ourselves in the future BLT owner's shoes. What would be our perspective on Pop DVC owners taking 'our rooms' at SSR, OKW, AKV? If Disney is really considering a value DVC, I'd bet some sort of tiered system is going to come into play. And, that certainly doesn't close the door on future 'classic model' DVCs coming online, either.

Finally, remember - all we bought was an interest in a particular resort and the hopes, dreams, and scheming that comes with it. Disney doesn't care if they tick us off, as long as they can make money on a new market. They've already got our money. And, if we go away in a huff, others will certainly happily buy our discounted products.



I think a lot of what you speculate is true.

Disney knows what they have in BLT is a premium property so, given the fact that its Disney, I would be surprised if they did not price it as such. $180 might be too high of an estimate but I cannot imagine it being below $120-130.

[DVC-To-Be]

I think a lot of what you speculate is true.

Disney knows what they have in BLT is a premium property so, given the fact that its Disney, I would be surprised if they did not price it as such. $180 might be too high of an estimate but I cannot imagine it being below $120-130.

$120 was what we assumed when we were doing some pricing when we started looking at whether DVC would save us money over our biannual stays at the Poly. It looked attractive at that price, but not at $180, or anywhere close.

I guess the more important issue is the points chart and annual dues though. We were thinking 350 points may cover us, based on looking at something similar to the points for BWV. If that was the case, and dues were similar, we might be able to suck up the extra initial outlay, as the $ to £ exchange rate is good. However, if we also needed double the points, and annual dues were higher, well that is a much bigger financial commitment which would render ownership an unattractive proposition for us, at BLT at least.

[Blue&Gold]

It's a premium location... No one is sure yet if it is a premium property.

Disney already has a baseline of what the market will bear in terms of comparing the CR location to other resorts---and the cash price of rooms at the CR are in line with BC/BWI and other Deluxe resorts.

If CRO had been able to fill the CR and the Garden Wings at astronomical prices there would be no "BLT" to even speculate about.

I've been a CRV proponent and "fan" since they first put up the construction fence arount the North Garden Wing... But these prices are just nutty, without a significant deviation from the BWV/BCV/VWL point standard.

Lately, I've been thinking a lot about the potential downsides of the CR location, and there are several:

a) distance to other attractions/parks
b) noise associated with the fireworks (It's hard to get the kids to sleep in a BWV room with Illuminations a clean half-mile away---what'll it be like with Wishes and all the "Party" fireworks?)
c) blah theming
d) monorail to Epcot transfer through TTC hassle

Now, there are positives as well, and the positives may outweigh the negatives, but to assume it's all sunshine and lemonade doesn't give credit to the track record of the existing CR once other Deluxe resorts came on line.

[kapeman]

It's baffling to me how corporate America manages to survive from year to year, honestly.

HEAR, HEAR!

I wish I had a dollar for every time I said that!

[NYDVC]

Fascinating thoughts.

Pure speculation on my part, but


I'm intrigued by the idea of a premium DVC where our points are equal to some fraction of their points. It's not a bad idea. Don't tell Disney.

Second, for those who have commented that the 'stupid rich' don't buy timeshares. True. But they're not buying a timeshare. They're buying Disney. If this turns into a quality product, a truly quality product as some have gushed about GCV, then the folks who vacation on the monorail like we would at a moderate, might buy in if they love Disney enough and the product is good enough. I'm betting on Disney's ability to sell itself in this way.

Third - put ourselves in the future BLT owner's shoes. What would be our perspective on Pop DVC owners taking 'our rooms' at SSR, OKW, AKV? If Disney is really considering a value DVC, I'd bet some sort of tiered system is going to come into play. And, that certainly doesn't close the door on future 'classic model' DVCs coming online, either.

Finally, remember - all we bought was an interest in a particular resort and the hopes, dreams, and scheming that comes with it. Disney doesn't care if they tick us off, as long as they can make money on a new market. They've already got our money. And, if we go away in a huff, others will certainly happily buy our discounted products.


I can see your point Dirk, but I disagree with the final one. Or at least say it sounds rather strong. We are all a rather big base and word of mouth has a fair amout of power. We are still customers that come down regularly. They certainly will try not to alienate DVC as a whole.

[carolina_yankee]

I can see your point Dirk, but I disagree with the final one. Or at least say it sounds rather strong. We are all a rather big base and word of mouth has a fair amout of power. We are still customers that come down regularly. They certainly will try not to alienate DVC as a whole.

Yeah, that was stronger than I meant. Basically, I'm trying to say that Disney is going to go after new markets and enhance the DVC program in ways that make sense to them. If they put BLT out of our range because of price, points, or limited non-owner bookings, they aren't taking anything away from what we already have, but it would still tick us off because we all thought about how neat it would be to stay or own there.

