NEWS/RUMOR: More DEEP CROAKER info re: BLT and THV! [Archive] - The DVC Boards at MouseOwners.com - the place to talk DVC and Walt Disney World

greenban

06-27-2008, 07:12 PM

Hopping along with Deep Croaker:

Just off the internet with the one, the only DEEP CROAKER

DC left his lillypad just long enough to give some (minor) updates.

1) GBLAST123 is correct BLT sales have been pushed back. Training has not yet occured as the very big wigs are in 'urgent steering meetings' CM's have been told, vacations now, none after Mid July.

2) CMs discount for DVC purchases expire completely June 30, 2008. No new employee discount has been announced, this is a first.

3) DEEP CROAKER believs sales will be delayed 3-6 weeks, look for BLT sales to begin by August 15.

4) DC Look for a *MINIMUM* $10.00 per point raise (like they did with BCV) for BLT, I expect to see points at $120-$125 for BLT.

5) Leisure bookings are down at all WDW resorts, but convention travel is up. Even with that, DC expects BLT to be DVC only with the other Garden Wing becoming another tower in the near future. He can't guess if it will be DVC, mixed use or Convention Suites only.

6) The original Maximum Point Allowcation Chart has been deemed too generous..... Watch for a new higher chart to post *BEFORE* DVC BLT sales are announced. It seemed too good to be true......

7) No word on THV, the Hotels Unit is vigorously fighting for control of these units....

8) Eight new sales (MS-GUIDES) have been hired and are finalizing training (3-4) weeks. This is a larger than normal pre-sales hiring, and several are being assigned to phone sales (has not occurred before). DC reads 'this' as something major comming down the sales avenue in next 3-6 weeks..... BLT anyone?

So the guessing and waiting continues.

Ribbit-Out!

-Tony

tomandrobin

06-27-2008, 08:16 PM

Thanks for the update Tony!

administrator

06-27-2008, 08:27 PM

Interesting! And thanks for sharing!! Any mention of possible incentives?

(Btw, Tony, I also posted this info to the news/info section.)

JimP

06-27-2008, 08:29 PM

5) Leisure bookings are down at all WDW resorts, but convention travel is up. Even with that, DC expects BLT to be DVC only with the other Garden Wing becoming another tower in the near future. He can't guess if it will be DVC, mixed use or Convention Suites only.
I guess that means the contempory hotel is a 4 slice toaster.

/Jim

greenban

06-27-2008, 08:38 PM

Interesting! And thanks for sharing!! Any mention of possible incentives?

(Btw, Tony, I also posted this info to the news/info section.)

Hi Kim:

Thanks for the quick posting.

DC expects no incentives other than an AKV style founders something or another. He also believes the last minute meetings are twofold......

1) a recreation of the points chart (higher per night)

2) a last ditch effort by conventions to get a piece of this tower for their use (esp. with convention bookings up).....

:reporter:DC:reporter: has dinner and :beer: drinks :beer:scheduled with two VPs (one WDW, one DVD) later this week, has promised me a call the very next :drool:morning.:drool:

-Tony

ETA: OOPS forgot to add into the original post.

The 11+7 booking changes have been an umitigated disaster. This was planned to save DVC money, by reducing MS' reservation costs, nothing else. Since they get 12% no matter what, it was *NOT* done for member's benefit, just to save them some coin. However, Managent types who don't know the system (i.e. weren't MS-Guides in the past, or DVC Owners) came up with this change, not realizing the effects and abuse potential. Senior Management (read as VP level), who started as a MS-Guide was able to explain what some of the Owners saw as problematic.

They are now tallying and reading every complaint wheither by email, snail mail, phone, or to a MS-Advisor.

If enough people complain, it will be reversed.

However, I remain in favor of the change as it unfairly benefits me!

Ronald Duck

06-27-2008, 08:50 PM

6) The original Maximum Point Allocation Chart has been deemed too generous..... Watch for a new higher chart to post *BEFORE* DVC BLT sales are announced. It seemed too good to be true......

I guess that one month of heavy training on this board and the DVC boards at DIS hasn't made me a DVC expert yet...what, exactly, is the Chart to which you refer:magnify:??? Thanks.

greenban

06-27-2008, 08:58 PM

I guess that one month of heavy training on this board and the DVC boards at DIS hasn't made me a DVC expert yet...what, exactly, is the Chart to which you refer:magnify:??? Thanks...

There is a filing with either FL or Orange County where the DVC had to list the maximum points charged for BLT rooms. They could charge less for some, more for other nights, but the maximum could not be exceeded. This chart was favorable to AKVs point structure. However, then can modify it and change it up and until sales start (are approved). It is expected to change upward, way upward. I see if I can find the link to the administrator's post of said document.

-Tony

ETA Linkee Thingee ===> http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13511&highlight=maximum+point+reallocation

AKV707

06-27-2008, 08:58 PM

Thanks for the report Tony.

Interesting.

rnawiz

06-27-2008, 09:02 PM

Thanks Tony!

XPhillip

06-27-2008, 09:03 PM

Thanks for the update, Tony.

Sorry it did not make the July 1st time line, but August 15th will probably be better for me anyway.

Hopefully be in line with you when it happens!

administrator

06-27-2008, 09:12 PM

I guess that one month of heavy training on this board and the DVC boards at DIS hasn't made me a DVC expert yet...what, exactly, is the Chart to which you refer:magnify:??? Thanks...

In your multi-site POS, near th back, there is a MRC. It basically gives the points values (for each resort, with each size accommodation) with which a member will always be eligible to reserve at least one vacation at his/her home resort. It's basically almost a worst-case scenario.

For example, for OKW, the points required for a studio stay of one night would be 15. Thus, while it requires a total of 80 points to stay in an OKW studio for one week in Adventure season (8 ppn Sun-Thurs, and 20 ppn Fri and Sat), it could eventually cost a total of 105 points per week (15 ppn x 7 nights).

Of course, these changes would have to take place over a very long period of time. DVC is restricted in terms of how they can change the points charts.

