BLT and BWV/BCV Resales

[BWV Dreamin]

Hello all! With the unoffical opening of BLT to happen unoffically sometime this year, how do you think it will affect the BWV/BCV resales? There has been talk that SSR's resales have declined, in part, due to its size. BWV/BCV has always had location, location, location working in their favor. Now that BLT will also have that location, do you forsee the resale values to decline regarding BWV/BCV? We could also ask this question of AKV as well. Curious to hear from you financial guru's here! :teacher:

[DVC Mike]

I don't think the resale value of BCV and BWV will be impacted, as they will still offer walking distance to two theme parks (Epcot and DHS).

BLT will offer walking to the MK, but some folks simply prefer Epcot and DHS to MK.

[JimP]

I don't think the resale value of BCV and BWV will be impacted, as they will still offer walking distance to two theme parks (Epcot and DHS).

BLT will offer walking to the MK, but some folks simply prefer Epcot and DHS to MK.

I think there is a chance that BCV and BWV prices will creep up slightly... IF (and only if) DVC raises the entry price for points for BLT. I think that could establish a a "new pricepoint" for walk-to resorts.

/Jim

[TrvlPrincess]

I have observed more contracts for sale for both resorts in the resale. I was shocked of how many, months ago it was hard to find a resale for both but in the latter months I have noticed increases, but I think some will hold on to them because that is the resort they want to call a home, other want to call home another one!

[gblast123]

There is a related thread on this precise topic.

http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14244

This was more directed toward the effect of BLT on VWL, as that is the one with the closest proximity towards Magic Kingdom.

However, there was some discussion on regard effects on BWV/BCV.

I think that it will clearly have an effect on resales (resale prices will drop).

DAvid

[BWV Dreamin]

Thanks David....really enjoyed that thread. I can't wait to see Dave's t-shirt!:hehehehe:

[tinker_me_happy]

It would be interesting to see. I would love someone with a 50 point BCV contract to want to sell 16 months from now so I could scoop it up!!

[TrvlPrincess]

It would be interesting to see. I would love someone with a 50 point BCV contract to want to sell 16 months from now so I could scoop it up!!

I saw this today:
Boardwalk Villas Membership expires 2042 - Annual Dues $5.04 per point

25 points. October use year. 25 points coming on 10/1/08 and 25 points coming on 10/1/09. Closing Costs=$322 Priced at $92/pt ($2300) Ref# BW25-10-0619-sd

50 points. September use year. 50 points coming on 9/1/09 and 50 points coming on 9/1/10. Closing Costs=$322 Priced at $85/pt ($4250) Ref# BW50-09-0614-rm

75 points. September use year. 75 points coming on 9/1/09 and 75 points coming on 9/1/10. Closing Costs=$359 Priced at $88/pt ($6600) Ref# BW75-09-0619-sd

In the TimeShare store

[JimP]

I think that it will clearly have an effect on resales (resale prices will drop).

David,

You very well could be right. I do think that VWL will go down a bit because BLT will be in more direct competition for a significant segment (IE: direct non-bus access to MK). In my way of thinking... several different factors (not all BLT related) can push the prices of BCV/BWV up or down. In the list below, + for up, - for down.

- Time: Eventually the contracts will be worth zero... hence prices must decay eventually.

+ Raising of "new" prices from Disney

- BLT gives a new "walk to" option, creating competition for BCV/BWV

+ BLT drives up awareness... and sets a new price point for being within walking distance (assumes BLT has higher prices than other DVCs)

- BLT more desirable than BCV/BWV especially for families with small children... and for those wanting "the newest"

+ BCV/BWV more desirable for "older" families because of Epcot dining options

+ AKV creates many more members without a "walk to" option (similar to SSR, but not as dramatic)... raising the value of all resorts with "walk to" options.

- AKV might get steeper incentives... which pulls prospective purchasers away from resale and to Disney.

- Disney offers 100 pt contracts to first time buyers.

- Economy: Fewer people looking at "discretionary spending".


With all of the things going on... I think it will be difficult to tell what specific items are driving the price.

/Jim

[BWV Dreamin]

David,

You very well could be right. I do think that VWL will go down a bit because BLT will be in more direct competition for a significant segment (IE: direct non-bus access to MK). In my way of thinking... several different factors (not all BLT related) can push the prices of BCV/BWV up or down. In the list below, + for up, - for down.

- Time: Eventually the contracts will be worth zero... hence prices must decay eventually.

+ Raising of "new" prices from Disney

- BLT gives a new "walk to" option, creating competition for BCV/BWV

+ BLT drives up awareness... and sets a new price point for being within walking distance (assumes BLT has higher prices than other DVCs)

- BLT more desirable than BCV/BWV especially for families with small children... and for those wanting "the newest"

+ BCV/BWV more desirable for "older" families because of Epcot dining options

+ AKV creates many more members without a "walk to" option (similar to SSR, but not as dramatic)... raising the value of all resorts with "walk to" options.

- AKV might get steeper incentives... which pulls prospective purchasers away from resale and to Disney.

- Disney offers 100 pt contracts to first time buyers.

- Economy: Fewer people looking at "discretionary spending".


With all of the things going on... I think it will be difficult to tell what specific items are driving the price.

/Jim

Very interesting analysis. The economist wannabe in me thinks that actually Jim may be right on with his theory that BWV/BCV could actually increase in resales value. We can safely assume the points per night will be higher. It is safe to assume there will be a dramatic increase in price per point. If the convienence of walking to MK makes this a big draw, BWV/BCV have the same convienence. Since there has been no direct competition other than resales, BLT can now set a new resales floor for the Epcot resorts.

[JimP]

Very interesting analysis. The economist wannabe in me thinks that actually Jim may be right on with his theory that BWV/BCV could actually increase in resales value. We can safely assume the points per night will be higher. It is safe to assume there will be a dramatic increase in price per point. If the convienence of walking to MK makes this a big draw, BWV/BCV have the same convienence. Since there has been no direct competition other than resales, BLT can now set a new resales floor for the Epcot resorts.

Thanks for the compliments... but as a BWV owner, I am not quite objective. Hence... my analysis may be biased toward my desires, rather than reality.

I really value the opinions of other critical thinkers in this area.

/Jim

[hilaw]

If I may add my two cents...

This economy is having a big impact. Do numbers of available resales bear this out? How about "days on the market"?

Some purely economic factors (negative) which may downwardly affect resale prices:
1. Airfares and scheduling of flights.
2. Frequent flyer changes/difficulty.
3. Stock and Housing markets.
4. Oil created inflation.
5. Other economic inflation.

Direct purchase of BLT may be affected by economic factors, but IMHO when people take the "tour" impulsive purchases make for less consideration of economic factors.

You should have seen the line on my Disney Cruise to speak with DVC reps. DVC reps also had a nearby captive audience. Prospective purchasers could pass by DVC booth several times daily. Thus, DVC reps also had multiple chances to close the deal.