I thought that what the Ritz was for that is being built out at Eagle Pines. :idontgeti

Isn't the Ritz a different kinds of fractional? Very high-end limited ownership? In my speculative scenario, I would see BLT is above the current DVC offerings and below the Ritz. Plus, the Ritz could be for those who value the Ritz brand as much or more than the Disney brand.

Dirk

[greenban]

Yeah, that was stronger than I meant. Basically, I'm trying to say that Disney is going to go after new markets and enhance the DVC program in ways that make sense to them. If they put BLT out of our range because of price, points, or limited non-owner bookings, they aren't taking anything away from what we already have, but it would still tick us off because we all thought about how neat it would be to stay or own there.



Isn't the Ritz a different kinds of fractional? Very high-end limited ownership? In my speculative scenario, I would see BLT is above the current DVC offerings and below the Ritz. Plus, the Ritz could be for those who value the Ritz brand as much or more than the Disney brand.

Dirk

While you may enjoy putting on the Ritz, I like Fig Newtons!

(Definately Fever-Speak!)

-Tony

[carolina_yankee]

While you may enjoy putting on the Ritz, I like Fig Newtons!

(Definately Fever-Speak!)

-Tony

I'm sorry, instead of crackers, I keep seeing Gene Wilder and Peter Boyle. Maybe your fever is catching. Ooops, now I hear Peggy Lee!

Dirk

[greenban]

I'm sorry, instead of crackers, I keep seeing Gene Wilder and Peter Boyle. Maybe your fever is catching. Ooops, now I hear Peggy Lee!

Dirk

Puttin' on the Ritz
http://www.dvdbeaver.com/FILM/DVDCompare8/youngfrankenstein/7.jpg

Peggy Lee from Lady and the Tramp?
http://www.laughingplace.com/files/columns/Toon20020125/peg2.JPG

or perhaps another song?

Oompa Loompa Doopity Do.......
http://www.1halloween.net/images/cosoompa.jpg

-Tony

[NYDVC]

you know If I lived near you I would want a frog as my GP. I bet you have a great bedside manner. :)

[greenban]

you know If I lived near you I would want a frog as my GP. I bet you have a great bedside manner. :)

Thank you!

Yes, my patients love me, and I treat them until.....well until they croak!

(rim shot!)

-Tony

[NYDVC]

Thank you!

Yes, my patients love me, and I treat them until.....well until they croak!

(rim shot!)

-Tony

:ROTFL::lmbo::ROTFL::lmbo:

[erikthewise]

It's a premium location... No one is sure yet if it is a premium property.

Disney already has a baseline of what the market will bear in terms of comparing the CR location to other resorts---and the cash price of rooms at the CR are in line with BC/BWI and other Deluxe resorts.

If CRO had been able to fill the CR and the Garden Wings at astronomical prices there would be no "BLT" to even speculate about.

I've been a CRV proponent and "fan" since they first put up the construction fence arount the North Garden Wing... But these prices are just nutty, without a significant deviation from the BWV/BCV/VWL point standard.

Lately, I've been thinking a lot about the potential downsides of the CR location, and there are several:

a) distance to other attractions/parks
b) noise associated with the fireworks (It's hard to get the kids to sleep in a BWV room with Illuminations a clean half-mile away---what'll it be like with Wishes and all the "Party" fireworks?)
c) blah theming
d) monorail to Epcot transfer through TTC hassle

Now, there are positives as well, and the positives may outweigh the negatives, but to assume it's all sunshine and lemonade doesn't give credit to the track record of the existing CR once other Deluxe resorts came on line.

A lot of good points here. As usual I'll pick at some minor ones.
(b) BLT will be just as far from Wishes as BWV is from Illuminations. As measured by Google Earth, Boardwalk Lobby to the inferno barge is almost exactly 0.5 miles. Of course BWV is somewhat more. From the entrance to the old North Wing to Cinderella's castle, 0.52 miles. And of course the fireworks are farther back.
(c) Disney has been working hard at spiffing up the interior of Contemporary, both rooms and public areas. By the time BLT opens, it will be considerably improved. Of course not much they can do about the exterior, and it still won't compare with Wilderness Lodge or Polynesian for theming.
(d) If they do go the DVC Premium route, they may well offer bus service to Epcot. Heck, for $180-$200 per point, they should offer limos!

BTW, if they do go the high-price route, e.g. $180/pt, I think it's unlikely we will able to use our points there at all, unless it's 2-1 deal like the dining plan at signature restaurants.

God, I hope they are not reading this thread! We've given too many ideas, way too many... :D

[JimP]

BTW, if they do go the high-price route, e.g. $180/pt, I think it's unlikely we will able to use our points there at all,

Would that mean that they would not be able to consume DVC inventory at the other resorts?

Also... still waiting for a response to my previous post. Are we exposed to extreme devaluation our our property if DVC was to offer "high point booking requirements at low cost per point" options for future resorts?