Ronald Duck

06-27-2008, 09:29 PM

Gotcha. Not quite as scary as my worst fears had conjured up...

cheapmom

06-27-2008, 09:34 PM

Now I am really sad- if it is $120 pp and with the highest point chart of any dvc to date- I think that is out of reach for me. I will be in wdw late Aug so at least I can hope to enjoy touring the models rooms.

rnawiz

06-27-2008, 09:54 PM

Just a thought- "announcement" and "sales" don't need to be on the same date.
If sales are to start mid July, an announcement could be sooner, right?
please?

mountainjourno

06-27-2008, 09:55 PM

Thanks for the info, Greenban!

If it is $120 per night, and if the points per night to stay are more, then the good news is that I won't need to buy there at all...I shouldn't have any problems getting in at 7 months!

Good. I need to save some money for the California one anyway...

zulaya

06-27-2008, 10:45 PM

Tony, thanks for the news! Love your updates from DC.

Not surprised about the reasoning behind the booking policy change...

Waiting to hear what DC has to say after his meetings!

harmrose22

06-27-2008, 11:34 PM

Thanks for the update Tony!

spiceycat

06-27-2008, 11:57 PM

okay if CR wins and gets part of the BLT - how much can DVC sell? half or more?

would hope we get the entire building. but worst case we won't.

so they will definitely start selling BLT before the end of this summer - this is a fact or a rumor?

when can members see the models at SSR - that was done several years ago - or is that being changed too?

oh such great news!!!

love it!

Frog you are the BEST!!!:woohoodan

icouldlivethere

06-28-2008, 12:48 AM

I was hoping to do a small add on here but with the increased cost per point along with the proposed increase in the number of points needed to stay each night I'm afraid I may have to pass on this one.

Looking forward to more DC updates. I hope DC can pass along the points table soon.:fingerscr

lenshanem

06-28-2008, 01:07 AM

Thanks Tony.

I dunno... $125, no incentive and higher point nights?!? We might have to wait and see if an incentive comes out later down the road after the intital buying frenzy. My name on a rug isn't that important. Could be that is too high for alot of people right now and despite the excitement some might back off on buying.

I personally am very upset about the new booking policy. Hoping enough people will complain to change it back. It really doesn't make a difference to those who booked 11/7 months out in one call on the check out date or arrival date during no peak times. I thought this was simply to reduce calls to MS. I only book day by day for our NYE trip, but because we arrive later we are at a huge disadvantage now.

Plus, with this new booking policy is having the 11 month booking advantage really worth it for us if I planned to use it during holiday times? Now I might not even get it...

broganmc

06-28-2008, 01:54 AM

The 11+7 booking changes have been an umitigated disaster. This was planned to save DVC money, by reducing MS' reservation costs, nothing else. Since they get 12% no matter what, it was *NOT* done for member's benefit, just to save them some coin. However, Managent types who don't know the system (i.e. weren't MS-Guides in the past, or DVC Owners) came up with this change, not realizing the effects and abuse potential. Senior Management (read as VP level), who started as a MS-Guide was able to explain what some of the Owners saw as problematic.

They are now tallying and reading every complaint wheither by email, snail mail, phone, or to a MS-Advisor.

If enough people complain, it will be reversed.

However, I remain in favor of the change as it unfairly benefits me!

I thought that. It seems like an idea from someone who did not understand the nightly reservation system or peak travel competition. FWIW I added to the e-mail feedback with my HA room concerns.

For the most part I have been satisfied with the program and I don't get truly upset until something really affects me. But considering the potential perils of this system I am rethinking my BLT purchase a bit more. My intention has always been to use it as a small contract 3 night stay. But given the location of the resort I'm expecting HA room demand to be highest there.

I sure wish we knew how this booking system was going to affect the holiday reservations before BLT went on sale.

lenshanem

06-28-2008, 02:32 AM

I sure wish we knew how this booking system was going to affect the holiday reservations before BLT went on sale.

I'm with ya.

cincinmouse

06-28-2008, 03:54 AM

Some recent pictures have been posted over at WDWmagic.com They were taken from the lake view. I am not sure if it is the angle the pictures were taken but the interior side facing the new pool does not seem to match the outside shape exactly. Which would provide for better view of the lake instead of looking at the opposite side of the hotel that you are on.

http://www.wdwmagic.com/resorts_contemporarydvc.htm

dsruton

06-28-2008, 04:20 AM

Thanks GB and thank DC the next time you talk to him(?).:bouncingp

suecait

06-28-2008, 05:33 AM

Thanks Tony!

lenshanem

06-28-2008, 01:29 PM

Blue&Gold

06-28-2008, 03:39 PM

Another thing I wonder about is if they do go ahead and build another tower are you gonna be able to book specific buildings? Obviously, the new one is the closer walk to the MK and probably with better MK views...

If this is in the plans do they have to put this in the POS? Can they later go back and add that to the point chart? Like AKV where you can book a certain building???

If they do build the second building it wouldn't make it quite as valuable, ya know? Estimating, with two towers where would that put BLT in the WDW DVC size line up?

Thanks!

I think the question of the 2nd tower hinges more on whether the inventory there would be DVC or "CRO."

They can always build a second building and at it to the development. See SSR buildings 13-18 "Phase III" for example.

They can also always decide to not have BLT be a DVC at all. Until points are sold to the general public and the Condo Association formed, that big pile of steel and concrete is an asset owned by The Walt Disney Company and can be shifted around to different corporate divisions as they please (DVC or the hotel group). Heck, they could use it to house their interns. Unlikely, but certainly possible.

jbrowna

06-28-2008, 05:02 PM

I believe the powers-that-be had better tread carefully with those issues greenban talked about. Raise the cost-per-point too much -- especially if you make BLT more expensive than other DVC resorts -- and there comes a point when people will simply buy less expensive points at a different resort (or use the points they already have) and take their chances on the 7 month window. With the nervousness that many folks are feeling about the economy, that tipping point might just be lower than they expect. :scary:

A similar dynamic, I think, applies to the points-per-night. If, as greenban tells us he's hearing from DC, they are contemplating revising the points chart "way up," they may end up simply scaring people off. And at this point people are more easily scared. :holymoly: I'm not about to spend double the points to stay at BLT as opposed to VWL or OKW. Perhaps a few points "premium", but not as many as he implies they are considering. And that seems to be the consensus that's emerging among the posters here.

Hey frog, better tell DC to let the DVC honchos know they're on a razor's edge here!

Blue&Gold

06-28-2008, 06:01 PM

Hey frog, better tell DC to let the DVC honchos know they're on a razor's edge here!

Problem here is that my Guide told me that he has a list as long as his arm of people who have told him they want to by CRV "no matter the point cost" and that sales mangement knows it.

I have been a CRV fan since they first put the darn fence up around the old North Wing... But I am beginning to believe the smart play here is to pick up either more AKV at the incentive price, or test the bottom of the ROFR floor at one of the older resorts, particularly BCV. We love the Epcot Resort Area and it would be cheaper by a few $ per point to add to our BWV holdings, but I think one impact of the new booking rules will be to complicate 7 month swaps---so I'm thinking of getting smaller point blocks at more resorts to bank/borrow our way to happiness.

One specific hesitation about CRV, irrespective of cost, is the fact that while CRV will be REALLY close to MK, it's going to be far from just about everything else on WDW... There are some attractive VWL contracts out there, but never having stayed there I don't know if we want to plunge in... I tried to get a 7 month ressie for this coming October and the only available 2BRs were at OKW and SSR. We're staying at OKW, having stayed there before and liked it.

Ransom

06-28-2008, 07:39 PM

I believe the powers-that-be had better tread carefully with those issues greenban talked about. Raise the cost-per-point too much -- especially if you make BLT more expensive than other DVC resorts -- and there comes a point when people will simply buy less expensive points at a different resort (or use the points they already have) and take their chances on the 7 month window. With the nervousness that many folks are feeling about the economy, that tipping point might just be lower than they expect. :scary:

That's exactly how we ended up evaluating it. Sure, it'd be nice to stay regularly at a monorail resort, but the opportunity cost got to be too high. We decided we'd rather add on at one of the older resorts (once we run out of banked points, which our resale contract had a good amount of). We can always pay cash to stay at one of the monorail resorts if we ever get a serious hankering for it.

HauntedPirate

06-28-2008, 07:53 PM

JimP

06-28-2008, 08:00 PM

That's exactly how we ended up evaluating it. Sure, it'd be nice to stay regularly at a monorail resort, but the opportunity cost got to be too high. We decided we'd rather add on at one of the older resorts (once we run out of banked points, which our resale contract had a good amount of). We can always pay cash to stay at one of the monorail resorts if we ever get a serious hankering for it.

I am 100% sure that for our style of vacationing at WDW... the Epcot resorts are more desirable (for us) than a monorail resort (we have done both several times). Still... once the DVC marketing machine starts promoting the monorail resorts (BLT, PRV, GFV) they will cement a huge "marketing need" which members will be compelled to fulfill.

/Jim

kiapgh23e

06-28-2008, 08:42 PM

kiapgh23e

06-28-2008, 08:46 PM

did i do something wrong in quoting? How come the "quote" is not in an enclosed box like usual? Dam newbies.

:dancingba

greenban

06-28-2008, 08:54 PM

did i do something wrong in quoting? How come the "quote" is not in an enclosed box like usual? Dam newbies.

:dancingba

Heck, you ain't now newbie, you done already did done passed ROFR.

Your a DANG STUDIO now!

Sometimes the or brackets get lost......

-Tony

carolina_yankee

06-28-2008, 11:25 PM

did i do something wrong in quoting? How come the "quote" is not in an enclosed box like usual? Dam newbies.

:dancingba
I fixed it for you. The QUOTE and /QUOTE tags have to be in upper case between brackets. [ ]

cheapmom

06-28-2008, 11:30 PM

I'm with many others - a slight points premium is almost expected at The Tower. But putting a significant premium is going to scare away a lot of people and drive them into older resorts and, like mentioned above, test the lower limits of ROFR. I know that is the route we'll consider if BLT points are $125/pt and much higher per-night point costs.

I am the perfect example- I have been saving like crazy, working extra hours and ebaying and I have saved about $8500 so far. My plan is just to stash away as much as I can until sales begin- however if it is $125 per point and the rooms are costly pointswise I will probably not be able to justify the purchase and will hit the resale market with my $9 or $10K.

points I could buy with $8500
I could buy
BLT (@$125) - 68
SSR - 110
OKW- 115
BWV - 100
VWL - 100

There is still a strong emotional pull for me to own there but $125 is pretty far past my walk-away price.

jbrowna

06-29-2008, 12:21 AM

It seems to me that, if the powers-that-be had any sense, they'd err on the side of raising the cost-per-point, but leaving the points-per-night in line with the existing resorts. The reason that makes sense to me is that, should they find they've raised the price too much, they can always unveil some incentives or discounts to spur sales. But once the point chart for the resort is set, and written into the sales documents, they're going to be stuck. The way timeshare laws are, I don't believe you can give any discounts on the number of points per room.

Of course, that might be part of their evil plan: make the points required so high that you drive the majority of DVCers out, and then you can rent the rooms for cash. That way you can claim that the whole resort is DVC, but in practical terms it's mixed use. I bet the hotels division would like that: they don't have to maintain the building, but they get to rent most of it out!

Now where did I put my tinfoil hat? :Paranoid:

Blue&Gold

06-29-2008, 12:56 AM

Of course, that might be part of their evil plan: make the points required so high that you drive the majority of DVCers out, and then you can rent the rooms for cash. That way you can claim that the whole resort is DVC, but in practical terms it's mixed use. I bet the hotels division would like that: they don't have to maintain the building, but they get to rent most of it out!

Evil plan or just plan? I think I've read here and elsewhere that the Contemporary has essentially evolved into a "convention" hotel (though that might have been before the room refurb). Big Disney could easily declare a section of the building into the Condo association, test the sales limits of the truly committed (read: insanely wealthy or just insane) and retain the balance for DVC to "sell" to CRO for deluxe "family suites" (remember the recent name change for DVC properties on the "CRO" web-site). If DVC sales go well, they can swing more inventory to the sales bin as long as there are cows to be milked. Meanwhile, AKV will fly off the shelves because it will look like a bargain in comparison to CRV, California, and Hawaii.

Ransom

06-29-2008, 01:13 AM

Still... once the DVC marketing machine starts promoting the monorail resorts (BLT, PRV, GFV) they will cement a huge "marketing need" which members will be compelled to fulfill.

/Jim

I must be slow today; I'm not sure where you're going with that. "[M]embers will be compelled" in what way? In the sense of the value of the non-Monorail resorts' value dropping?