/Jim

[Colorado Belle]

YES WE HAVE GIVEN THEM TOO MANY IDEAS.
Can we please all edit our posts and remove the ideas from public view?????

Here's a thought: I live in an upscale community where sq ft prices are in the $400 range. The owner two lots below mine was supposed to start building this summer. He lives in Keystone, another high end resort area and I am assuming he is 'wealthy enough'. But he recently said he couldn't build because he couldn't get financing. My point is that even (more so) the wealthy often finance their real estate ventures, and if financing is tight, then there is less cash even for those who are wealthy on paper.

I also agree with those who say that 'timeshare' isn't something that one often associates with the more affluent end of society (unless they are the developers of a timeshare project). I think that most of the consumers of deluxe suites at WDW are not people interested in owning a piece of the mouse...I think that when they plan a vacation, if it's a Disney vacation, that they call their TA and say book the best. I love my DVC BUT it is not delux and it doesn't have the amenities of even a 4 star hotel.

When Disney admits that DVC sales are down and when it is obvious that the country is in a recession or worse, it makes no (business) sense to raise prices for a product who's costs are probably similar to building costs of AKV. Especially in consideration that AKV hasn't sold out. I think Disney will figure this out, even if Jim Lewis doesn't. (Hey, I'm right at least half the time!:hahahaha:)

[CDog]

Let's assume that Disney wanted to get twice the revenue from BLT (vs AKV)... and for sake of argument... AKV is $100pp. Two possible pricing strategies would be:

1) Raise the BLT point value by 2X... and sell points at $100
2) Keep BLT point values the same as AKV... and sell points for $200

As someone who already bought my points... I love option 2. I might decided to stay at BLT sometime and be able to get in at a bargain compared to the people who bought BLT.

The problem is the DVC doesn't care about me (they have my money)... they care about the new purchaser. It seems that if they take option 1... they can sell BLT at their higher desired price... and the purchasers get 2X the points to use at other resorts at 7 months. It seems like an easier sell... so I am perplexed why they would go for the high price option.

Which led me consider something really scarry:

What stops them from charging 200X point values to stay at BLT... but sell the points for $1? They still get 2X the revenue compared to AKV... and anyone willing to buy can have a TON of points to use at the other 8 DVC properties... flooding the market at the 7 month window and totally devaluing our memberships.

/Jim

That is a scarry thought, but what would happen if those buyers would trade out in the II market? If they pay $1 a point and buy 1000 points for $1000, they could go anywhere to the other 500 locations wordwide real cheap...right?

[Blue&Gold]

A lot of good points here. As usual I'll pick at some minor ones.
(b) BLT will be just as far from Wishes as BWV is from Illuminations. As measured by Google Earth, Boardwalk Lobby to the inferno barge is almost exactly 0.5 miles. Of course BWV is somewhat more. From the entrance to the old North Wing to Cinderella's castle, 0.52 miles. And of course the fireworks are farther back.
(c) Disney has been working hard at spiffing up the interior of Contemporary, both rooms and public areas. By the time BLT opens, it will be considerably improved. Of course not much they can do about the exterior, and it still won't compare with Wilderness Lodge or Polynesian for theming.
(d) If they do go the DVC Premium route, they may well offer bus service to Epcot. Heck, for $180-$200 per point, they should offer limos!

BTW, if they do go the high-price route, e.g. $180/pt, I think it's unlikely we will able to use our points there at all, unless it's 2-1 deal like the dining plan at signature restaurants.

God, I hope they are not reading this thread! We've given too many ideas, way too many... :D

Ah-ha! I'll pick back... A little.

b) We've attended both P&P Party and MNSSHP in recent years, and one of the features of those fireworks were detonations from all around the perimeter of MK... Which would place some of them significantly closer to the Sandwich Tower. Not dangerously so, but perhaps loudly so!

No quibbling with your other points.

[Blue&Gold]

Also... still waiting for a response to my previous post. Are we exposed to extreme devaluation our our property if DVC was to offer "high point booking requirements at low cost per point" options for future resorts?

/Jim

Jim---I really don't see that as being possible because of the ultimate fact that when a "point" from any resort enters into exchanges for all the other options (DL, Cruise) they are essentially equal, no matter their home resort.

Then again, my logic trail may be a bit foggy from reading this thread. :smoke2:

[lenshanem]

The night before NYE they set off the practice run. We were at VWL and the perimeter fireworks set off car alarms in the parking lot!

[carolina_yankee]

I've been corrected by world travelers who know enough to catch these slip-ups instantly.

The Rtiz is in Paris only. The Ritz-Carlton is the hotel chain (which I think also has fractionals). The Four Seasons is doing the fractional at Eagle Pines.

So, in Madeline Khan voice: "Ahh, sweet mystery of life . . ."

Dirk

[CarolA]

Well it may not do any good,