JimP

06-29-2008, 01:24 AM

I must be slow today; I'm not sure where you're going with that. "[M]embers will be compelled" in what way? In the sense of the value of the non-Monorail resorts' value dropping?

No... just pointing out that Disney is incredibly good at marketing. I think they will be extremely effective in creating a "need to be on the monorail". You can substitute "overpowering desire" for "need" if you wish. As a result of this marketing... even people who generally wouldn't care that much about the CH.. will really feel the urge to buy into BLT. I think that will be even stronger when they announce Poly and/or GF DVCs. I think that members will be "compelled" to buy!

It makes sense to me about the rumors of price increases for BLT... and that DVC will get the higher prices because of their ability to market the benefits of the monorail.

/Jim

broganmc

06-29-2008, 01:28 AM

administrator

06-29-2008, 01:34 AM

Meanwhile, AKV will fly off the shelves because it will look like a bargain in comparison to CRV, California, and Hawaii.

Especially when you take into account the costs (and growing limited availability) of tickets to Hawaii. Honestly, I was surprised when DVC actually announced a VP for HI last week: unless they create their own discount airline, given the economy's downturn, HI is going to be more and more of a stretch for people.

Ransom

06-29-2008, 02:56 AM

No... just pointing out that Disney is incredibly good at marketing. I think they will be extremely effective in creating a "need to be on the monorail". You can substitute "overpowering desire" for "need" if you wish. As a result of this marketing... even people who generally wouldn't care that much about the CH.. will really feel the urge to buy into BLT. I think that will be even stronger when they announce Poly and/or GF DVCs. I think that members will be "compelled" to buy!

Ah! Got it. You're right, no matter the state of the economy, a lot of members will do at least a small add-on -- enough for a reasonable split stay every three years, minimum, I'd guess.

It makes sense to me about the rumors of price increases for BLT... and that DVC will get the higher prices because of their ability to market the benefits of the monorail.

/Jim

Which, really, aren't that great. Well, not with our touring style, anyway. Going for two weeks makes us in much less of a hurry, so taking the boat to/from the VWL and the bus to Epcot is fine for us. :)

But you're right...they'll be able to market the heck out of it. "The very first monorail DVC resort! Quantities are limited, so buy today!" :rolleyes:

StotheK

06-29-2008, 03:04 AM

Hopping along with Deep Croaker:

4) DC Look for a *MINIMUM* $10.00 per point raise (like they did with BCV) for BLT, I expect to see points at $120-$125 for BLT.

6) The original Maximum Point Allowcation Chart has been deemed too generous..... Watch for a new higher chart to post *BEFORE* DVC BLT sales are announced. It seemed too good to be true......

-Tony

With the combination of points 4 and 6, I can just imagine the moaning on certain other boards about how the riff raff who own at the less expensive resorts skew availability after the 7 month window opens.

keys2kingdom1

06-29-2008, 05:42 AM

I don't know why I bother going to the DIS anymore, it's obvious all the GOOD info is right here on MO.

Thanks Tony!

And DC!

Leftcoaster

06-29-2008, 06:57 AM

Especially when you take into account the costs (and growing limited availability) of tickets to Hawaii. Honestly, I was surprised when DVC actually announced a VP for HI last week: unless they create their own discount airline, given the economy's downturn, HI is going to be more and more of a stretch for people.

Disney will do a hard push in California for this. "Buy Hawaii and you can just trade in to California." The sales pitch in California was ALL about the WONDERFUL trades you can do. Never mind it generally does not make sense to use your points for that but, let's not mention that. ;)

Lisa

06-29-2008, 01:07 PM

I don't know why I bother going to the DIS anymore, it's obvious all the GOOD info is right here on MO.

Thanks Tony!

And DC!

:iagree: :rockband:

greenban

06-29-2008, 02:31 PM

I fixed it for you. The QUOTE and /QUOTE tags have to be in upper case between brackets. [ ]

Not to disagree with my good buddy Dirk, but Quote and /quote can be in UPPER CASE, lower case or MiXeD cAsE.....

However Reversed Case Does Not Work and

Just saying........

;)

-Tony

greenban

06-29-2008, 02:39 PM

Thanks for the kind words.

I do expect $120+ for the BLT, but that is me speaking not DC. DC expects $114.00pp.

Also I expect the Points to be closer to SSR & BCV than AKV, but agree with the most excellent post of jbrowna that DVD would be smarter to raise $pp more than ppn (points per night), for the reasons stated.

I have also started the following thread, that I invite all to participate in:

For the sake of accuracy and the persuit of knowledge I have created this thread: http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?p=160943#post160943

Here we will track the number of ressies sucessfully made in one call, the need for WLing, sucess at 11 months, etc. Please if you make a ressie under the new system, please take the time to post to our database!

Many TIAs

-Tony

Starr W.

06-29-2008, 03:01 PM

I don't know why I bother going to the DIS anymore, it's obvious all the GOOD info is right here on MO.

Thanks Tony!

And DC!

Not go to the DIS? And miss those drama threads about "Snippy Guides" :hahahaha:

Blue&Gold

06-29-2008, 03:03 PM

I do expect $120+ for the BLT, but that is me speaking not DC. DC expects $114.00pp.

Without a comprehensive point chart, this is all rampant speculation of the worst kind (as opposed to rampant speculation of the best kind, which I engage in on a daily basis here)!

Cost per point is only one variable in the equation...

greenban

06-29-2008, 03:05 PM

Without a comprehensive point chart, this is all rampant speculation of the worst kind (as opposed to rampant speculation of the best kind, which I engage in on a daily basis here)!

Cost per point is only one variable in the equation...

Well <blushing> I am a rampant frog :jawdroppi

-Tony

carolina_yankee

06-29-2008, 03:10 PM

Not to disagree with my good buddy Dirk, but Quote and /quote can be in UPPER CASE, lower case or MiXeD cAsE.....

However Reversed Case Does Not Work and

Just saying........

;)

-Tony

Hmm, I guess you're right. For the post in question, they were missing the [q on the first [quote]

Dirk

Carol

06-29-2008, 03:23 PM

......

Also I expect the Points to be closer to SSR & BCV than AKV, but agree with the most excellent post of jbrowna that DVD would be smarter to raise $pp more than ppn (points per night), for the reasons stated

........

-TonyIf you are correct, then I don't see what the big deal is or why some posters seem to be upset about it. Surely no one expected the point charts to be less than BCV, VWL or PV at BWV?

If I were doing the BLT point chart, I would have 2 or maybe 3 booking categories (based on view) that all cost the same number of points as VWL, BCV & PV at BWV or maybe one or 2 per night more. Easier to manage than all the booking categories at AKV and I think home resort owners should have at least one advantage besides the 11 month booking window.

Disclosure: I won't be buying at BLT. I don't expect to ever stay there. I own BWV and EPCOT is my favorite park. We seldom go to the MK more than once per trip. I am hoping BLT takes some of the "heat" off BWV reservations.

mouseman

06-29-2008, 08:38 PM

If you are correct, then I don't see what the big deal is or why some posters seem to be upset about it. Surely no one expected the point charts to be less than BCV, VWL or PV at BWV?

If I were doing the BLT point chart, I would have 2 or maybe 3 booking categories (based on view) that all cost the same number of points as VWL, BCV & PV at BWV or maybe one or 2 per night more. Easier to manage than all the booking categories at AKV and I think home resort owners should have at least one advantage besides the 11 month booking window.

Disclosure: I won't be buying at BLT. I don't expect to ever stay there. I own BWV and EPCOT is my favorite park. We seldom go to the MK more than once per trip. I am hoping BLT takes some of the "heat" off BWV reservations.

yes, especially for us SSR owners!:laughing:

KyleRayner

06-30-2008, 04:54 AM

:worship:

Thanks as always for the updates!

hilaw

06-30-2008, 07:32 AM

Around $120 a point for Bacon Lettuce & Tomato (kidding) BLT?
At this approximate price, resales will then be holding their value :Pssst: or maybe even moving up once the highest DVC prices are announced.

MouseMagic

06-30-2008, 06:53 PM

StotheK

06-30-2008, 06:59 PM

I'm dreading when the price is official. I've been dreaming that my September trip might convince the spouse to buy into DVC when we're down there. I actually think the chances are quite high that it could happen.

My goal was to do the research etc before hand and then buy down there at the end of the trip provided the whole experience didn't have her wanting to poke out her eyes with hot pokers....

For purely emotional reasons I've been wanting to buy into the Sandwich.

However, considering I'd buy 160/max to start... if I account for the explaination of the new booking system I doubt I'd have an easy time AT ALL staying at my 'home resort'. My guess is people with huge numbers of points could work the system such that it would be an impossible situation to get a holiday week etc.

Now factor in the high costs.... that means I'd, in theory, be paying so much more to pretty much stay at another DVC for all my trips since points will be treated the same.

Whine whine I know... but I'm all dissapointed!

I think the concern over big point owners hosing others by "walking" reservations may appear a little more pronounced than it may play out. For the most part this will only impact people trying to make reservations for rooms with very little inventory like concierge rooms during high demand times.

I wouldn't use that as the only criteria in your buying decision. Now the point cost and the points per stay thing, yeah that would of course be a really good reason to make a decision.

Both things are up in the air in my mind until the new booking policy settles in and the points and price are announced for BLT.

erikthewise

06-30-2008, 07:05 PM

robinb

06-30-2008, 07:06 PM

I am a rampant frog

http://northshield.rollofarms.org/img/devices/fullgif/eithniingentalorgain.gif

greenban

06-30-2008, 07:22 PM

http://northshield.rollofarms.org/img/devices/fullgif/eithniingentalorgain.gif

Bravo!

Thank you Robin, I will add the Rampant Frog to my coat of arms!

-Tony

ETA: The blowing of one's own horn, makes it so much more fitting.....;)

SevenSeasGirl

06-30-2008, 08:03 PM

Well, it kind of makes sense for Disney to offer BLT at $125. Between AKV and BLT, it will create two different price points for potential buyers. For those that inquire into BLT ownership, many will be persuaded to buy AKV instead, thinking that they're getting a bargain compared to BLT.

lenshanem

06-30-2008, 08:53 PM

I dunno. I wanted that MK view. But, now with the new booking policy even if I had home resort advantage I could possibly not get that MK view, especially for our annual NYE trip! I'm so sad... :violinist I really don't know what we'll do when they start sales. $120 to $125 is too much, too. I was hoping for a member incentive.

Do people really think a DVC Poly will happen? I have no interest in a DVC GF, but a DVC Poly... :dancingba I might kick myself if we bought BLT and they then built at the Poly. Course, you can't walk back to your room. I love that about BCV.

Beca

07-07-2008, 06:15 AM

I don't know why I bother going to the DIS anymore, it's obvious all the GOOD info is right here on MO.

Thanks Tony!

And DC!

Hi Keys (my new & old friend!! ;) Thx, btw...my first "friend" on this board..whatever that means!!)

All the good scoop is definitely here!!!

cheapmom

07-07-2008, 02:13 PM

Any news????
Is there anyone out there that was planning on buying but will not do so if points come online at $120+? Just curious?

robinb

07-07-2008, 02:26 PM

Any news????
Is there anyone out there that was planning on buying but will not do so if points come online at $120+? Just curious?I really want to own at BLT, but a 20% increase over current pricing would give me pause. In addition, I can no longer have the same chance to get a MK view over my annual NYE trip with the new booking procedures. So ... if it's too expensive I'll save my money and just book my BLT trips at the 7-month window over the summer and keep my fingers crossed for a MK view.

tomandrobin

07-07-2008, 02:35 PM

I really want to own at BLT, but a 20% increase over current pricing would give me pause. In addition, I can no longer have the same chance to get a MK view over my annual NYE trip with the new booking procedures. So ... if it's too expensive I'll save my money and just book my BLT trips at the 7-month window over the summer and keep my fingers crossed for a MK view.

We are taking the same approach to BLT.

When rumors first surfaced about the Contemporary, I was not interested. About a year hs ago, I was semi excited about owning BLT. Now we are back to not interested in owning BLT.

If we want to stay there, we'll take our chance at the 7 month mark. We also own some nice timeshares at Atlantis and St. John that we can direct trade into BLT.

zulaya

07-07-2008, 02:35 PM

I wasn't completely on board as we are perfectly happy with BCV and AKV. But I had thought about it. $120/pt though takes me from "on the fence" into the "no way" section of buying BLT.

salmoneous

07-07-2008, 02:36 PM

Disney was never able to fill the garden wings of the CR to folks willing to pay "any price" to stay there. Rack rates are lower than at BWI/BC, and those rooms still fill slower than the Epcot resort rooms, and have more discounts and offers.

I haven't a clue how BLT will sell, or at what price. I suspect Disney will shot for the moon and ask for a lot. Why not? If folks aren't willing to pay, they can always cut rates. But I just don't get the automatic assuption that people will be willing to pay a lot more for BTL than BWV/BVC, when CR doesn't have that kind of pull on the CRO side.

Sal

NYDVC

07-07-2008, 02:38 PM

There is a filing with either FL or Orange County where the DVC had to list the maximum points charged for BLT rooms. They could charge less for some, more for other nights, but the maximum could not be exceeded. This chart was favorable to AKVs point structure. However, then can modify it and change it up and until sales start (are approved). It is expected to change upward, way upward. I see if I can find the link to the administrator's post of said document.

-Tony

ETA Linkee Thingee ===> http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13511&highlight=maximum+point+reallocation

Expected to go up? who, what? I have not heard that. why say such a thing? Is that usual that the max use point chart filed is not what is sold for? Especially dont like hearing that from the frog!!!!:rant:

way up mean way more points to stay.. Not liking that. Anybody have a idea how much upward? I cant wait for the charts to be published. so many questions will be answered. I really want to own there, but not at a rediculus cost.

cheapmom

07-07-2008, 02:53 PM

I can't buy points at $120. If they are in the $110 ballpark with a decent points chart I will probably buy about 75 points.

MouseMagic

07-07-2008, 07:22 PM

I'm one of the ones on the fence. We don't own yet. When I got back to seriously looking at puchasing and stumbled on the info on BLT I instantly wanted to own *there* because of very fond childhood memories.

That said... I'm waiting to see what Disney comes out with because of a few factors.

1. My intial buy-in will probably be the minimum with intentions of adding on as we save
2. The reservation system will probably mean I'm screwed for the BLT even with the 11 month window if I want a peak time...which I know I will for spring trips in the future.
3.Accounting for #2, if I buy at BLT at $120/pt and can't stay there because I dont own enough points to work the system then I am paying a premium to stay at the other DVC resorts

Anyhow #3 doesn't mean that I particularly have anything against another DVC resort! It just means I don't want to pay 25% (or so) more per trip to do so.

Frankly if I think about it, I'm better off taking the 25% I'd in theory be spending and buying that % in points on a loaded resale contract and I'd have a better 'chance' at actually staying at BLT.

Ah well... at least that is where my very un-DVC educated mind is!

:D
Dora

robinb

07-07-2008, 09:08 PM

2. The reservation system will probably mean I'm screwed for the BLT even with the 11 month window if I want a peak time...which I know I will for spring trips in the future.FWIW, I don't think the current reservation system will completely block you from BLT at the 11 month window, even over NYE. You will probably still be able to get the less desirable views.

HauntedPirate

07-07-2008, 09:45 PM

At $120/pt and higher per-night rates, I think I'd rather find a BCV interest and buy that, or an OKW that expires in 2057.

TikiTwinsDad

07-07-2008, 10:09 PM

This doesn't really affect me too much, because right now we don't plan to add points at BLT (never a big fan of the Contemporary theme, despite having stayed there twice with my parents and having fond 1980s-era memories - TTM did not stay there so no memories for her). I realize the monorail is a big attraction - and possible MK views - though I think views for me personally are generally over-rated and over-valued (I know many would disagree).

However, I see a bit of outrage and indiginity from folks saying they'd pay $110 but not $120. In the grand scheme of things, that's a 9.1% difference, which to me anyway seems like if you are willing to pay that much ($110) - the extra $10/point isn't that big of a deal (I realize there is a price breaking point). Or put another way. If you wanted to buy 75 points that would cost you $9000 at $120 and $8250 at $110 or $750. I know times are tough and every dollar matters, but, if I were of the mindset that I loved the Contemporary and/or wanted to walk to the MK and/or be on the monorail, I don't think this extra $750 (especially when compared to years of theoretical vacation enjoyment) would be the breaking point. Even comparing to the AKV prices of $104/point, it's a $1200 difference.

Now, I realize (especially as some have gloomily forecast) you may need more than 75 points to guarantee THE room you want at THE time (particularly if the points charts are less generous). So, this is all subject to change, but I'm just trying to understand some of the irritation.

BTW, I also agree with Salmoneous, particularly, that Disney may be inclined to over-value the BLT especially with other park-close resorts like BCV (with its pool) and BWV. Although I don't think you can compare it to the Garden Wings, which were much like the poor stepsister to the A-frame tower. There's something to be said for the grandeur of the tall building and the views.

kimberh

07-08-2008, 03:51 AM

If they can fill CRV/BLT with people who want it "regardless of point cost", more power to them! But I'm very skeptical at $125 plus increased points.

Anyone who has been in sales for more than a week knows that a lot of those on that arms-length list won't come through when sales begin. At the prices being mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised to see 25%-50% balk. And it will take a LOT of arms-length lists to sell it out.

Actually I wouldn't mind if DVC has a little trouble selling BLT. That will keep the price more reasonable for PRV! :D

This is exactly my thoughts. Unless Disney is marketing this to the Europeans/Foreigners they could be out pricing the Americans. The Dollar is so weak abroad, they can come over, have a very cheap vacation. We are in Sales, You can outprice yourself. I have never liked Contemporary decor, I will wait this one out. I love the Poly, maybe in a few years it will have some DVC floors in it.

hilaw

07-08-2008, 06:26 AM

Whether the MO neighborhood buys at around $120/point or not, I still would like to see if pricing is sustainable at those levels. If it is, then our resale values may at least hold their values.

Blue&Gold

07-08-2008, 06:39 AM

Only time, and the market, will tell.

I'm not saying I'm not concerned about the $$$ per point cost---I am, but it is only one piece of the puzzle. I don't buy cars based on sticker... There are incentives, and oh, yeah, features of the vehicle.

If the resort, rooms and features (pool, whatever) are out of this world, then maybe. If anything, the more I look at the map of WDW and consider my family vacation pattern, the less inclined I am to buy at the Sandwich. I know I've "said" this before, but for everyone who wants to see Wishes on their balcony there is going to be a family that can't get the kids to sleep because of the noise!

DVC-Owner

07-08-2008, 06:39 AM

Thanks for the update... seems the "scoop" is always available on MO!

Gaston

07-08-2008, 08:39 AM

T... The Dollar is so weak abroad, they can come over, have a very cheap vacation. ....
I was told that Disney is now actively seeking the Euro market, as they can now buy in at roughly $9000.00 for 160 points. Anyone know if there is a new marketing campaign in Europe?

spiceycat

07-08-2008, 02:08 PM

hey Europe and Asia both have money.

so that would not surprise me.

PolyColleen

07-08-2008, 05:39 PM

I so appreciate all the information that is shared here. It has made avoiding the EVIL BOARD so much easier! Thanks.

My family is in the "No way we'd pay $125" group. I lecture my teen daughter often about recognizing a rip off, usually when she wants a flimsy Tshirt from some mall store just because of the logo, and this deal is starting to sound similar... We won't buy OR stay at the sandwich if the points are too high, on principle if nothing else. We can go over there, walk around, maybe even swim -- then go back to our room and my beloved Beach Club for way less points!

Also -- ALERT! I was just at the Contemp on the monorail on July 4th and a MAJOR change has occurred! The "popsicle trees" are gone! Those trees lining the front entrance (that were cut in the shape of the Jello popsicles you make at home in Dixie Cups) have been removed and "normal" young trees are in their place. It kind of broke my heart -- those ugly, overpruned popsicles have been there since Day #1. We have family photos from the 70s and those trees are there... Kinda sad.

disneymom08

07-08-2008, 06:27 PM

Richard Bruvofetc

07-08-2008, 06:45 PM

This is exactly my thoughts. Unless Disney is marketing this to the Europeans/Foreigners they could be out pricing the Americans. The Dollar is so weak abroad, they can come over, have a very cheap vacation. We are in Sales, You can outprice yourself. I have never liked Contemporary decor, I will wait this one out. I love the Poly, maybe in a few years it will have some DVC floors in it.

If only it were that cheap. Prices may be relatively cheap because of the exchange rate but you have to take into account the airfare. UK to Florida is cheaper than Europe to Florida. Flight tickets can cost £900 ($1800). Ours for this October cost £550 each (£1650/$3300). 3 days after we booked the tickets had gone upto £700. Who's to guess what it will be next year. To justify that amount, and the time it takes to get to Florida, we can't really take the 2-3 day holiday, so it's usually 10-14 days.

With regards to Disney marketing to Europeans.....if only.

Richard Bruvofetc

07-08-2008, 06:49 PM

I was told that Disney is now actively seeking the Euro market, as they can now buy in at roughly $9000.00 for 160 points. Anyone know if there is a new marketing campaign in Europe?

Who told you that? If that is the case, tell me where to join the queue. The best I can see is approx $16,000 for 160 points.

spiceycat

07-08-2008, 06:56 PM

I have heard estimates on point costs once BLT is offered anywhere from $114 to $125. From what little I know about DVC this seems to be quite a jump. Does anyone know generally what the price point increase increments have been - does this follow their trend?

like the hotels 8% to 10% is generally the price increase per year. Assuming it is still $104 (right?) then this is a price increase of 20% for $125

for $114 it between 9% and 10% - so that number is reasonable.

robinb

07-08-2008, 06:59 PM

I have heard estimates on point costs once BLT is offered anywhere from $114 to $125. From what little I know about DVC this seems to be quite a jump. Does anyone know generally what the price point increase increments have been - does this follow their trend?Here's a DVC pricing history:
http://www.mouseowners.com/info/showentry.php?e=166

disneymom08

07-08-2008, 07:03 PM

Wow, from looking at this chart it seems that historically the point increase is about $3-$5 per point. Does anyone have any insight on why they would go 3-4 times their normal increase?

salmoneous

07-08-2008, 07:09 PM

Does anyone have any insight on why they would go 3-4 times their normal increase? Because they think they can get it.

If I had to bet, I think they will go with $108-110/point and only modest incentives. Bringing the effective cost from about $90 today to $105. If Disney thinks they can get $105, why should't they charge that much? Worst thing that could happen is they get somewhat slow sales and have to increase the incentives. As long as they've got AKV selling for an effective $90-95/point, there's little to loose, as folks unwilling to pay top dollar can still drop down and buy something from Disney.

kimberh

07-08-2008, 07:14 PM

This is not about Disney, but I was just on a Southern Caribbean Cruise... met 3 couples from Great Britian (all traveling separate) They were telling me how cheap it is for them to take a vacation over here. One couple was from a different ship, we were taking a joint shore excursion. All of them had even been to Vegas, California (which I have not been to either) one was a London cab driver. All three were taking a two week cruise, they were cruising all of the Southern Caribbean. We were just doing one week, then back home.

They all said as long as the Dollar is weak in Europe and the pound is strong, they will continue to travel like this.

One family had even had their daughter's wedding at the Dominican Republic, I asked what they did for a living...average working class. It has to be the strength of the pound. This is value of the Dollar vs pound and Euro. This is part of the reason we are paying so much for gas now!

If Disney thinks they can put a skyhigh price on BLT to see how many buyers they get, they will. It is all about the bottom line, which it should be. It will be our choice if we buy or not. I will be in the "Or Not" column. We need the value of the dollar to rise.

HauntedPirate

07-08-2008, 07:19 PM

Why the per point premium, both in price and room rate? Because it's the perception that the Contemporary location (monorail and MK access) is a premium. There will be those who will buy into it. A lot of people here may not be among them. I'm not saying that it's not worth a premium, but it may not be worth the premium Disney is putting on it. Hell, I'd love to be able to walk to MK and take the monorail to Epcot - I have 4 kids, all under 8 and we'll probably spend a lot of time in those parks in the next 10 years. But beyond that is how we need to think about it.

StotheK

07-08-2008, 08:45 PM

As far as the amount of the anticipated price increase goes... why not? Would it be better to start lower, realize the thing is selling like hotcakes and try to jack up the price or... Start high, see how many people jump on it. If sales are a little weaker, throw in some incentives here and there to get back down to the lower price and make it look like you're selling the bargain of the century.

disneymom08

07-08-2008, 09:27 PM

I guess I was just surprised in that in the 17 years Disney has been selling the DVC is has consistently bumped the prices up $3 to $5 every increase. So in 19 instances they have been consistant - why $18 this go round. Do they think this product will be that much better and more superior to all of the other resorts? And if so why? Aren't there 3 other resorts on the monorail? So it can't be that because those resorts only gained the regular price increase when they opened. It can't be that the market is so great. So what is it? Just curious.

DVC Mike

07-08-2008, 11:28 PM

I guess I was just surprised in that in the 17 years Disney has been selling the DVC is has consistently bumped the prices up $3 to $5 every increase. So in 19 instances they have been consistant - why $18 this go round. Do they think this product will be that much better and more superior to all of the other resorts?

No one knows what price DVC will charge for BLT. I happen to think it may be $112-$114 if sales start this year, or higher if sales start next year.

hilaw

07-09-2008, 04:45 AM

REGARDLESS OF THE RESORT IN VOGUE AT THE TIME:

1991 to 1994 about $10 point increase, SLOW real estate market.

1994 to 1998 less than $10 point increase, VERY SLOW real estate market.

From 1998 to 2001 $10 point increase may have been due to the moving real estate market.

From 2001 to 2004 $20 point increase may have been due to the RED HOT real estate market.

From 2004 to 2007 $10 point increase may have been due to the cooling real estate market.

2007 to Present: VERY, VERY SLOW
Historically, price increase should be modest, regardless of Vogue factor.
Even BLT shouldn't support $120+ points from a historical point.

NYDVC

07-09-2008, 12:08 PM

No one knows what price DVC will charge for BLT. I happen to think it may be $112-$114 if sales start this year, or higher if sales start next year.

ITA Mike, where is this 125 figure coming from? Cant see the logic for a 25% price increase. Especially in this economy.

erikthewise

07-09-2008, 01:32 PM

One family had even had their daughter's wedding at the Dominican Republic, I asked what they did for a living...average working class. It has to be the strength of the pound. This is value of the Dollar vs pound and Euro. This is part of the reason we are paying so much for gas now!

If Disney thinks they can put a skyhigh price on BLT to see how many buyers they get, they will. It is all about the bottom line, which it should be. It will be our choice if we buy or not. I will be in the "Or Not" column. We need the value of the dollar to rise.

Except that Britons (and other Europeans for the most part) are paying twice as much per liter for gas as we are, with currencies taken into account. They just don't use nearly as much as we do.

Agree that price will be largely determined by Disney's perceptions. We can only hope they are not too delusional about it.

salmoneous

07-09-2008, 02:44 PM

For the past two years, Europeans have had the best of both worlds - cheap flights and a strong euro/pound. Disney sold some, but not a ton, of DVC in that environment.

With the rising cost of airline tickets, and fears that they may go a lot higher in the future, I don't see DVC growing their European sales in the next few years, even if the dollar continues to fall.

Blue&Gold

07-09-2008, 03:01 PM

ITA Mike, where is this 125 figure coming from? Cant see the logic for a 25% price increase. Especially in this economy.

Someone pulled it out of their backside... No one other than DVD Management knows what they plan on charging. Back a bit when the "Kingdom Tower" Documents leaked there was hyperventilating because the generic sales contract included in the submissions to the State had a price point of something like $160... IMO, Disney may "get" a 25% or greater premium for the new development, but it won't be solely due to point pricing... It will be through a combination of higher pricing and higher point charts.

greenban

07-09-2008, 06:40 PM

Someone pulled it out of their backside... No one other than DVD Management knows what they plan on charging. Back a bit when the "Kingdom Tower" Documents leaked there was hyperventilating because the generic sales contract included in the submissions to the State had a price point of something like $160... IMO, Disney may "get" a 25% or greater premium for the new development, but it won't be solely due to point pricing... It will be through a combination of higher pricing and higher point charts.

It was my rump, and I did state it was my opinion!

Rumporigin or not, even frogs are allowed opinions.

May I also say, I hope I am wrong?

-Tony

robinb

07-09-2008, 07:34 PM

It was my rump, and I did state it was my opinion!

Rumporigin or not, even frogs are allowed opinions.

May I also say, I hope I am wrong?

-Tony

Hmmm .... or perhaps you are just ...

http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/funny-frog-pictures.jpg

greenban

07-09-2008, 07:53 PM

Hmmm .... or perhaps you are just ...

http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/funny-frog-pictures.jpg

Robin!

I love that photo (White's Tree Frog or Litoria caerulea, BTW)

Thanks for making me smile!

-Tony

Blue&Gold

07-09-2008, 08:07 PM

It was my rump, and I did state it was my opinion!

Rumporigin or not, even frogs are allowed opinions.

May I also say, I hope I am wrong?

-Tony

In most things, I would hope you are never wrong. In this, I hope that you are right in that you are wrong.

I take it on faith that most opinions that are arrived at by way of your rump are quite authoritative.

robinb

07-09-2008, 08:33 PM

Robin!

I love that photo (White's Tree Frog or Litoria caerulea, BTW)

Thanks for making me smile!

-Tony

Thanks :). I just get a kick out of finding frog photos for you. I can't explain it.

jdg345

07-12-2008, 03:27 PM

Hi Kim:

Thanks for the quick posting.

DC expects no incentives other than an AKV style founders something or another. He also believes the last minute meetings are twofold......

1) a recreation of the points chart (higher per night)

2) a last ditch effort by conventions to get a piece of this tower for their use (esp. with convention bookings up).....

:reporter:DC:reporter: has dinner and :beer: drinks :beer:scheduled with two VPs (one WDW, one DVD) later this week, has promised me a call the very next :drool:morning.:drool:

-Tony

ETA: OOPS forgot to add into the original post.

The 11+7 booking changes have been an umitigated disaster. This was planned to save DVC money, by reducing MS' reservation costs, nothing else. Since they get 12% no matter what, it was *NOT* done for member's benefit, just to save them some coin. However, Managent types who don't know the system (i.e. weren't MS-Guides in the past, or DVC Owners) came up with this change, not realizing the effects and abuse potential. Senior Management (read as VP level), who started as a MS-Guide was able to explain what some of the Owners saw as problematic.

They are now tallying and reading every complaint wheither by email, snail mail, phone, or to a MS-Advisor.

If enough people complain, it will be reversed.

However, I remain in favor of the change as it unfairly benefits me!

How'd that dinner go? :drool: